农产品早报 2025-12-29 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 【行情资讯】 上周五 CBOT 大豆高开回落收跌。周末国内豆粕现货下跌 10 元/吨，上周国内豆粕成交一般、提货量较 高。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 206.44 万吨，上周压榨大豆 184.04 万吨，上周饲企库存天数 为 9.45 天环比上升 0.22 天。 20251217T12Z 预报显示巴西大豆主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，阿根廷最大主产区布宜诺斯艾利斯 省降雨仍偏少，需持续关注其天气表现。预计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震 荡为主。 【策略观点】 进口成本方面，全球大豆新作产量一直被边际下调，总产量已持平于总需求，全球大豆供应相比 24/25 年度有所下降，这意味着进口成本的底部或已显现，但向上空间或需要更大的减产力度。当前国内 ...

12月19日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，甲醇期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，主力合约小幅收跌 1.10%，报2148.00元/吨。 库存方面，截至12月18日，华东港口甲醇库存为61.06万吨，12月11日为63.29万吨，环比减少2.23万 吨。 对于后市走势，光大期货表示，朗装置停车将导致12月中下旬至1月到港下滑，但MTO装置负荷同样下 降，短期由于卸货节奏偏慢，库存大幅下降，后期可能会有反弹，考虑到下游聚烯烃价格较难有大幅度 上涨，因此甲醇价格存在上限，预计甲醇维持底部震荡。 供应方面，兴业期货指出，本周生产企业开工率上升至90.52%，产量达到205.6万吨，创历史新高。由 于国内气头装置检修力度不足，12月产量将创历史新高。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，本周宁波富德、青海盐湖装置延续停车状态，MTO行业周均 开工下降，联泓格润MTO装置投产负荷陆续提升，短期行业开工率预期小幅增加。 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.35 80.74 3.61 开工率 73.844 73.627 0.217 产量 73.54 70.39 3.15 产线条数 219 218 1 重质产量 39.78 38.15 1.63 产量 108.4895 108.5095 -0.02 轻质产量 33.76 32.24 1.52 厂内库存 149.43 153.86 -4.43 库存 5822.7 5944.2 -121.5 重质库存 79.05 81.08 -2.03 库存可用天数 26.3 26.8 -0.5 轻质库存 70.38 72.78 -2.4 库存可用天数 12.39 12.76 -0.37 产销率 106.02 106.93 -0.91 天然气利润 -196.42 -223 26.58 氨碱法毛利 -67.6 -68.5 0.9 石油焦利润 35.64 21.36 14.28 联产法毛利 -49 -98.5 49.5 煤制气利润 6.51 6.52 -0.01 基差 10 -30 40 基差 71 47 24 1-5价差 50 70 -20 1-5价差 97 121 -24 品种套利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of imported soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [5] - The short - term inventory build - up of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [17] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] - For hog futures, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23] Summary by Categories Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined. The USDA monthly report was almost the same as the previous forecast. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the East China price at 3000 yuan/ton. The purchase and pick - up of soybean meal were good. MYSTEEL estimated the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased last week. [2] - **Weather and Planting**: Brazil's main soybean - growing areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with a planting rate of 94%. Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high year - on - year. [3] - **Import and Supply**: The estimated annual production of new global soybeans has been marginally lowered, and the supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching. [5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: In November, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the production showed a mixed trend. On Tuesday, domestic oils closed lower. [6] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations this year, suppressing the market. However, due to seasonal factors, it is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5247 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions remained stable. [11] - **Production**: As of December 7, 2025/26, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, down 112,500 tons year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and India's sugar production also increased significantly. [12] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the closing price of the May contract at 13,725 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, up 150,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. [16] - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to the lack of strong drivers and the pressure of hedging. [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.01 yuan/jin. The market inventory was low, and the demand in the sales areas was good. [19] - **Strategy**: The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic hog prices were half stable and half rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate, with the supply basically stable and the demand increasing only in the southwest region. [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on November 19, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Bean Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The price of US soybeans reached 1070 cents per bushel, hitting the cost line and triggering a correction. Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 6 cents per bushel. The cost of imported soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly by 20 yuan per ton, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan per ton. The trading and pick - up of soybean meal were both good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3492 million tons, compared with 2.0776 million tons last week. Soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week last week but remained high year - on - year [2] - In the next two weeks, the areas in the Brazilian soybean - producing regions with less rainfall in the early stage are expected to receive rainfall, and the sowing is expected to proceed smoothly. As of last Thursday, the planting progress had reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, tightening the global soybean balance sheet marginally. The US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but the US soybean exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory. The US soybean futures price thus corrected at high levels [3] Strategy View - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. The current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5] Group 3: Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days decreased by 10%. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, and was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. The US Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Domestic oils fluctuated on Tuesday and rose at night. The expectation of seasonal de - stocking supported the market, and the EPA's proposal for higher biodiesel usage in 2026 than expected also had an impact. The domestic spot basis was stable [7] Strategy View - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports has provided some support. The sustainability of this support needs to be observed. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to view palm oil as range - bound, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [8][10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5407 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups had no quotes for old sugar; Yunnan sugar - making groups' new sugar was quoted at 5630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5870 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The International Sugar Organization predicted that there would be a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, compared with a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. It is expected that the global sugar production will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, an increase of 473,700 tons or 13.8% year - on - year. As of now, 325 sugar mills in India have started production, an increase of 181 compared with the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 12.8 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons compared with the same period last year; the sugar production reached 1.05 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons; the average sugar yield was 8.