Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate futures price may be supported in the short - term due to strong demand for energy storage and tight supply caused by the US - Iran war affecting Australian mine diesel progress, despite the upper pressure from funds' risk - aversion due to the ongoing US - Iran situation. Also, the social inventory is in continuous destocking, but the destocking amplitude is slowing down [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 164,500 yuan, with a change of 6,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 161,000 yuan, with a change of 6,000 yuan [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2604 closed at 170,060 yuan with a 4.34% increase; 2605 closed at 171,620 yuan with a 4.53% increase; 2606 closed at 171,140 yuan with a 4.15% increase; 2607 closed at 171,700 yuan with a 4.38% increase; 2608 closed at 172,140 yuan with a 3.95% increase [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) average price is 2,313 yuan, with a change of 83 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 3,575 yuan with a change of 100 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,225 yuan with a change of 175 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 13,750 yuan with a change of 475 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 15,000 yuan with a change of 500 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 57,300 yuan, with a change of 1,825 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) is 213,850 yuan, with a change of 2,700 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) is 187,250 yuan, with a change of 3,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) is 189,300 yuan, with a change of 3,000 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan, with a change of - 500 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 7,120 yuan, with a change of 3,320 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1,560 yuan, with a change of - 600 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1,080 yuan, with a change of - 120 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,489 tons, with a change of 616,724 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 17,332 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 46,657 tons, with a change of 552 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,500 tons, with a change of - 660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 31,064 tons, with a change of 953 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 164,478 yuan, and the profit is - 2,142 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 155,467 yuan, and the profit is 3,273 yuan [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to announce a policy during the Delhi budget meeting next week to provide cash subsidies to individuals who scrap locally registered BS - IV and earlier standard fuel vehicles and purchase electric vehicles to accelerate electrification and reduce the number of old high - emission vehicles [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the analysis of the lithium carbonate market. It shows that on March 27, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures market had significant price and trading volume changes. The supply - side has a tight supply expectation due to factors like the suspension of Zimbabwean mine shipments, while the demand - side has potential improvement from new vehicle models but is restricted by cautious downstream procurement. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis 3.1.1 Main Contract and Basis On March 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose significantly to 168,440 yuan/ton, up 11,240 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 7.15%. The basis weakened to - 12,440 yuan/ton, widening by 8,240 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 196.19% [1][5]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.51% on March 27. The trading volume expanded significantly to 324,620 lots, an increase of 63,690 lots from the previous day, with an increase rate of 24.41% [1][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side On March 27, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 17,620 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.37%. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,400 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 73.46%, the same as the previous week. The suspension of Zimbabwean mine shipments led to an expectation of tight supply, while the expansion plan of the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile may increase medium - to - long - term supply, but there were no significant changes in short - term technology and operating rates, and salt factories had a strong sentiment of holding prices [2]. 3.2.2 Demand Side On March 27, 2026, the prices of downstream cathode materials rose slightly. The price of power ternary materials was reported at 184,250 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.27%, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate was reported at 55,475 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.66%. The battery cell price was generally stable. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased month - on - month, and the intensive release of new models may boost demand, but downstream material factories were cautious in procurement, only maintaining a small amount of rigid demand, and the progress of order negotiations was slow [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts Lithium carbonate inventory increased slightly. On March 27, 2026, it was 99,489 physical tons, an increase of 616 tons from 98,873 physical tons in the previous week, with an increase rate of 0.62%. The slight increase in inventory level reflected the intensification of supply - demand game, with the upstream's willingness to ship improving while the downstream's digestion was slow [2]. 