专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 【相关阅读】第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜出炉，海外市场研究第一名为兴业证券张忆东团队。 新浪财经整理张忆东最新观点如下： 张忆东最新观点：震荡不改长牛逻辑 "'4000点'只是行情逻辑的短期成果，既不是起点，更不是终点，甚至都不应该是思考中长期行情的重 点。" "往后看20年，到本世纪中叶，中国市场的这轮'长牛'立足于中国综合实力的提升，可以理解为'金融强 国牛'或'社会主义现代化强国牛'。我们不排除未来出现大幅调整的可能，但关键的大逻辑是中国经济增 长方式在转变，综合国力在提升。" "AI浪潮才刚刚开始，与90年代互联网浪潮'形似而神不似'，相似之处都是资本开支驱动，核心差异在 于时代背景不同，现在的科技是中美大国博弈的主阵地和必争之地。" "宏观层面看，新旧动能切换确实还没完全实现在经济数据上，但从资本市场的角度已经显现出新动能 跑赢旧动能的切换趋势。" "中国服务消费为核心的新消费浪潮已经启动，新消费的成长时代已经来临，未来的消费市场将呈现'总 量稳、新消费活'的格局。" "人形机器人目前还处于产业生命周期的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is seen as a short-term outcome rather than a starting or ending point, with a long-term bullish trend expected for the Chinese market driven by the country's comprehensive strength and economic transformation [2][96]. Group 1: Market Trends and Dynamics - The AI wave is just beginning, with similarities to the 1990s internet boom, but the current context is shaped by the US-China rivalry [2][51]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is not fully reflected in economic data yet, but capital markets are showing a trend where new drivers are outperforming old ones [2][53]. - A new consumption wave centered on service consumption has started, indicating a stable total market with active new consumption [2][56]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Investors should exercise patience and avoid chasing overheated segments, focusing instead on long-term fundamentals [4][110]. - The current market fluctuations are seen as a necessary phase that can lead to new opportunities, especially after the market digests existing divergences [14][16]. - The focus should be on identifying companies that can stand out in their respective industries rather than fixating on index levels [110]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is expected to see significant growth, with hardware and applications being key areas of investment, particularly in intelligent terminals and AI-related services [43][49]. - Traditional sectors are also expected to experience a recovery, driven by improved competition and potential mergers and acquisitions [70][76]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend is likely to catalyze improvements in traditional industries, with sectors like chemicals and new energy showing promise [71][75]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The US-China relationship is anticipated to enter a relatively stable phase leading up to the US midterm elections, which may positively impact capital markets [82][84]. - Geopolitical tensions, while a source of short-term volatility, are not expected to derail the long-term bullish trend of the Chinese market [24][96]. - The market is likely to see a shift in foreign investment dynamics, with external capital returning as confidence in Chinese assets improves [87][88].