热点降温后回归基本面，碳酸锂短期或需消化溢价 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年03月02日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 172020元/吨，较前一交易日下跌4020元，跌幅2.28%；基差走强至-1220 元/吨，较前值提升4020元，贴水收窄反映现货支撑增强。 持仓与成交 ：主力合约持仓量收缩至378336手，减少3216手，降幅 0.84%；成交量收缩至227061手，减少54919手，降幅19.48%，市场活跃度 减弱，观望情绪上升。 未来一到两周，碳酸锂期货价格预计维持低位震荡格局。原因在于：供给 端稳定，产能利用率持平和原料成本无变化限制下行空间；库存持续去化 支撑价格底部，但需求端新能源车销量增长不均衡且宏观风险（如中东冲 突引发的油价波动和不确定性）抑制下游采购意愿，导致市场成交收缩和 持仓谨慎。总结来看，价格可能企稳于当前区间，波动性收窄，投资者需 关注地缘事件对供应链韧性的潜在影响。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：截至2月27日，碳酸锂产能利用率维持稳定在85.72%，锂辉石精 矿和锂云母精矿价格分别持稳于18010元 ...

ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 陈宇森 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 2026/03/02 贵金属与新能源研究中心 数据来源:SMM,公开新闻整理 锂化合物 平均价 2000000 涨跌 SMM电池级碳酸锂 172000 -1000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 168500 -1000 3000 150000 收盘价 涨跌幅 期货合约 碳酸锂2603 171900 -2. 23% 100000 碳酸锂2604 175700 -1.69% 碳酸锂2605 -0.61% 176040 1000 50000 碳酸锂2606 175920 -1% 碳酸锂2607 176600 -0. 62% 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 2372 -15 4-6 297 (Li20:5.5%-6%) 利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 168303 N 利 # 江 外购锂辉石精矿利润 1457 164301 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 1790 行业 中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，2026年1月份新能源汽车市场平 ...

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main contract of carbonate lithium rose from RMB 152,640/ton on February 13, 2026 to RMB 164,120/ton on February 24, 2026, a 7.52% increase, indicating a slight price increase The basis weakened from -RMB 8,840/ton to -RMB 20,320/ton (the negative value expanded), showing that the futures price rose faster than the spot price [1][30] - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased from 342,226 lots to 365,180 lots on February 24, 2026, a 6.71% growth, indicating an expansion of market participation The trading volume decreased from 300,191 lots to 214,364 lots, a 28.59% contraction, suggesting reduced trading activities, possibly due to post - holiday or market wait - and - see sentiment [1][30] Group 2: Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium decreased from 87.14% on February 6, 2026 to 85.72% on February 13, 2026, a 1.63% decline, indicating a slight supply contraction Overseas lithium ore quotes recovered, but spot circulation was stagnant Salt factories mainly fulfilled long - term contracts, and the operating rate might be affected by maintenance (such as the concentrated maintenance period in February) The price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 6.33%, while the price of lithium spodumene concentrate slightly decreased by 0.22%, with the overall raw material cost remaining stable [2][31] - **Demand Side**: New energy vehicle sales increased (data on February 11 showed year - on - year and month - on - month growth), but downstream procurement was weak as most enterprises had completed pre - holiday stocking Positive electrode materials such as power ternary materials rose by 1.81% and lithium iron phosphate rose by 3.85%, indicating demand support Cell prices remained stable After the holiday, with downstream resumption approaching, demand is expected to be released [2][31] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The carbonate lithium inventory decreased from 105,463 physical tons on February 6, 2026 to 102,932 physical tons on February 13, 2026, a 2.4% reduction, showing inventory depletion Although warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, the inventory decline might support prices [2][31] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - The carbonate lithium futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the next one to two weeks, due to inventory depletion, improved demand expectations, and supply contraction [33][43]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the new energy vehicle market operated smoothly, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 0.945 million vehicles respectively, and exports of 0.302 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 100%. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, both supply and demand decreased, and it is expected that both supply and demand will increase in March. In the short term, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull, fluctuating in the range of 130,000 - 150,000. It is recommended to control risks before the festival due to the battery rush - export demand at the end of the quarter [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 143,750 yuan, up 1,250 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 140,250 yuan, up 1,250 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,125 yuan, up 60 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,640 yuan, up 65 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 13,340 yuan, up 90 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 14,300 yuan, up 100 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 52,015 yuan, up 305 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 200,850 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 176,400 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 177,900 yuan, up 500 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 8,890 yuan, down 1,970 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1,740 yuan, down 160 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 2,140 yuan, down 720 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 16,920 tons, down 1,436 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 44,492 tons, up 835 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,520 tons, down 1,930 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 38,759 tons, up 