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沥青:厂库回落,重心随油震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:48
Report Title Asphalt: Factory Inventory Declines, Price Center Oscillates Strongly with Oil Report Date July 15, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The asphalt market shows that the factory inventory has declined, and the price center oscillates strongly with the oil price. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2508 closed at 3,681 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 1.08%, and 3,679 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 3,977 lots, an increase of 1,660 lots, and the open interest was 12,525 lots, a decrease of 1,566 lots [1]. - BU2509 closed at 3,646 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.21%, and 3,649 yuan/ton in the night session with an increase of 0.08%. The trading volume was 151,549 lots, a decrease of 7,524 lots, and the open interest was 231,231 lots, an increase of 13,867 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: - The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 82,300 lots yesterday with no change [1]. - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 129 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 35 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton and 170 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,810 yuan/ton yesterday with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton yesterday with no change [1]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 805,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to July 10. The factory inventory in the East China region decreased the most due to the intermittent shutdown of the main refineries in the region, resulting in a decline in supply and a decrease in inventory driven by good ship shipments after the decline in ship prices [13]. - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.822 million tons, an increase of 0.2% compared to July 10. The social inventory in the southwest and Shandong regions increased significantly. In the southwest region, it was mainly due to the recent arrival of ships for warehousing, and in the Shandong region, it was mainly due to the transfer of some factory inventory resources to social warehouses [13]. - In the week from July 8 to July 14, 2025, according to Longzhong's tracking of 92 enterprises, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 568,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons (0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 92,000 tons (19.3%). The cumulative production from January to July was 15.946 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.046 million tons (7.0%) [13]. - The refinery operating rate was 34.60% on July 14, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points compared to July 10, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.00%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points compared to July 10 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - The price of asphalt follows the rapid decline of oil prices, and the regional spot price spread remains stable [10]. - The total open interest of the asphalt index and the Shandong basis strengthened and then partially converged [8].
沥青:油价反弹,震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:32
Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report is titled "Asphalt: Oil Price Rebound, Oscillating with an Upward Bias" dated May 7, 2025 [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook, with the range of trend strength being integers from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10] Group 2: Futures Market Data Futures Prices and Changes - BU2506 closed at 3,361 yuan/ton yesterday with a -1.38% change and 3,424 yuan/ton in the night session with a 1.87% change - BU2507 closed at 3,342 yuan/ton yesterday with a -1.42% change and 3,400 yuan/ton in the night session with a 1.74% change [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - BU2506 had a trading volume of 194,405 lots yesterday with an increase of 23,855 lots and an open interest of 113,918 lots with an increase of 984 lots - BU2507 had a trading volume of 53,094 lots yesterday with an increase of 8,137 lots and an open interest of 111,608 lots with an increase of 3,751 lots [1] Warehouse Receipts - The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 87,690 lots yesterday with no change [1] Spreads - The basis (Shandong - 06) was 209 yuan/ton yesterday, up 57 yuan from the previous day - The 06 - 07 inter - period spread was 19 yuan/ton yesterday, up 1 yuan from the previous day [1] Group 3: Spot Market Data Spot Prices - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to 3,679 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to 3,821 yuan/ton - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton yesterday, unchanged, with the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to 3,608 yuan/ton and the warehouse spot equivalent to 3,670 yuan/ton [1] Refinery Data - As of May 3, the refinery operating rate was 29.81%, up 2.10% from April 28 - As of May 3, the refinery inventory rate was 29.17%, down 0.42% from April 28 [1] Group 4: Market News - From April 30 to May 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.0%, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period, mainly due to Jiangsu Xinhai switching to producing residual oil during the holiday and Henan Fengli having no production plan during the holiday [11] - As of May 5, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 85.6 tons, a 0.7% decrease from April 28. The North China region had the largest de - stocking, mainly because local refineries had a low operating level and shipped goods under contracts [11] - As of May 5, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 197.3 tons, a 2.0% increase from April 28. The Yangtze River Delta region had obvious inventory accumulation, mainly due to good shipping and some cargoes arriving at ports and entering warehouses [11]