3.3 Future Price Trend In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. The supply side is affected by the uncertainty of Zimbabwean mine shipments and the support of lithium ore prices, forming an expectation of tight supply. The demand side may have marginal improvement due to the release of new models, but the cautious downstream procurement and the year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales limit the upward space. In addition, macro factors such as the geopolitical risk in the Middle East disturb market sentiment, and the slight increase in inventory highlights the supply - demand stalemate. Therefore, the short - term price will lack a clear direction and seek balance in volatility [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is under pressure from macro hedging and the slowdown of inventory depletion, but is supported by demand. Due to the unclear macro situation, investors are advised to participate with caution [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 147,500 with a daily increase of 1,000; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 144,500 with a daily increase of 1,000 [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2604 closed at 152,440 with a 6.39% increase; 2605 closed at 152,940 with a 6.11% increase; 2606 closed at 151,960 with a 4.9% increase; 2607 closed at 152,300 with a 6.03% increase; 2608 closed at 152,200 with a 6.05% increase [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) average price is 2,072 with a daily increase of 44 [1] - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 3,065 with a daily increase of 45; (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 4,465 with a daily increase of 65 [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) average price is 11,900 with a daily increase of 150; (Li20: 7% - 8%) average price is 12,925 with a daily increase of 175 [2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 52,925 with a daily increase of 245 [2] - Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) average price is 208,750 with a daily increase of 250; 523 (single - crystal/power type) average price is 181,250 with a daily increase of 300; 613 (single - crystal/power type) average price is 183,450 with a daily increase of 300 [2] Price Spreads - Electric carbon - industrial carbon spread is 3,000 [2] - Electric carbon - main contract spread is - 5,440 with a change of - 2,900; near - month - first continuous spread is - 500 with a change of 680; near - month - second continuous spread is 480 with a change of 760 [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 98,873 with a decrease of 86; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 16,608 with an increase of 316; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 46,105 with an increase of 458; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 36,160 with a decrease of 860; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,078 with a decrease of 1,459 [2] Profit Estimation - Cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 148,987, and the profit is - 3,407; cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 137,928, and the profit is 4,505 [3] Industry News - The Delhi government in India plans to announce a new policy during the Delhi budget meeting next week, providing cash subsidies to individuals who scrap locally registered BS - IV and earlier standard fuel vehicles and purchase electric vehicles to accelerate electrification transformation and reduce the number of old high - emission vehicles [3] Market Situation - Macroscopically, the situation between the US and Iran persists, causing upward pressure due to capital hedging. Fundamentally, new energy vehicle data in February was lower than expected, but energy storage demand remains strong and can still increase. Social inventory is continuously being depleted, but the depletion rate is slowing down [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern in the next one to two weeks. The weak demand due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and soft downstream material prices suppresses the upward momentum, while supply - side disturbances and a slight decrease in inventory provide support. Macro factors may increase volatility [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 - **主力合约与基差**: On March 23, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 149,040 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan/ton (3.6%) from March 20. The basis weakened to - 4,040 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10,180 yuan/ton from March 20 [1][42]. - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract shrank to 269,477 lots, a decrease of 7,101 lots (2.57%) from March 20. The trading volume also shrank to 228,178 lots, a decrease of 30,098 lots (11.65%) [1][42]. 产业链供需及库存变化分析 - **供给端**: The price of spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.31% on March 23 compared to March 20, and the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate was stable at 73.46%. The Zimbabwe event caused concerns about supply disruptions, while the approval of the Australian Atlantic Lithium project may increase medium - to - long - term supply [2][44]. - **需求端**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. The power - type ternary material and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.71% and 1.14% respectively from March 20. From March 1 - 15, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 28% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. However, the purchasing sentiment of downstream material factories improved, and actual transactions were relatively active, supported by short - term inventory demand [2][44]. - **库存与仓单**: Lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased to 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons (0.09%) from March 13 [2][45]. 价格走势判断 - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. Weak demand from the decline in new energy vehicle sales and soft downstream material prices suppresses upward momentum, but supply - side disturbances and a slight decrease in inventory provide support. Macro factors may increase volatility [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On March 23, 2026, compared with March 20, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 3.6%, the basis decreased by 165.8%, the position of the main contract decreased by 2.57%, and the trading volume decreased by 11.65%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 3.33%, the price of spodumene concentrate decreased by 2.31%, the price of lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.92%, the price of power - type ternary material decreased by 0.71%, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.14% [5]. - From March 20 to March 13, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73.46%, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.09%, and most of the cell prices remained unchanged or changed slightly [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 现货市场报价 - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The position decreased by about 6,200 lots. In the spot market, the purchasing rhythm of downstream material factories slowed down, and the willingness of upstream lithium salt factories to sell single orders weakened. The overall trading activity decreased. Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and crude oil price fluctuations, the market risk preference declined, and the industrial metal sector was under pressure. The unresolved lithium ore export ban in Zimbabwe provided bottom support for prices. In the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern [6]. 下游消费情况 - According to the Passenger Car Association data, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 285,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 28% and a month - on - month increase of 36%. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 1.345 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 26%. The wholesale sales were 325,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 19% and a month - on - month increase of 47%. The cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of this year were 1.914 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [7]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Chart - The content mainly lists various data charts related to the lithium carbonate industry chain, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [8][10][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, as the supply is supported by the export ban in Zimbabwe and upstream reluctance to sell, but the demand is weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the inventory reduction provides limited support while macro - geopolitical risks suppress market sentiment [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 20, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly to 143,860 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase from the previous day, continuing the recent volatile trend. The basis weakened significantly to 6,140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 7,260 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 54.18% [1][53] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position volume shrank by 2.18% to 276,578 lots, a decrease of 6,167 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank by 10.5% to 258,276 lots, a decrease of 30,295 lots from the previous day, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [1][54] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: On March 20, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,235 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous day, while the price of lepidolite concentrate dropped significantly by 6.01% to 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 73.46%. The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, and the import volume of spodumene fluctuated from January to February, increasing the reluctance of upstream lithium salt plants to sell and reducing the willingness to sell single orders, constraining the supply [2][55] - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On March 20, 2026, the price of power ternary materials dropped by 0.55% to 182,250 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate dropped by 1.57% to 53,290 yuan/ton. The cell prices were basically stable, with only the square lithium iron phosphate cell rising slightly by 1.08%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first half of March, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. The demand was weak, and the procurement rhythm of downstream material plants slowed down, with only a few low - inventory enterprises maintaining rigid demand replenishment [2][55] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.09% to 98,873 physical tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory reduction trend. The overall inventory pressure in the market was relieved, and the upstream reluctance to sell and the downstream inventory preparation until early April led to a shortage of circulating goods [2][56] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The supply side is supported by the Zimbabwe export ban and upstream reluctance to sell, but the cost drive is weakened by the decline in lepidolite price and import fluctuations. The demand side remains weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the macro - geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation) suppress market sentiment. The slight inventory reduction provides limited support, but there is a lack of strong unilateral drive. Overall, the price will fluctuate within the current range, with the upside limited by insufficient demand and the downside buffered by supply constraints [3][57] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of lithium - related products on March 20, 2026, are provided, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, position, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, power lithium iron phosphate, etc., along with their price changes and rates compared with the previous day or previous week [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract once reached 148,000 yuan/ton after the opening, and the highest in the noon reached over 150,000 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure and closed at around 144,000 yuan/ton. As of the close, the position volume decreased by about 6,200 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, after the downstream material plants' concentrated replenishment the previous day, the procurement rhythm slowed down significantly today. Some enterprises' raw material inventories have been prepared until early April, and only a few low - inventory enterprises maintained rigid demand and purchased at low prices. Upstream lithium salt plants were less willing to sell single orders due to the continuous decline in prices, and some manufacturers still insisted on quotes above 160,000 yuan/ton. The overall trading activity in the market decreased compared with the previous trading day. At the macro level, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased and the crude oil price fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk preference and overall pressure on the industrial metal sector. On the supply side, the export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, providing bottom - support for the price. In general, in the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern under the game between bearish macro sentiment and supply - side constraints [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on March 18, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 36% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1 - 15, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers were 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 47% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [8][10][12][14][16][18][20][21]