1,477 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 145,499 yuan, and the profit is - 3,706 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 142,147 yuan, and the profit is - 3,742 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations. Although the demand side is supported by the sales volume of new energy vehicles, cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short-term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. Overall, the market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short-term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 12, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 149,420 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 840 yuan or 0.56% from 150,260 yuan/ton on February 11. The basis strengthened to -10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or a 7.33% rise [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased from 356,531 lots on February 11 to 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or a 0.72% decline. The trading volume decreased from 351,877 lots to 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or a 13.38% decline [1]. 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The overall supply of lithium ore is stable, with the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining unchanged. However, logistics suspension restricts raw material transportation, and although the salt plant's operating rate remains high, short-term incremental supply is limited. Yahua Group's lithium ore self - sufficiency rate has increased, but the newly put - into - production projects have not yet formed large - scale supply, so the overall supply side is tight [2]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is differentiated. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth of new energy vehicle sales has driven up the prices of cathode materials. However, the release of newly built battery production capacity is limited, the cell prices are stable, and downstream procurement is cautious, with moderate demand momentum [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons on January 30 to 105,463 physical tons on February 6, a decrease of 2,019 tons or a 1.88% decline, continuing the de - stocking trend. The inventory decline reflects accelerated downstream digestion, and combined with the Spring Festival factor, the enterprise's production - based - on - sales strategy suppresses inventory accumulation [2]. 1.3 Price Trend Judgment Over the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but cautious downstream procurement and suspended logistics limit trading activity. The supply side has stable lithium ore but a short - term transportation bottleneck leads to a tight supply pattern, and continuous inventory depletion provides bottom support. The overall market sentiment is neutral, with holiday factors dominating short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and the release of restocking demand after the holiday [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 12, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 149,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 840 yuan or 0.56% from February 11. The basis was - 10,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 840 yuan or 7.33%. The main contract position was 353,975 lots, a decrease of 2,556 lots or 0.72%. The main contract trading volume was 304,798 lots, a decrease of 47,079 lots or 13.38%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 138,800 yuan/ton. The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 14,155 yuan/ton and 7,900 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton. The price of power ternary materials increased from 174,600 yuan/ton to 176,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan or 0.80%. The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased from 50,620 yuan/ton to 51,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,090 yuan or 2.15% [5]. - From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 87.14%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 107,482 physical tons to 105,463 physical tons, a decrease of 2,019 tons or 1.88%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased from 6.15 yuan/piece to 6.25 yuan/piece, an increase of 0.10 yuan or 1.63%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - packed ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt - acid lithium cells remained unchanged [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotations On February 12, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 142,168 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3,685 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 142,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4,500 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate futures main contract maintained range - bound fluctuations on the day, with an intraday increase of 3.66% and the disk price ranging from 146,000 yuan/ton to 152,400 yuan/ton. The position decreased by about 2,600 lots compared with the previous trading day. With the gradual suspension of logistics, downstream material factories have basically completed their February stockpiling, and most enterprises have turned to a wait - and - see attitude, with only a few engaging in late - point - price closing and sporadic purchases. Overall, market inquiries and transactions are relatively light [6]. 