ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 碳酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 谢灵 投资咨询号: Z0015788 从业资格号: F3040017 2025/09/26 有色金属研究中心 研究助理 陈宇森 从业资格号: F03123927 数据来源:SMM. 公开新闻整理 100000 锂化合物 平均价 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 73750 -100 3000 80000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 71500 -100 2500 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 60000 2000 碳酸锂2510 73740 0.63% 碳酸锂2511 74040 0. 93% 40000 碳酸锂2512 0. 76% 74060 1000 碳酸锂2601 > 74000 0. 87% 20000 500 碳酸锂2602 73680 0. 71% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 856 0 4-6 (1 i 20 · 5 5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 75328 H 利 tt 江 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -2650 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 78729 F 外购锂云母精矿利润 -8042 行业 ...

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 75297 H 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -2519 78729 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -7944 IT V 《经济参考报》记者近日在青海省海西州大柴旦调查发现,青海柴达木兴华锂盐有限公司（简称"兴华公司"）被举报非法掩埋大量工业危险 （简称"危废"），上级部门责令其在中央环保督察前"未督先改"，该企业却突击将大量己偷埋的危废挖出并易地填理，涉及数量 态环境造成二次伤害。近期，全国非法倾倒处置固体废物专项整治行动启动,计划用三年时间集中开展严打严查。 日 t 污求方面,新能源车传统旺季将至,储能需求旺盛,碳酸锂社会库存持续去库,支撑期价。供给方面,产量整体增加,是压制期价的主要因 另外，周五新华社发布关于青海盐湖环保问题的文章,涉及的盐湖虽然基本没量,但需要注意,在需求端改善及江西矿山 市场是否会再次借机炒作供给端问题。 贡 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资设 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 400 tons week - on - week to 20,400 tons, with a slight increase in output from each raw material end. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month - on - month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year, expected to arrive in China from late September to October. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 981 tons week - on - week to 137,500 tons, continuing the de - stocking trend. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory [6]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in September increased by about 5% month - on - month, and overseas energy storage demand was remarkable. Ningde's production schedule guidance for suppliers in 2026 was revised up to 1100GWh, a 46% increase year - on - year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will follow the movement of lithium salt prices. In July, China's spodumene imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.35% increase month - on - month [6]. - Strategy: Boosted by strong peak - season demand, lithium prices are trending upwards. The news of the possible复产 of the Jianxiakeng Mine has been fully priced in, and the expectation of supply contraction has cooled, but there are still news disturbances. The current lithium price is in a relatively balanced range, suppressed by high inventory and hedging demand on the upside and supported by peak - season demand on the downside. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate within the range of [70,000, 76,000]. Pay attention to the progress of issues at the mine end, and enterprises can consider purchasing on demand when prices are low [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **Lithium concentrate imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.496 million tons of spodumene. In July, imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.4% increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in imports from Australia [10]. - **Lithium concentrate prices**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will fluctuate with lithium salt prices [13]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: From January to August this year, China's cumulative lithium carbonate production was 550,000 tons, a 38.9% increase year - on - year. In August, domestic lithium carbonate production was 80,000 tons, a 7.3% increase month - on - month [17]. - **Lithium carbonate imports**: From January to July, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports were 131,600 tons, basically flat year - on - year. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 6.9% increase year - on - year and a 4.8% decrease month - on - month, expected to arrive in China from late September to October [21]. - **Spot prices**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase week - on - week. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a slight increase week - on - week [24]. - **Profitability of non - integrated plants**: After the lithium price correction, the profitability of non - integrated lithium salt plants deteriorated. Non - integrated spodumene manufacturers had a loss of about 664 yuan/ton, and non - integrated lepidolite manufacturers had a loss of 5,011 yuan/ton [28]. Demand Side - **Cathode material plants**: From January to July, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 1.746 million tons, a 46.4% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative production of ternary cathode was 399,000 tons, an 11.9% increase year - on - year. The industry capacity utilization rate was low. In July, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59.7%, and that of ternary materials was 49.4% [34]. - **Downstream production schedule**: It is expected that the downstream production schedule in September will increase by about 5% month - on - month, and energy storage demand is remarkable [37]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to July this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 10.657 million, a 25.0% increase year - on - year. China and the European market had strong growth, while the US growth slowed down [40]. - **Domestic new energy vehicle market**: From January to August, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 9.592 million, a 36.4% increase year - on - year. From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 438,000, a 6% increase year - on - year and a 10% increase month - on - month [43]. - **Power battery production**: In July, China's total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, a 3.6% increase month - on - month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 831.1GWh, a 57.5% increase year - on - year [47]. - **Consumer electronics**: In the second quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 69 million, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year. The production of electronic computer complete machines in the second quarter was 93.7 million, an 8.2% increase year - on - year [51]. - **Overseas energy storage demand**: From January to July 2025, the new installed capacity of new - type energy storage was 25.85GW/67.75GWh, a 48.8% increase in capacity year - on - year. Overseas, the energy storage growth rate was remarkable [56]. Other Indicators - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 460, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week at 2,250 yuan/ton [59]. - **Term structure**: This week, the lithium carbonate contract term structure was in a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - continuous and near - month contracts turned positive, with a spread of 200, an increase of 360 from last week [62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yongxing Materials (002756) clarified on August 23 that the pricing of its lithium mica concentrate is determined according to relevant regulations, and there is no intention to deliberately lower the prices [1] Group 2 - The company responded to inquiries on an interactive platform regarding the pricing of lithium mica concentrate [1] - The statement emphasizes compliance with regulations in setting prices for its products [1] - The company aims to maintain transparency and address any concerns regarding its pricing strategy [1]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,600 tons week-on-week, with a slight increase in the production of spodumene and mica. In July, Chile exported 13,600 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons to 142,400 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has stopped production, creating a short - term supply - demand gap [6]. - Demand side: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the terminal market were 987,000 units, a 12.0% increase year-on-year and an 11.2% decrease month-on-month [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine will create a supply - demand gap of thousands of tons, and it is expected that the lithium price will be strong. If the mine resumes production quickly, the lithium price may fall. If the scope of mine shutdowns expands, the lithium price center will further increase [6]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In June, the import volume was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month-on-month. In May, imports from Australia decreased by 31% month-on-month, from South Africa increased by 87% month-on-month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 3% month-on-month [10]. - **Lithium concentrate price**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [13]. - **Domestic lithium carbonate production**: In July, China's monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a 4% increase month-on-month and a 26% increase year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling increased by 14% and 10% respectively month-on-month, while that from lepidolite and salt lakes decreased by 8% and 2% respectively [16]. - **Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China**: From January to June, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a 11.3% increase year-on-year. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, also with a slight week-on-week increase [23]. Demand Side - **Positive electrode factory capacity utilization**: From January to June, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes was 1.48 million tons, a 47.8% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of ternary positive electrodes was 278,000 tons, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. In May, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.8%, and that of ternary materials was 49.5% [30]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to May this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million units, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million units, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and US sales were 517,000 units, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [34]. - **China's new energy vehicle market**: From January to June, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 6.934 million units, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. From July 1st to July 20th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% decrease month-on-month [37]. - **Power battery production**: In June, China's total production of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase month-on-month and a 51.4% increase year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase year-on-year [42]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [47]. - **New energy storage installation**: From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% increase in power and a 112.94% increase in capacity year-on-year. In June, the installed capacity was 2.33 GW/5.63 GWh, a significant decrease year-on-year and month-on-month [50]. - **August downstream production scheduling**: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side [56]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt factory cost**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene is 79,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,201 yuan/ton week-on-week. The theoretical production profit is - 11,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 201 yuan/ton week-on-week [53]. - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 5,060, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The basis of the contract turned negative [59]. - **Contract spread**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, with the spread increasing by 920 compared to last week [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]

Group 1 - The company has set production targets for iron ore and lithium mica concentrate for 2025, with specific measures in place to ensure these targets are met [1] - For iron ore, the company has developed a production plan at the beginning of the year and is implementing timely maintenance, equipment upgrades, and increased automation to secure production goals [1] - The lithium mines are currently under construction, with the Sichuan Jiada lithium mine expected to achieve sales of by-product raw ore this year [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 80,520 yuan/ton, hitting the daily limit compared with the previous trading day. The basis weakened to - 9,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price discount to the futures further widened [2] - The position of the main contract increased from 362,054 lots on July 18 to 491,088 lots on July 25, an increase of 35.6%. The market divergence intensified, with both short - hedging and long - speculation forces entering the market. The trading volume decreased from 1.77 million lots to 1.2 million lots week - on - week, and the trading activity declined marginally [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, but the compliance issue of lithium mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi triggered expectations of supply tightening. If the mining right review is not completed on time, production capacity may be limited. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.5 percentage points to 62.2%. Coupled with the maintenance and shutdown of some production lines of enterprises such as Jiangte Motor and Zangge Mining, short - term supply - side disturbances were strengthened [3] - **Demand side**: The prices of cathode materials continued the slow upward trend. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 240 yuan to 33,495 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.47% to 53,250 yuan/ton. The retail of new energy vehicles decreased by 12% month - on - month in July, and the terminal demand showed seasonal weakness. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate battery cells were basically flat, and downstream replenishment was still mainly based on rigid demand, lacking explosive drivers [3] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate has increased for four consecutive weeks to 143,170 physical tons, and the warehouse receipt pressure has further accumulated, with a month - on - month increase of 0.39% [3] c. Market Summary - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate may continue to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited. Supply - side disturbances and anti - involution policy sentiment have led to the recent rebound, but high inventory and weak terminal demand suppress the price space. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual impact of the Jiangxi mining right review progress on supply and the downstream acceptance of high prices. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, it may show a wide - range volatile pattern. If the compliance progress of Jiangxi mining enterprises is faster than expected or the retail of new energy vehicles weakens rapidly, the price may face a callback pressure [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From July 25 to July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate decreased from 80,520 yuan/ton to 73,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.19%. The basis increased from - 9,920 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 98.29%. The position of the main contract decreased from 491,088 lots to 378,472 lots, a decrease of 22.93%. The trading volume decreased from 1,203,424 lots to 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 16.46%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,600 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.33%. The market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 745 yuan/ton, and the market price of lepidolite concentrate increased from 850 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased from 53,000 yuan/ton to 53,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased from 116,595 yuan/ton to 116,995 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 33,255 yuan/ton to 33,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72% [6] - From July 18 to July 25, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased from 62.70% to 62.20%, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased from 142,620 physical tons to 143,170 physical tons, an increase of 0.39%. The prices of various types of battery cells remained basically unchanged [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 28, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,737 yuan/ton, a increase of 991 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,500 - 75,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,900 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 - 72,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,700 yuan/ton, a increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. At the beginning of this week, the lithium carbonate futures market dropped sharply, and the main contract hit the daily limit. This price fluctuation was mainly affected by two factors: on the one hand, it was driven by the linkage effect of the general decline in the prices of other commodities; on the other hand, the news of a mine in Jiangxi continued to disturb the market sentiment. After the futures price dropped significantly, the downstream procurement demand was significantly released, the market inquiry activity increased significantly, and the increase in trading volume pushed the spot price center to move up steadily [7] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 23, from July 1 - 20, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 537,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 54.9%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 6.006 million units, a year - on - year increase of 32%. From July 1 - 20, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 514,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% compared with the same period in July last year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles of Chinese passenger car manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since this year was 6.962 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36% [8] c. Industry News - On July 24, large - scale orders were finalized, large - scale funds were quickly deployed, investment and financing and IPOs were booming, and concept stocks set off a daily limit wave. In 2025, the trillion - level humanoid robot market exploded, and various capitals poured into the humanoid robot track [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise this week. On the supply side, the resources of cobalt intermediates were relatively concentrated, and mining enterprises still suspended quotations. After the customs data were released on the weekend, the import volume of cobalt intermediates in China in June dropped significantly, further strengthening the market's expectation of raw material shortage. Traders continued to raise their quotations and reported that there were a small number of transactions of mainstream brands at around 12.5 - 12.6 US dollars per pound. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories reported that the current cost inversion was too serious. If they could not purchase low - cost cobalt intermediates, they would choose to purchase other cobalt raw materials for substitution or choose to reduce production or even stop production. Overall, affected by the extension policy of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China's cobalt intermediates will still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has upward momentum, but it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of downstream demand by the increase in raw material prices [10] - On July 24, according to the SMM weekly review of the lithium - ion battery graphite market, the integration of anode enterprises was accelerating, and the price of the graphitization market was in a stalemate [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Affected by rumors from the supply side of Jiangxi mines, the price of lithium carbonate has rapidly soared. At the current price level, the acceptance of the spot market by downstream buyers is low, resulting in a small actual trading volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong with frequent speculations, and the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider hedging at high prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and daily increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: Li2508 at 76,500 yuan/ton with a 5.84% increase; Li2509 at 76,680 yuan/ton with a 7.21% increase; Li2510 at 75,460 yuan/ton with a 6.1% increase; Li2511 at 75,000 yuan/ton with a 6.17% increase; Li2512 at 74,680 yuan/ton with a 6.35% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 764 yuan, with a daily increase of 14 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1080 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1655 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5845 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6800 yuan, with a daily increase of 475 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,945 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7200 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1040 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons, a decrease of 2654 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons, an increase of 1544 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons, an increase of 1660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,690 yuan, and the profit is 910 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 74,022 yuan, and the profit is - 6048 yuan [3] Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The price increase is mainly due to supply - side disturbances, which boost market sentiment but have limited impact on the fundamentals. In the short term, strong market sentiment and frequent rumors support futures prices, but the pricing weight of the spot market may increase, and industry players can consider hedging at high prices. Also, the basis between the current spot and the 08 contract has been repaired, which will stimulate the production of warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 70,450 yuan with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 68,800 yuan with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2508 has a closing price of 69,320 yuan with a decline of 3.59%; lithium carbonate 2509 has a closing price of 69,380 yuan with a decline of 4.07%; lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 68,800 yuan with a decline of 3.91%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 68,620 yuan with a decline of 3.7%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 68,780 yuan with a decline of 3.48% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 750 yuan with a daily increase of 8 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,040 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,605 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 5,400 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 6,325 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,665 yuan with a daily increase of 325 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,150 yuan with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,845 yuan with a daily increase of 350 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,675 yuan with a daily increase of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,650 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,070 yuan with a change of 4,850 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan with a change of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan with a change of - 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons with a change of 1,827 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons with a change of - 559 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons with a change of 506 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons with a change of 1,880 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,754 tons with a change of 665 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 67,813 yuan, and the profit is 1,688 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 72,868 yuan, and the profit is - 4,992 yuan [3] Company News - Yichun Yinli, a subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, is expected to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]