Group 1: Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - The carbonated lithium futures main contract closed at 150,120 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a slight decrease of 3.35% from 155,320 yuan/ton on March 17, 2026 [1][5][34][55]. - The basis was 5,880 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a significant strengthening of 119.4% from 2,680 yuan/ton on the previous day [1][5][34][55]. - The main contract's open interest was 307,422 lots on March 18, 2026, a contraction of 0.46% from the previous day. The trading volume was 205,889 lots, an expansion of 18.71% from the previous day [1][5][35][55]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Supply Side - The market price of spodumene concentrate was 16,705 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a decline of 5.19% from the previous day. The price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of carbonate lithium was 73.46% on March 13, 2026, the same as the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell and had a clear attitude of supporting prices, with a weak willingness to sell scattered orders, indicating a tight supply side [2][5][37][55]. Demand Side - The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 156,000 yuan/ton on March 18, 2026, a slight decline of 1.27% from the previous day. The prices of downstream cathode materials such as power - type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, while the cell prices remained stable. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, 2026, the retail and wholesale of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the cumulative retail decreased year - on - year. Downstream material producers adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices, which drove the restocking demand and increased the trading activity [2][5][38][55]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The carbonate lithium inventory was 98,959 physical tons on March 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous week, indicating a slight reduction in inventory, which reflected the support of the demand - side restocking behavior for destocking [2][5][42][56]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment - It is expected that the carbonate lithium futures price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply side is supported by the upstream's price - supporting behavior, and the decline in raw material costs may relieve production pressure but does not significantly increase supply elasticity. The new energy vehicle sales data on the demand side is divided. The downstream's low - price purchasing provides support, but the year - on - year decline in cumulative retail sales shows the uncertainty of demand recovery. The slight decrease in inventory indicates a relatively balanced supply - demand situation, and the market sentiment is cautious. In summary, the carbonate lithium market lacks a one - sided driving factor in the short term, and the oscillating trend may continue. Investors need to closely monitor the changes in raw material prices and the downstream purchasing rhythm [3][44][56].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 6, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 156,160 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the basis weakened to 640 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 31.91% from the previous day [1][34][35]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: On March 6, 2026, the open interest expanded to 333,903 lots, an increase of 1,529 lots or 0.46% from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank to 228,224 lots, a decrease of 72,281 lots or 24.05% from the previous day [1][36][37]. *** Industry Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 6, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,600 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased to 73.46%, down 12.26 percentage points from the previous week. Upstream lithium salt producers ended maintenance but were reluctant to sell and eager to hold up prices, with weak willingness to sell spot orders. Overseas mines held up prices, resulting in light overall trading [2][28][38]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials slightly declined, with ternary materials dropping to 182,050 yuan/ton and lithium iron phosphate dropping to 54,810 yuan/ton on March 6, 2026. Although the sales volume of new energy vehicles from February 1 - 8 increased year - on - year, the sales volume in the first quarter fell short of expectations, affecting the procurement rhythm of downstream battery cell manufacturers. Material manufacturers showed strong procurement willingness and increased production schedules, and were eager to replenish stocks when prices corrected, but overall, they were cautious and mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach, with light actual trading [2][31][39]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of lithium carbonate slightly decreased to 99,373 physical tons on March 6, 2026, a decrease of 720 tons or 0.72% from the previous week, indicating slow inventory depletion. Warehouse receipt data were not directly provided, but the inventory decrease might reflect a reduction in warehouse receipt pressure [2][31][40]. *** Price Trend Judgment It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side capacity utilization rate is gradually recovering despite the decline, and the reluctance of upstream producers to sell supports prices. On the demand side, although new energy vehicle sales are growing, they fall short of expectations, and downstream procurement is cautious with limited restocking demand. The inventory is slightly decreasing but the depletion speed is slow. The overall market shows a supply - demand game with a lack of a clear directional driver [3][31][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, lithium carbonate prices may fluctuate under hedging pressure due to the increasing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, which has led to a rise in capital hedging sentiment, and the need for capital to take profits after the previous large increase in lithium carbonate prices. However, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the continuous restocking by downstream industries supports the price. Overall, the fundamentals are supportive [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 155,250 yuan, down 750 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 151,750 yuan, down 750 yuan [1]. - For lithium carbonate futures contracts: - Carbonate 2603 closed at 154,020 yuan, down 0.73%. - Carbonate 2604 closed at 155,860 yuan, up 0.03%. - Carbonate 2605 closed at 156,160 yuan, up 0.42%. - Carbonate 2606 closed at 156,100 yuan, down 0.29%. - Carbonate 2607 closed at 156,420 yuan, up 0.67% [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) average price is 2,155 yuan, with no change [1]. - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 3,455 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 5,190 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 12,825 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 14,000 yuan [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 54,810 yuan, down 180 yuan. