Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rebound of lithium carbonate futures has deviated significantly from the fundamentals. Although the demand for new energy vehicles remains resilient, factors such as the widening of the spot discount, the continuous increase in inventory, and the narrowing profit margins of downstream cell enterprises all suppress high prices. Short - term capital push may continue under the influence of market news, but as new production capacities such as the Mami Cuo Salt Lake are gradually put into operation, and the resistance of cathode material manufacturers to high prices increases, it is expected that the futures price will return to the fundamental logic within the next 1 - 2 weeks, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the previous trading day. However, the basis weakened significantly, expanding from - 580 yuan/ton on July 11 to - 2,680 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient follow - up power in the spot market. The trading volume of the main contract soared 151.87% to 1.015 million lots, reaching a recent single - day high, and the open interest increased 10.31% to 356,000 lots [1] - **Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Changes**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity slightly increased to 62%, and the medium - term supply was expected to be loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton respectively, and there was no obvious pressure on the cost side. In early July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 21% year - on - year but decreased 11% month - on - month, with short - term demand growth slowing down. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose moderately, while most cell prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials and mainly made rigid purchases. The social inventory of lithium carbonate climbed for four consecutive weeks to 141,000 physical tons, reaching a new high this year, and the warehouse receipts also accumulated, indicating insufficient actual digestion capacity in the spot market [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 64,280 yuan/ton on July 11 to 66,480 yuan/ton on July 14, an increase of 3.42%. The basis weakened from - 580 yuan/ton to - 2,680 yuan/ton, a change rate of - 362.07%. The open interest of the main contract increased 10.31%, and the trading volume increased 151.87%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium concentrates and some related products also had corresponding changes [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. The abnormal fluctuations in the futures market were mainly driven by short - term capital flows, not directly related to the industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the general acceptance range of downstream enterprises, and only some enterprises with rigid procurement needs maintained basic transactions. Although some lithium salt producers have tried to adjust prices, the overall quotation strategy remains cautious [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale volume was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 0% [7] - **Industry News**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment in a project that received a construction permit, which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes. Zhongkuang Resources plans to carry out a technical upgrade project for its lithium salt production line. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project has a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan and is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [9]