人民财讯8月23日电，永兴材料（002756）8月23日在互动平台表示，公司锂云母精矿价格根据相关规定 确定，不存在故意做低锂云母精矿价格的情况。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,600 tons week-on-week, with a slight increase in the production of spodumene and mica. In July, Chile exported 13,600 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons to 142,400 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has stopped production, creating a short - term supply - demand gap [6]. - Demand side: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the terminal market were 987,000 units, a 12.0% increase year-on-year and an 11.2% decrease month-on-month [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine will create a supply - demand gap of thousands of tons, and it is expected that the lithium price will be strong. If the mine resumes production quickly, the lithium price may fall. If the scope of mine shutdowns expands, the lithium price center will further increase [6]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In June, the import volume was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month-on-month. In May, imports from Australia decreased by 31% month-on-month, from South Africa increased by 87% month-on-month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 3% month-on-month [10]. - **Lithium concentrate price**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [13]. - **Domestic lithium carbonate production**: In July, China's monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a 4% increase month-on-month and a 26% increase year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling increased by 14% and 10% respectively month-on-month, while that from lepidolite and salt lakes decreased by 8% and 2% respectively [16]. - **Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China**: From January to June, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a 11.3% increase year-on-year. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, also with a slight week-on-week increase [23]. Demand Side - **Positive electrode factory capacity utilization**: From January to June, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes was 1.48 million tons, a 47.8% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of ternary positive electrodes was 278,000 tons, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. In May, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.8%, and that of ternary materials was 49.5% [30]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to May this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million units, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million units, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and US sales were 517,000 units, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [34]. - **China's new energy vehicle market**: From January to June, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 6.934 million units, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. From July 1st to July 20th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% decrease month-on-month [37]. - **Power battery production**: In June, China's total production of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase month-on-month and a 51.4% increase year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase year-on-year [42]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [47]. - **New energy storage installation**: From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% increase in power and a 112.94% increase in capacity year-on-year. In June, the installed capacity was 2.33 GW/5.63 GWh, a significant decrease year-on-year and month-on-month [50]. - **August downstream production scheduling**: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side [56]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt factory cost**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene is 79,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,201 yuan/ton week-on-week. The theoretical production profit is - 11,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 201 yuan/ton week-on-week [53]. - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 5,060, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The basis of the contract turned negative [59]. - **Contract spread**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, with the spread increasing by 920 compared to last week [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit compared with the previous trading day. The basis weakened to - 9,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price discount to the futures further widened [2] - The position of the main contract increased from 362,054 lots on July 18 to 491,088 lots on July 25, an increase of 35.6%. The market divergence intensified, with both short - hedging and long - speculation forces entering the market. The trading volume decreased from 1.77 million lots to 1.2 million lots week - on - week, and the trading activity declined marginally [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, but the compliance issue of lithium mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi triggered expectations of supply tightening. If the mining right review is not completed on time, production capacity may be limited. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 62.2%. Coupled with the maintenance and shutdown of some production lines of enterprises such as Jiangte Motor and Zangge Mining, short - term supply - side disturbances were strengthened [3] - **Demand side**: The prices of cathode materials continued the slow upward trend. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 240 yuan to 33,495 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.47% to 53,250 yuan/ton. The retail of new energy vehicles decreased by 12% month - on - month in July, and the terminal demand showed seasonal weakness. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate battery cells were basically flat, and downstream replenishment was still mainly based on rigid demand, lacking explosive drivers [3] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate has increased for four consecutive weeks to 143,170 physical tons, and the warehouse receipt pressure has further accumulated, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39% [3] c. Market Summary - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual impact of the Jiangxi mining right review progress on supply and the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From July 25 to July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton to 73,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.19%. The basis increased from - 9,920 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.29%. The position of the main contract decreased from 491,088 lots to 378,472 lots, a decrease of 22.93%. The trading volume decreased from 1,203,424 lots to 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 16.46%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,600 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33%. The market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 745 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased from 850 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 53,000 yuan/ton to 53,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 116,595 yuan/ton