Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium battery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is progressing rapidly, with significant advancements in materials and applications. European demand for new energy vehicles continues to improve, supported by favorable subsidy policies and optimized vehicle supply [6][14] - Leading companies in the lithium battery sector are securing long-term contracts, indicating strong demand and growth potential [6][20] - The lithium battery materials market is experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium carbonate prices at 73,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [6][22] Industry Dynamics - Solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with new materials developed by research teams from Tsinghua University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences showing promising energy densities [6][17] - European new energy vehicle sales reached 311,200 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a penetration rate of 31.8% [6] - Domestic new energy vehicle sales in China were 1.395 million units in August, up 27% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 48.8% [6] - The U.S. saw new energy vehicle sales of 176,600 units in August, a 19% increase year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the lithium battery industry with low valuations amid strong demand, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [4] - Consider companies leading in low-altitude economy and robotics, solid-state battery materials, and consumer battery sectors [4] Price Trends - Lithium salt prices are fluctuating, with battery cell prices on the rise. The price of square ternary power cells is 0.396 CNY/Wh, reflecting a slight increase [6][22] - The price of lithium carbonate is currently 73,600 CNY/ton, showing a 0.07% increase from two weeks ago [22] Market Performance - The lithium battery sector has seen a 10.6% increase in the last two weeks, with significant stock price movements among key players like CATL (+5.7%) and Yiwei Lithium Energy (+17.8%) [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand, along with the continuous reduction of lithium carbonate social inventory, support the futures price. However, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the market will take advantage of the supply - side issue again in the context of demand improvement and the reported environmental problems in Qinghai salt lakes [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,600 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (2510, 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602) are 72,680 yuan/ton (-0.66%), 72,880 yuan/ton (-0.79%), 72,900 yuan/ton (-0.87%), 72,860 yuan/ton (-0.79%), and 72,600 yuan/ton (-1.04%) respectively [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 856 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1875 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6080 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7210 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,710 yuan/ton; the average prices of ternary materials 811 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and 613 (single - crystal/power type) are 147,550 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), 120,450 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and 125,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 970 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton; the price spreads between the near - month and the first - continuous contract, and the near - month and the second - continuous contract are - 200 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) and - 220 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) respectively [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons, down 981 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons, down 1757 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons, up 1216 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons, down 440 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,749 tons, up 300 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,297 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2,519 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly given, with a profit of - 7,944 yuan/ton [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rebound of lithium carbonate futures has deviated significantly from the fundamentals. Although the demand for new energy vehicles remains resilient, factors such as the widening of the spot discount, the continuous increase in inventory, and the narrowing profit margins of downstream cell enterprises all suppress high prices. Short - term capital push may continue under the influence of market news, but as new production capacities such as the Mami Cuo Salt Lake are gradually put into operation, and the resistance of cathode material manufacturers to high prices increases, it is expected that the futures price will return to the fundamental logic within the next 1 - 2 weeks, showing a trend of rising first and then falling [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.42% from the previous trading day. However, the basis weakened significantly, expanding from - 580 yuan/ton on July 11 to - 2,680 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient follow - up power in the spot market. The trading volume of the main contract soared 151.87% to 1.015 million lots, reaching a recent single - day high, and the open interest increased 10.31% to 356,000 lots [1] - **Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Changes**: The utilization rate of lithium salt production capacity slightly increased to 62%, and the medium - term supply was expected to be loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton respectively, and there was no obvious pressure on the cost side. In early July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 21% year - on - year but decreased 11% month - on - month, with short - term demand growth slowing down. The prices of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose moderately, while most cell prices remained stable. Downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of high - priced raw materials and mainly made rigid purchases. The social inventory of lithium carbonate climbed for four consecutive weeks to 141,000 physical tons, reaching a new high this year, and the warehouse receipts also accumulated, indicating insufficient actual digestion capacity in the spot market [2] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 64,280 yuan/ton on July 11 to 66,480 yuan/ton on July 14, an increase of 3.42%. The basis weakened from - 580 yuan/ton to - 2,680 yuan/ton, a change rate of - 362.07%. The open interest of the main contract increased 10.31%, and the trading volume increased 151.87%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium concentrates and some related products also had corresponding changes [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 14, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate continued to rise. The abnormal fluctuations in the futures market were mainly driven by short - term capital flows, not directly related to the industry fundamentals. The current price level has exceeded the general acceptance range of downstream enterprises, and only some enterprises with rigid procurement needs maintained basic transactions. Although some lithium salt producers have tried to adjust prices, the overall quotation strategy remains cautious [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The wholesale volume was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 0% [7] - **Industry News**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary participated in the investment in a project that received a construction permit, which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes. Zhongkuang Resources plans to carry out a technical upgrade project for its lithium salt production line. The Mami Cuo Salt Lake project has a total investment of 4.537 billion yuan and is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [9]