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on February 11, from February 1 to 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 119,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 41%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 715,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 14%. From February 1 to 8, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1% [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 22, the cobalt intermediate product market maintained a relatively strong pattern. On the supply side, some overseas mining enterprises were bullish on the future market and conducted centralized procurement in the domestic market at a price of about 25.5 US dollars/pound, exacerbating the shortage of spot goods. Driven by this, the high - end domestic market quotations have increased to 26 US dollars/pound. On the demand side, the continuous rise in raw material prices has further narrowed the profit margin of smelters, and enterprises have mostly returned to the rigid - demand procurement model. In terms of policy, it is reported that the export process of non - pilot enterprises is progressing steadily, and it is expected that most of the quotas in January 2026 can be successfully exported. However, considering the overall tight market liquidity and the about three - month transportation cycle from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to China, the structurally tight supply pattern of cobalt intermediate products is difficult to fundamentally reverse before the large - scale arrival of raw materials in April, and prices still have upward driving force [8][9]. - On January 16, Yahua Group stated on the investor interaction platform that its lithium ore project in Zimbabwe has shipped lithium ore back to China in batches and used it for relevant production, and its lithium ore self - sufficiency rate is expected to increase. The company also said that it is still actively promoting the inspection of high - quality lithium resources at home and abroad and will follow the principles of "multi - dimensional demonstration, full - process research, and prudent decision - making" to promote relevant work. As of November 2025, Yahua Group had formed a diversified channel layout of self - controlled mines and purchased mines, establishing a relatively complete lithium resource guarantee system [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [10][12][14][16][18][19][22][23].

Corporate Governance and Structure - The company has completed a shareholding structure adjustment, with the Longyan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission transferring 4.37% of shares to Zijin Nanto, resulting in the Investment Opening Group indirectly controlling 49.55% of shares. The supervisory board has been abolished, and 22 systems have been revised to enhance management efficiency and transparency. These reforms are set to take effect in January 2026, and their long-term impact will need continuous observation [2]. Business Development - The company has established a pilot line to research the technology for extracting lithium from the tailings of the ore processing plant, with ongoing optimization of low-grade lithium mica concentrate production. This business is a market focus, and a technological breakthrough could drive business diversification [3]. Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2025 report indicates an operating revenue of 206 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 79.97 million yuan, down 16.94% year-on-year. Future performance will depend on the progress of the lithium extraction project and the realization of financial reports, with investors needing to pay attention to the 2026 quarterly financial reports to validate growth logic [4]. Capital Flow - On February 12, 2026, the company's stock price was reported at 37.61 yuan per share, with a net inflow of 2.7271 million yuan from main funds and a turnover rate of 0.44%. The capital flow reflects short-term market sentiment but should be assessed in conjunction with the fundamentals [5].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate futures is driven by a combination of regulatory policies, macroeconomic sentiment, and seasonal trading behaviors, rather than a fundamental shift in the market [4][5]. Market Analysis - The primary driver of the recent downturn is regulatory intervention aimed at cooling speculative trading, including increased fees and margin requirements, which has led to a rapid exit of speculative funds [4]. - Macroeconomic sentiment has also played a role, with declines in prices of major assets like precious metals and crude oil contributing to a general decrease in market risk appetite, further pressuring lithium carbonate prices [4]. - Seasonal factors are evident as investors tend to reduce positions and secure funds ahead of the Chinese New Year, amplifying selling pressure in the market [4]. - Recent data from Chile indicating a significant increase in lithium salt exports has raised concerns about short-term supply pressures, although this is viewed as a temporary spike rather than a long-term trend [4]. Supply and Demand Overview - Current supply dynamics show a slight contraction due to maintenance and seasonal factors, while demand remains resilient supported by battery exports and energy storage needs [5]. - As of January 2026, lithium carbonate production was reported at 97,900 tons, with battery-grade accounting for 71,440 tons, reflecting a minor month-on-month decline [8]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to decrease, with total inventory at 107,482 tons as of January 29, 2026, indicating ongoing demand despite price fluctuations [10]. Price Trends - On February 5, 2026, lithium carbonate futures closed at 132,780 yuan/ton, marking a 10.68% drop, with spot prices for high-quality lithium carbonate ranging from 146,200 to 149,500 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The market is currently experiencing a technical adjustment influenced by regulatory measures and seasonal trading patterns, with key support levels needing to be monitored for future price stability [5][13]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent price corrections are more reflective of market sentiment and seasonal factors rather than a fundamental weakening of supply-demand dynamics [13]. - The expectation of supply tightening due to maintenance and seasonal shutdowns, alongside resilient demand from the battery sector, suggests that the underlying market fundamentals remain intact [13][15].