to 116,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,255 yuan/ton to 33,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% [6] - From July 18 to July 25, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased from 62.70% to 62.20%, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased from 142,620 physical tons to 143,170 physical tons, an increase of 0.39%. The prices of various types of battery cells remained basically unchanged [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 28, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,737 yuan/ton, a increase of 991 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 - 75,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,900 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 - 72,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,700 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. At the beginning of this week, the lithium carbonate futures market dropped sharply, and the main contract hit the daily limit. This price fluctuation was mainly affected by two factors: on the one hand, it was driven by the linkage effect of the general decline in the prices of other commodities; on the other hand, the news of a mine in Jiangxi continued to disturb the market sentiment. After the futures price dropped significantly, the downstream procurement demand was significantly released, the market inquiry activity increased significantly, and the increase in trading volume pushed the spot price center to move up steadily [7] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 23, from July 1 - 20, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 54.9%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. From July 1 - 20, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [8] c. Industry News - On July 24, large - scale orders were finalized, large - scale funds were quickly deployed, investment and financing and IPOs were booming, and concept stocks set off a daily limit wave. In 2025, the trillion - level humanoid robot market exploded, and various capitals poured into the humanoid robot track [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise this week. On the supply side, the resources of cobalt intermediates were relatively concentrated, and mining enterprises still suspended quotations. After the customs data were released on the weekend, the import volume of cobalt intermediates in China in June dropped significantly, further strengthening the market's expectation of raw material shortage. Traders continued to raise their quotations and reported that there were a small number of transactions of mainstream brands at around 12.5 - 12.6 US dollars per pound. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories reported that the current cost inversion was too serious. If they could not purchase low - cost cobalt intermediates, they would choose to purchase other cobalt raw materials for substitution or choose to reduce production or even stop production. Overall, affected by the extension policy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China's cobalt intermediates will still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has upward momentum, but it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of downstream demand by the increase in raw material prices [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review of the lithium - ion battery graphite market, the integration of anode enterprises was accelerating, and the price of the graphitization market was in a stalemate [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Affected by rumors from the supply side of Jiangxi mines, the price of lithium carbonate has rapidly soared. At the current price level, the acceptance of the spot market by downstream buyers is low, resulting in a small actual trading volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong with frequent speculations, and the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider hedging at high prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and daily increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: Li2508 at 76,500 yuan/ton with a 5.84% increase; Li2509 at 76,680 yuan/ton with a 7.21% increase; Li2510 at 75,460 yuan/ton with a 6.1% increase; Li2511 at 75,000 yuan/ton with a 6.17% increase; Li2512 at 74,680 yuan/ton with a 6.35% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 764 yuan, with a daily increase of 14 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1080 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1655 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5845 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6800 yuan, with a daily increase of 475 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,945 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7200 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1040 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons, a decrease of 2654 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons, an increase of 1544 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons, an increase of 1660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,690 yuan, and the profit is 910 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 74,022 yuan, and the profit is - 6048 yuan [3] Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The price increase is mainly due to supply - side disturbances, which boost market sentiment but have limited impact on the fundamentals. In the short term, strong market sentiment and frequent rumors support futures prices, but the pricing weight of the spot market may increase, and industry players can consider hedging at high prices. Also, the basis between the current spot and the 08 contract has been repaired, which will stimulate the production of warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 70,450 yuan with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 68,800 yuan with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2508 has a closing price of 69,320 yuan with a decline of 3.59%; lithium carbonate 2509 has a closing price of 69,380 yuan with a decline of 4.07%; lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 68,800 yuan with a decline of 3.91%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 68,620 yuan with a decline of 3.7%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 68,780 yuan with a decline of 3.48% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 750 yuan with a daily increase of 8 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,040 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,605 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 5,400 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 6,325 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,665 yuan with a daily increase of 325 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,150 yuan with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,845 yuan with a daily increase of 350 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,675 yuan with a daily increase of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,650 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,070 yuan with a change of 4,850 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan with a change of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan with a change of - 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons with a change of 1,827 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons with a change of - 559 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons with a change of 506 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons with a change of 1,880 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,754 tons with a change of 665 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 67,813 yuan, and the profit is 1,688 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 72,868 yuan, and the profit is - 4,992 yuan [3] Company News - Yichun Yinli, a subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, is expected to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disruptions have boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the actual impact on the fundamentals is limited, with supply increasing and demand remaining stable. Short - term downstream replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space may be limited, and the support for prices may weaken. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,350 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1][2]. - Futures contracts: Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 68,060 yuan/ton, up 2.1%; 2509 at 67,960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; 2510 at 67,580 yuan/ton, up 2.3%; 2511 at 67,180 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; 2512 at 67,500 yuan/ton, up 2.03% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 693 dollars/ton, with a change of 8 dollars/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 910 dollars/ton, with a change of 20 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1465 dollars/ton, with a change of 15 dollars/ton. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4670 dollars/ton; (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5535 dollars/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 31,345 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,650 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,195 yuan/ton, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,115 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade and the main contract is - 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,540 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 480 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons, a decrease of 559 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons, an increase of 506 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons, an increase of 1,880 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,239 tons, a decrease of 416 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 64,189 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 69,638 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7,116 yuan/ton [3]. Company News - On the afternoon of July 17, 2025, Zangge Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice from the Haixi Natural Resources Bureau and the Haixi Salt Lake Administration on July 16, 2025, requiring it to stop illegal lithium resource development activities immediately, rectify actively, and improve legal procedures for resources. It can only resume production after applying and getting approval [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.80%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate decreased slightly, while the cost of purchased lithium mica remained flat. The production profit from spodumene was positive, while that from lithium mica was negative. The cost of the salt lake end was lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.77%, higher than the historical average. The inventory situation was neutral overall [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force increased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production in the next month will be 81,150 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%. The import volume in June was 22,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in the next month will be 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.22%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The supply surplus situation has intensified, and the lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 65,900 - 67,420 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with increases and decreases. The basis also showed different degrees of change, mostly narrowing [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and other upstream products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.15%, while the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of positive electrode materials and lithium batteries also showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of some ternary precursors decreased, while the price of some lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The production, import volume, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. The cost and profit of lithium ore production also changed. For example, the daily production cost of spodumene decreased by 0.09%, and the production profit increased significantly [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% compared with the previous month [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, import volume, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The production capacity and utilization rate also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was 24,450 tons, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous month [17]. 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. The price and cost of lithium batteries also changed. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased by 1.93% [17]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of ternary precursors increased in some series [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The production, demand, and price of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the price of some ternary materials decreased slightly [66]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: The production, demand, and price of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium showed different trends. The cost and profit also changed. For example, the monthly production of phosphorus iron increased by 2.09% [71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate and inventory index also changed. For example, the production of new energy vehicles decreased slightly, and the sales penetration rate decreased by 5.96% [79][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rebound of lithium carbonate futures has deviated significantly from the fundamentals. Although the demand for new energy vehicles remains resilient, factors such as the widening of the spot discount, the continuous increase in inventory, and the narrowing profit margins of downstream cell enterprises all suppress high prices. Short - term capital push may continue under the influence of market news, but as new production capacities such as the Mami Cuo Salt Lake are gradually put into operation, and the resistance of cathode material manufacturers to high prices increases, it is expected that the futures price will return to the fundamental logic within the next 1 - 2 weeks, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the previous trading day. However, the basis weakened significantly, expanding from - 580 yuan/ton on July 11 to - 2,680 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient follow - up power in the spot market. The trading volume of the main contract soared 151.87% to 1.015 million lots, reaching a recent single - day high, and the open interest increased 10.31% to 356,000 lots [1] - **Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Changes**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity slightly increased to 62%, and the medium - term supply was expected to be loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton respectively, and there was no obvious pressure on the cost side. In early July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 21% year - on - year but decreased 11% month - on - month, with short - term demand growth slowing down. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose moderately, while most cell prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials and mainly made rigid purchases. The social inventory of lithium carbonate climbed for four consecutive weeks to 141,000 physical tons, reaching a new high this year, and the warehouse receipts also accumulated, indicating insufficient actual digestion capacity in the spot market [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 64,280 yuan/ton on July 11 to 66,480 yuan/ton on July 14, an increase of 3.42%. The basis weakened from - 580 yuan/ton to - 2,680 yuan/ton, a change rate of - 362.07%. The open interest of the main contract increased 10.31%, and the trading volume increased 151.87%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium concentrates and some related products also had corresponding changes [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. The abnormal fluctuations in the futures market were mainly driven by short - term capital flows, not directly related to the industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the general acceptance range of downstream enterprises, and only some enterprises with rigid procurement needs maintained basic transactions. Although some lithium salt producers have tried to adjust prices, the overall quotation strategy remains cautious [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale volume was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 0% [7] - **Industry News**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment in a project that received a construction permit, which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes. Zhongkuang Resources plans to carry out a technical upgrade project for its lithium salt production line. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project has a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan and is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 690 tons week-on-week to 18,800 tons. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for 2 months, expected to affect the monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 6% increase month-on-month and a 41% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons week-on-week to 140,800 tons. The overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased by 2%-3% month-on-month. The energy storage market improved slightly, slightly exceeding market expectations. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.017 million, a 25% increase year-on-year [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro sentiment, the decline of import data, and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive the market's bullish sentiment. In July, both supply and demand are expected to increase, but the improvement of the fundamentals of lithium carbonate itself is limited. In the short term, the "anti-involution" may still have some support on the emotional side. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side 5 - Month Lithium Spodumene Import Volume Decreased Slightly Month - on - Month - From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, the import volume was 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month-on-month. Imports from Australia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were 371,000 tons, 52,500 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively, with a 24.1% increase, a 29.9% increase, and an 8.2% decrease month-on-month [9]. Lithium Concentrate Price Continued the Rebound Trend - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [12]. June Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased by 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively, while the production from the recycling end decreased by 7% [16]. June Chile's Export of Lithium Carbonate to China Remained at a Low Level - From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% increase year-on-year. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. Spot Price Stabilized and Rebounded - This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, a 2.3% increase week-on-week. The market transaction was relatively dull. Lithium salt plants held prices and were reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made rigid procurement [21]. Demand Side Global New Energy Vehicle Market Started Well - From January to April this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. From January to April, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million, a 23.3% increase year-on-year. From January to May in China, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.605 million, a 44.0% increase year-on-year [29][32]. Power Battery Production Maintained a High Growth Rate - In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 47.9% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 568.1 GWh, a 62.6% increase year-on-year [36]. Domestic Mobile Phone Shipment Increased Slightly Year - on - Year - In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment of China's smartphone market was 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year. From January to December 2024, the production of China's electronic computer整机 in the first quarter was 85.322 million units, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [41]. "Rush to Install" Tide Appeared in Some Provinces in May - From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% and 112.94% increase in power and capacity year-on-year respectively. In May, due to the upcoming implementation of the "Document No. 136", a "rush to install" tide appeared in some provinces [45]. July Downstream Production Schedule Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 2,515 yuan/ton, a 115 yuan/ton decrease from last week. According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month [51]. Other Indicators Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Faced Cost Inversion - The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, a 2,210 yuan/ton increase week-on-week. Under the current lithium price, these manufacturers have fallen into losses [48]. This Week's Basis Narrowed - This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -530, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat week-on-week at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. The Price Difference between Contracts Widened - This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, increasing by 1,800 yuan compared with last week [57].