储能热度吸引资金涌入，碳酸锂基差存在修复需求 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：碳酸锂主力合约11月19日收于99300元/吨，较前一交易 日上涨5780元/吨，突破10万元/吨关口，创2024年6月以来新高。基差进一 步走弱至-8600元/吨，环比扩大4780元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量增至50.3万手，成交量大幅攀升至176.7万 手，显示资金加速入场推动价格上行。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格持平于8670元/吨，锂云母精矿上涨100元/吨至 4565元/吨，原料端成本支撑边际增强。国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持75.34% 高位，锂辉石与盐湖提锂开工率均超60%，11月产量预计与10月持平。大中 矿业加达锂矿年产能5万吨碳酸锂项目推进，但短期供应增量有限。 需求端 ：新能源汽车11月前9日零售同比降5%但环比增16%，储能及动力电 池需求维持韧性。六氟磷酸锂价格跳涨4000元/吨，磷酸铁锂材料上涨365 元/吨，电芯排产环比向好支撑碳酸锂消费。固态电池技术产业化预期升 温，但短期仍依赖现有液态体系需求。 库存与仓单 ：碳酸锂总库存连续四周下降至1 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 85482 k 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -543 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 89096 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6327 y T 习近平将同美国总统特朗普举行会晤。外交部发言人10月29日宣布:经中美双方商定，国家主席习近平将于当地时间10月30日在韩国釜 国总统特朗普举行会晤,就中美关系和双方共同关心的问题交换意见。 t H 需求方面，终端（储能+新能源车）旺季持续，社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅。供给方面,以高位波动为主,暂未现大量增产 需错配下,碳酸锂价格下方支撑明显。 上方主要考虑套保压力,和江西矿端复产预期。整体上,综合供需错配、套保压力和市场 预计短期内碳酸锂价格或宽幅震荡。 员 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司 ...

行情走势 01 产业监测 02 核心数据监测 11月17日，国内工业级碳酸锂（99.0%为主）市场价格集中在8.6-8.8万元/吨，市场均价为8.7万元/吨，较上个工作日价格上涨2.35%；国 内电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）市场价格集中在8.8-9.1万元/吨，市场均价为8.95万元/吨，较上个工作日价格上涨2.87%。 11月17日（周一），碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停，涨幅9%，报95200元/吨，刷新一年余新高。自今年6月以来，碳酸锂连续主力合约区间 涨幅已超56%。 目前碳酸锂市场正迎来一轮由需求驱动的新涨势。与今年第三季度那波涨势不同的是，以往碳酸锂价格大涨多受供给端扰动影响，而这一轮则 与需求端爆发密切相关。 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 SMM电池级碳酸锂指数： 85,010元/吨，环比上涨538元/吨。 电池级碳酸锂市场价： 8.33 - 8.70万元/吨，均价8.515万元/吨，环比上涨800元/吨。 工业级碳酸锂市场价： 8.23 - 8.33万元/吨，均价8.28万元/吨，环比上涨800元/吨。 | | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | 11月12日 | 11月11日 | 11月 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) peak season continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a significant increase, the price of lithium carbonate has obvious support at the bottom. Considering the hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate widely in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan/ton [1] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 86,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 87,660 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.34%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 87,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.39%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2602 is 87,620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.51%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 87,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.28% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O 5% - 6%) is 1,001 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 17 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 8,085 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 205 yuan/ton; the average price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 9,510 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 215 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 355 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 160,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 141,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 3,490 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 210 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 40 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 180 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 120,472 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,481 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 28,270 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,445 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,772 tons, with a weekly decrease of 3,236 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,430 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 27,508 tons, with a daily decrease of 770 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 84,065 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 907 yuan/ton; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 87,365 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6,361 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: In November, downstream production scheduling increases slightly month - on - month, lithium carbonate production decreases slightly, and imports rebound slightly. Supply growth is lower than demand, and inventory depletion is expected to accelerate. The inventory - to - sales ratio in November is expected to further decline. The price will remain high next week. Some funds flow in to layout long - term long positions, and the 2605 contract is more popular [6]. - Medium - term: In December, demand enters the off - season and is difficult to grow significantly. Overseas mine shipments increase, which may ease the tight supply - demand situation. After the production scheduling in mid - to - late November is more certain, the market may start to trade the marginal loosening of supply - demand. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo does not support the price to reach new highs [6]. - Futures strategy: If funds speculate on the improvement of supply - demand driven by energy storage next year and push the price close to the previous high, short - hedging can be considered. Pay attention to the spot trading situation next week. For unilateral trading, there is still short - term rebound momentum, and consider laying out short positions when entering the previous high pressure range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options to cooperate with the profit - taking of futures long positions [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Demand Analysis New Energy Vehicles - China: In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, sales were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The power battery cell production from January to October increased by 44.5% year - on - year to 985.5 GWh, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month in November [12]. - Global: From January to September 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million, while US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, an 86% year - on - year increase [17]. Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage orders are strong due to "export rush" demand and中标 projects in the Middle East, South America, and Australia. From January to October, China's energy storage battery cell production was 409.4 GWh, a 55% year - on - year increase. The inventory of energy storage battery cells is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended. Production in November and December is expected to maintain positive month - on - month growth, supporting lithium carbonate consumption [21]. November Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling - In October, battery production increased by 8% month - on - month, with ternary batteries increasing by 2.3% and lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 10%. In November, battery production is expected to increase by 1.1% month - on - month, with ternary batteries increasing by 0.6% and lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 1.1%. The production scheduling in December is expected to be flat, showing the characteristic of an off - season not being off - peak [26]. Supply Analysis Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Resumes Growth - From January to October, domestic lithium carbonate production was 776,000 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase. The production scheduling in November is 92,000 tons. Compared with May, the operating rate of integrated production capacity increased by 10%, and the operating rate of contract - manufacturing capacity increased by 30% (mainly lithium pyroxene production). The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is in progress [31]. Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - Data shows the production trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, lithium pyroxene, lithium mica, and recycling [33]. Limited Supply Increment of Lithium Carbonate in November - From January to September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 173,000 tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 16,200 tons. Lithium salt imports in November are expected to have limited month - on - month growth. Australian shipments from September to October are higher than the average from January to October, and African Mali will have arrivals in November and December [41]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only a graph of China's lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is shown [43]. Continuous Inventory Depletion of Lithium Carbonate, Reaching the Peak in November - This week, the social inventory decreased by 3,405 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,336 tons, downstream inventory decreasing by 1,280 tons, and other inventory decreasing by 790 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 289 tons this week, and the decline significantly narrowed. The spot basis returned to par, but the spread between 2601 - 2605 widened, reflecting the market's optimistic expectation for the far - month [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 240 million yuan, down 5.9% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 230 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue reached 1.03 billion yuan, up 45.2% year-on-year and 19.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 32.3% year-on-year and 84.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan, a 50.7% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 230 million yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.2%. The net profit for Q3 was 110 million yuan, up 32.3% year-on-year and 84.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Market and Project Updates - The Q3 average price of 97% wet fluorite was 3,401 yuan/ton, down 6.1% year-on-year and 7.9% quarter-on-quarter due to weak market demand. The company produced approximately 300,000 tons of fluorite products from its single mine in the first nine months of 2025, with sales of about 278,000 tons, both showing increases compared to the previous year. In Q3, the single mine produced about 114,000 tons of fluorite products, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [12]. Project Developments - The Baogang mining integration project showed good results, producing approximately 620,000 tons of fluorite powder in the first nine months of 2025, with sales of about 140,000 tons. The production in Q3 was about 230,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.1%. The Jiangxi lithium extraction project remains under pressure, while the Mongolian project is progressing steadily [12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the fluorite market is positive, with prices recovering from previous lows. As of October 28, the price of 97% fluorite powder was 3,574 yuan/ton. The Mongolian project is nearing completion of its pre-treatment phase, and the company is also enhancing its mining capabilities to support future production scale expansion [12]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, driven by its fluorite mining operations and technological advancements [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside space is restricted by the expected increase in future supply. The current low - inventory pattern and demand resilience support the price, and the reluctance of lithium salt manufacturers to sell exacerbates the shortage of spot goods. However, the gradual release of new production capacity such as Dazhong Mining, the supply elasticity after the commissioning of Tianqi Lithium's production line, and the risk of a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales will suppress the momentum for the price to continuously break through the previous high [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium carbonate futures market data change analysis** - **Main contract and basis**: On October 30, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from the previous day. The price center in the past week gradually shifted up from 79,520 yuan/ton to 82,900 yuan/ton, and market sentiment recovered. The basis weakened slightly from - 2,340 yuan/ton on October 29 to - 2,600 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and trading volume**: The position of the main contract continued to rise, reaching 506,900 lots on October 30, a 17.5% increase from 431,200 lots a week ago. The trading volume was 659,400 lots, which declined from the previous day but remained at a high level [1] - **Analysis of industrial chain supply - demand and inventory changes** - **Supply side**: The price of spodumene concentrate remained stable at 7,330 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate rose 3% to 3,775 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate remained at 74.39%, and the output in October may reach a record high [2] - **Demand side**: The retail sales of new energy vehicles from October 1 - 26 were flat year - on - year, but the demand for power batteries was strong, with the prices of ternary cells rising 0.89% - 1.96% within the week. The pre - placement of orders for energy storage and commercial vehicles further boosted the demand for lithium - battery materials [2] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, dropping to 130,400 tons on October 30, a 1.7% decrease from the previous week, and the upstream destocking speed accelerated [2] - **Market summary**: In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside space is restricted by the expected increase in future supply. The current low - inventory pattern and demand resilience support the price, and the reluctance of lithium salt manufacturers to sell exacerbates the shortage of spot goods. However, the gradual release of new production capacity such as Dazhong Mining, the supply elasticity after the commissioning of Tianqi Lithium's production line, and the risk of a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales will suppress the momentum for the price to continuously break through the previous high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 83,400 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day; the basis was - 3,100 yuan/ton, down 19.23% from the previous day; the position of the main contract was 532,871 lots, up 5.13% from the previous day; the trading volume of the main contract was 829,117 lots, up 25.73% from the previous day. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 80,300 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 7,330 yuan/ton, the market price of lepidolite concentrate rose 3% to 3,775 yuan/ton, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose 2.91% to 106,000 yuan/ton, the price of power - type ternary materials rose 0.22% to 139,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose 0.59% to 35,805 yuan/ton [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot market quotation** - On October 30, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,881 yuan/ton, up 674 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 - 81,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 80,000 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,300 - 78,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 77,800 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the center of the main contract shifted up to the range of 82,200 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of downstream material manufacturers continues to rise, and demand supports spot transactions. However, as the price rises, the reluctance of lithium salt manufacturers to sell intensifies, and the market transaction situation is dull. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt manufacturers remains high, with the operating rates of the spodumene and salt - lake ends both maintaining above 60%, becoming the main supply force. It is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October will continue to rise and is expected to break through the historical high. The demand side is stronger. The new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly in both the commercial and passenger vehicle fields, and together with the energy storage market, it presents a pattern of strong supply and demand, continuously driving the demand for lithium - battery materials. In general, although the supply of lithium salt continued to grow steadily in October, due to the strong growth in demand continuously consuming inventory, the upstream inventory is currently at a low level, and the market has presented a significant de - stocking pattern [6] - **Downstream consumption situation** - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 26, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 901,000 units, a 0% year - on - year increase compared with the same period in October last year, and an 8% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9,771,000 units, a 22% year - on - year increase; from October 1 - 26, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles by domestic manufacturers was 1,034,000 units, a 4% year - on - year increase compared with the same period in October last year, and a 5% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale this year was 11,480,000 units, a 29% year - on - year increase [7] - **Industry news** - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's (001203.SZ) "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" was officially approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources, with an annual mining scale of 2.6 million tons/year. The spodumene mining scale is among the top in the industry, and it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year after reaching full production. This key node marks that it is closer to obtaining the mining license and will enter the "production capacity implementation sprint" stage. This mine is the core carrier of the company's strategic transformation from the traditional iron ore field to the new energy mineral track. The approval not only verifies its strength and responsibility in dimensions such as resource development efficiency, safety risk management and control, and green and sustainable operation, but also locks in the certainty of the "exploration - to - mining" process through the full - process authoritative compliance procedures of the Ministry of Natural Resources [9] - On October 20, Tianqi Lithium announced that after repeated commissioning and optimization, the first bag of battery - grade lithium hydroxide products from its 30,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu passed the sampling inspection by the company's internal laboratory, and all parameters were confirmed to meet the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard. Subsequently, the company will continue to commission and optimize this project to achieve continuous and stable production of products and flexible switching of lithium carbonate [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides data charts on the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices, with data sources including iFinD, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [10][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of lithium carbonate is strong while demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The fundamentals are neutral, the inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [8]. - There are bullish factors such as manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Bearish factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline and insufficient willingness of power battery ends to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, higher than the historical average level. It is predicted that the production in October 2025 will be 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.99% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,347 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,592 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 78,206 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 2.03%. The production from it was at a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite was 81,293 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.44%, and the production was also at a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 130,366 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%, higher than the historical average level. The inventory of smelters was 33,681 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.75%, lower than the historical average level. The downstream inventory was 55,275 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.26%, higher than the historical average level. Other inventories were 41,410 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.89% [8]. - **Disk and Position**: The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 2.84% to 906 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.53% to 76,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data Overview**: In terms of supply, the monthly production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed an increasing trend in general. In terms of demand, the monthly demand for lithium - related products also showed certain changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in September 2025 was 87,260 tons, and the monthly demand was - 116,801 tons [17][34]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, recycling materials) have shown different trends [28]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) and the export volume have changed [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have shown different trends [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has changed over the years [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene, lepidolite, recycled materials) have shown different trends [42][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonization, and lithium carbonate causticizing to lithium hydroxide has changed [44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects have changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price and monthly production of lithium battery cells have changed, and the monthly power battery loading volume has increased [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells has changed [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [59]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary precursors have changed [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and there has been a supply - demand gap in some months [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials have changed, and the processing fee has also changed [65]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price, production cost, and profit of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production and weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [73][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [78][79]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the dealer inventory warning index and inventory index have changed [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short - term, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias due to increased purchasing demand during the quarterly peak season, creating a short - term supply - demand mismatch that supports prices from below. The upside space depends on lithium carbonate supply resumption and hedging pressure. In the long - term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 74,350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,100 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 76,180 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.53%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 76,780 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.78%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 77,080 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.69%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 77,120 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.63%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 76,900 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.61% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 857 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1115 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1845 yuan/ton; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 6475 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 145 yuan/ton; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 7650 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 130 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 34,185 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 110 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 156,900 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,300 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 300 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,350 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 200 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2770 yuan/ton with a change of - 890 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continued contract is - 300 yuan/ton with a change of 40 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continued contract is - 340 yuan/ton with a change of 60 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 132,658 tons with a decrease of 2143 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 34,283 tons with a decrease of 464 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 57,735 tons with a decrease of 2030 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 40,640 tons with an increase of 350 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 29,019 tons with a decrease of 873 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,146 yuan/ton with a profit of - 1873 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 77,947 yuan/ton with a profit of - 6672 yuan/ton [3] Technological Breakthrough - A research team led by Huang Xuejie from the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Physics has developed an anion regulation technology to solve the problem of poor contact between the electrolyte and lithium electrodes in all - solid - state metal lithium batteries, and the research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - High demand stimulates downstream to increase lithium carbonate purchases, driving social inventory reduction. The increase in lithium carbonate production may suppress futures prices. In the short - term, supply - demand mismatch pushes up prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,350 with a rise of 350; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,100 with a rise of 350 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 846 with a rise of 17; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 1100 with a rise of 50; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 1825 with a rise of 70; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) average price is 6400 with a rise of 265; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) average price is 7550 with a rise of 300 [1][2] Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2510 closing price is 75,300 with a 2.23% increase; carbonate lithium 2511 closing price is 75,700 with a 2.55% increase; carbonate lithium 2512 closing price is 75,860 with a 2.4% increase; carbonate lithium 2601 closing price is 75,780 with a 2.32% increase; carbonate lithium 2602 closing price is 75,540 with a 2.39% increase [1] Price Differences - Electric - industrial grade lithium carbonate price difference is 2250; electric carbon - main contract price difference is - 2350 with a change of - 410; near - month - first continuous contract price difference is - 160 with a change of 40; near - month - second continuous contract price difference is - 80 with a change of 60 [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,658 with a decrease of 2143; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,283 with a decrease of 464; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,735 with a decrease of 2030; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,640 with an increase of 350; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 30,686 with an increase of 230 [2] Profit Estimation - Cash cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,442, and the profit is - 2159; cash cost of purchased lithium mica concentrate is 77,485, and the profit is - 7190 [3] Technological Breakthrough - Chinese researchers solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research team developed an anion regulation technology, and the results were published in the journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" [3]