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main lithium carbonate contract dropped from 181,520 yuan/ton on January 23, 2026, to 165,680 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, a decline of 8.73%, showing a slight pullback. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 216.33%, indicating a significant strengthening of the basis [39]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest decreased from 438,728 lots to 416,719 lots, a reduction of 5.02%, showing a contraction in open interest. The trading volume increased from 342,805 lots to 575,675 lots, a growth of 67.93%, indicating a significant expansion of trading volume [39]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to information, the lithium ore project of Yahua Group (January 16) has improved self - sufficiency; Sigma Lithium (January 23) sold lithium ore and denied operational issues. The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 17,985 yuan/ton to 19,470 yuan/ton (8.26%), and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton (2.35%), indicating an increase in raw material costs. The production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 87.14% [40]. - **Demand Side**: The data from the Passenger Car Association (January 21) showed a year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales, indicating weak demand. However, the prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials (from 186,300 yuan/ton to 190,300 yuan/ton, up 2.15%) and power lithium iron phosphate (from 58,630 yuan/ton to 61,175 yuan/ton, up 4.34%) increased, and the prices of battery cells generally rose, indicating demand support. Information mentioned that the cost of energy - storage battery cells increased, with price transmission lagging, and downstream resistance to high prices. In new energy vehicle exports, PHEV growth was faster than BEV, reflecting a change in demand structure [40]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 109,679 physical tons to 108,896 physical tons (a change of - 783 tons, - 0.71%), showing a slight decline in inventory. Warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but the inventory reduction implied supply tightness or increased demand [40]. Price Trend Judgment Based on the rising supply cost, demand - side support, and decreasing inventory, it is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a possibility of a slight rebound, but attention should be paid to demand changes and macro factors [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the macro - level, geopolitical turmoil keeps the enthusiasm in the non - ferrous sector high, with strong varieties hitting new highs [5]. - At the industrial level, although the subsidy for new energy vehicles is gradually phased out, 62.5 billion in subsidies are advanced, and car companies subsidize 2025 pre - sale orders. Coupled with the reduction in export tax rebates stimulating "rush - to - export", the vehicle sales data from January to February is smoothed. Energy storage orders are scheduled until April - May 2026, but due to battery capacity bottlenecks, they cannot expand rapidly. It is expected that the combined demand for power and energy storage will decline slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders have increased, and institutions have revised up the production plan for January. The domestic demand side in January is not in a typical off - season, with a month - on - month decline of less than 5%. On the supply side, it is reported that a mine in Yichun has stopped production for license renewal, and the market is worried that other mines in Yichun will also be affected. From January to February, smelters conduct maintenance to prepare for peak - season demand. Even if lithium ore imports increase, the production of lithium carbonate may not increase rapidly, and the supply flexibility is limited. The inventory expectation from January to February has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, which further stimulates downstream purchasing intentions [5]. - At the futures level, the market has raised the target price for lithium prices, and the optimistic sentiment remains high. The new high in prices indicates that the upward trend will continue. However, regulatory risks may still cause significant short - term corrections, and market sentiment changes should be closely monitored [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand Analysis 3.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Off - Season but Better than Expected - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that in 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively, and the penetration rate is 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the previous year. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from January 1 - 18, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 312,000, a year - on - year decrease of 16% and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year are 312,000, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The production of power cells follows the sales trend of new energy vehicles. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 1245.5 GWh. In January, the "rush - to - export" driven by the reduction in export tax rebates may smooth the decline in power battery production caused by poor vehicle sales [10]. 3.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Divergent Electrification Progress in Europe and the United States - CleanTechnica statistics show that from January - November 2025, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million, compared with a 26.4% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In Europe, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, compared with a 3.7% year - on - year decrease in the same period last year. In the United States, from January - November 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million, compared with an 11% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. The United States cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small sales peak in advance. Most European countries still offer subsidies for new energy vehicles and have carbon emission requirements, which stimulate sales growth this year. However, they also decide to weaken the 2035 ban on fuel - powered vehicles according to their own situations and instead reduce carbon emissions by 90%. The CAAM statistics show that from January - December 2025, the cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from China were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103%, compared with an 11% year - on - year increase in the same period last year [15]. 3.1.3 Energy Storage Market - Hot Orders but Capacity Bottlenecks Limit Production Growth - In December, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on power long - term contract signing and performance in 2026, further promoting electricity price marketization. SMM statistics show that in 2025, the cumulative production of energy storage cells in China was 529.4 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%, compared with an 88% increase in the same period last year. The inventory of energy storage cells is at a three - year low, the delivery cycle is extended, and the production of energy storage cells in January increased by 1% month - on - month [16][19]. 3.1.4 "Rush - to - export" Boosts Market Sentiment but with Limited Room - SMM data shows that in December, battery production increased by 3.5% month - on - month, with ternary battery production decreasing by 2.9% and lithium iron phosphate battery production decreasing by 5.6%. Cell production: power cells decreased by 2.8% and energy storage cells increased by 8.6%. Cathode material production: ternary cathode materials decreased by 2.5% and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2%. Electrolyte production increased by 4.0%. In January, battery production is expected to decrease by 5.9% month - on - month, with ternary batteries decreasing by 6.4% and lithium iron phosphate batteries decreasing by 5.6%. Cell production: power cells are expected to decrease by 6.1% and energy storage cells to remain flat. Cathode material production: ternary cathode materials are expected to decrease by 4.4% and lithium iron phosphate by 10%. Electrolyte production is expected to decrease by 6.1%. Affected by the weakening power demand, the off - season continues in January but may be revised up due to the "rush - to - export". It is expected that the month - on - month decline will continue in February [28]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Stable but Slightly Declining Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, due to maintenance of some smelters, production decreased by 1.2% month - on - month, and more maintenance is expected in February. SMM statistics show that from January - December, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 970,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%, compared with a 47% increase in the same period last year. The production plan for January is 98,000 tons. Leading lithium mines are holding firm on prices, and lithium ore prices follow lithium salt prices, exceeding production costs. This week, the production of all raw materials has declined, indicating the start of smelter maintenance [33]. 3.2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - The report presents the production trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling, with specific data and trends in different months from 2022 - 2025 [35]. 3.2.3 Marginal Decline in Lithium Carbonate Supply in January - In 2025, from January - December, China's lithium carbonate imports were 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In December, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 14,000 tons, and 8071 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month decline. Due to reduced shipments from Australia and Chile in December, it is expected that the imports of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate in China in January will decline month - on - month [41]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Forecast (in 10,000 tons of LCE) - The report shows the historical supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate and its relationship with average prices [43]. 3.3.2 Continuous Inventory Reduction in the Lithium Carbonate Off - Season - SMM statistics show that the social inventory decreased by 783 tons this week, and inventory has been continuously reduced for two weeks in January. Among them, smelters and downstream enterprises increased their inventory, while traders reduced their inventory [44]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral trading**: Adopt a low - buying strategy [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [5].