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 209,500 yuan, down 450 yuan. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 182,050 yuan, down 350 yuan. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 183,750 yuan, down 300 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. - The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 910 yuan, down 1,050 yuan. - The price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 300 yuan, with no change. - The price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 240 yuan, up 180 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 99,373 tons, down 720 tons. - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 17,476 tons, down 906 tons. - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,757 tons, up 3,736 tons. - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 38,140 tons, down 3,550 tons. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,330 tons, down 510 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 154,280 yuan, and the profit is - 1,102 yuan. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 154,659 yuan, and the profit is - 4,984 yuan [3]. Industry Situation - In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market operated steadily, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 1.5% respectively. - In January, new - energy vehicle exports maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 vehicles exported, a year - on - year increase of 100% [3].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 3, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped significantly to 150,860 yuan/ton, a 12.3% decline from March 2. The basis strengthened notably to 16,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 18,160 yuan from the previous day [1][63]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract shrank by 10.24% to 339,604 lots, while the trading volume expanded by 96.03% to 445,115 lots [1][64]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 3, the price of spodumene concentrate rose 5.91% to 19,075 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate stayed at 85.72%. Upstream lithium salt producers showed strong reluctance to sell, leading to a tight supply [2][65]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 2.34% and 4.72% respectively. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but the cumulative year-on-year sales decreased. Downstream material manufacturers' purchasing intention increased when prices fell, but overall, there was strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][65]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 100,093 physical tons, showing a decreasing trend. Although the warehouse receipt data was not updated, the inventory decline indicated a de - stocking trend [2][66]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The supply side is supported by lithium ore costs but limited by producers' reluctance to sell. The demand side is supported by the growth of new energy vehicle sales but restricted by cautious downstream purchasing. The continuous decline in inventory eases the oversupply pressure. The overall market sentiment is bearish, but the low price may attract bargain - hunting [3][67].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 2, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped slightly to 172,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,020 yuan or 2.28% from February 27, 2026; the basis strengthened to -1,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,020 yuan from the previous value, indicating a narrowing of the futures discount [1][44]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: During the same period, the open interest of the main contract shrank to 378,336 lots, a decrease of 3,216 lots or 0.84%; the trading volume shrank to 227,061 lots, a decrease of 54,919 lots or 19.48%, showing a decline in market activity [1][44]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 85.72%, and the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 18,010 yuan/ton and 10,150 yuan/ton respectively; upstream lithium salt producers maintained firm quotes and had a weak willingness to sell spot orders [2][45]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials were generally stable, with the price of power-type lithium iron phosphate rising slightly to 58,990 yuan/ton; according to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the short - term sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year but the cumulative sales decreased. The new battery production capacity was affected by macro uncertainties, and the escalation of the Middle East conflict might suppress consumer confidence [2][45]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline. The latest data showed that the inventory on February 27, 2026, was 100,093 physical tons, less than the previous period, providing support for prices; the warehouse receipt data was not updated, but the inventory trend indicated a de - stocking process [2][45]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The reasons are as follows: the supply side remains stable, and the continuous decline in inventory provides bottom support; on the demand side, although there are signs of growth in new energy vehicle sales, macro risks such as energy price fluctuations and uncertainties caused by the Middle East conflict may limit the recovery of demand. Meanwhile, the contraction of market trading and open interest shows a strong wait - and - see sentiment, limiting the upside potential of prices. In summary, the price may stabilize at the current level in the short term, but close attention should be paid to the further impact of geopolitical events on the industrial chain [3][46].