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year [11][12] Strategy View - Recently, the strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the Zhengzhou sugar futures price, but the external market is still weak. Since August this year, due to the significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane - made sugar, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in the raw sugar price. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short at high prices [13] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell. The closing price of the January contract was 13,395 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1394 yuan per ton. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September estimate. The US cotton production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the Brazilian production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the Indian production remained at 5.23 million tons; the Chinese production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. As of the week of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [15][16] Strategy View - Fundamentally, the downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is also significant selling - hedging pressure due to this year's domestic bumper harvest. However, the previous decline in the futures price has digested some negative factors. The market currently lacks strong driving forces, and the cotton price is expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable to lower yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.08 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan per catty. The supply remained stable, the downstream demand was generally weak, and there was a small amount of inventory pressure. Traders were conservative, and the short - term bearish sentiment was mild. The egg price is expected to be stable to lower today [20] Strategy View - The futures price rebounded earlier than the spot price due to market expectations of a turnaround in the egg - laying hen inventory and increased demand after the temperature drop. The far - month contracts were relatively strong, but the spot price did not rise as expected, leading to an increase in the premium. The futures price fluctuated due to market sentiment. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of demand. The futures price is expected to trade in a range before the spot price realizes the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts are about the premium/discount game, and the far - month contracts reflect the expectation of production capacity reduction. In the medium term, as demand weakens and the focus returns to supply, pay attention to the upper resistance and look for opportunities to short on rebounds [21] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable with some minor increases yesterday. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 11.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan per kilogram. Farmers were reluctant to sell, and the supply of large - sized pigs was normal. The downstream had difficulty in purchasing at low prices. The pig price is expected to be stable to higher today [23] Strategy View - The current rebound in the pig price is mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large pig weight before the Spring Festival. In the context of oversupply, the general direction of the futures price is to short on rebounds. However, the current pattern of low prices and high open interest has formed, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, the first - recommended strategy is the reverse spread, followed by shorting on rebounds [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase of 6413 thousand barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending November 7, 2025, and the decrease of 849 thousand barrels per day in net crude oil exports were the main sources of inventory accumulation. After the release of the STEO report this week, the weekly production forecast was raised to a new high of 13.862 million barrels per day, the crude oil processing volume increased by 717 thousand barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded from a low level to 89.4%. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased. However, the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 6413 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 5202 thousand barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 346 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 30 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 798 thousand barrels, compared with 498 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 945 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 4729 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 637 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 643 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 1119 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 277 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 1226 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 84 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 2524 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 633 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.862 million barrels per day, compared with 13.651 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 20.77 million barrels per day, compared with 20.356 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.028 million barrels per day, compared with 8.874 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.018 million barrels per day, compared with 3.71 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.222 million barrels per day, compared with 5.924 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil exports: 2.816 million barrels per day, compared with 4.367 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.973 million barrels per day, compared with 15.256 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 89.4%, compared with 86% in the previous period [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. Core View of the Report - Soybean meal is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is still to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to view it with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. - For live pigs, the current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The USDA has resumed data release and announced the schedule for the soybean sales report. The Brazilian soybean planting rate as of last Thursday reached 61% of the expected level, lower than 67% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern part of the Brazilian soybean - producing area will be uneven and scarce, while it will be normal in other areas. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost is mainly in a volatile state. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering. In the medium - term, the strategy is still to sell on rallies as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and from November 1 - 10, it decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. India's palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October all decreased compared with September. Indonesia plans to start road tests on vehicles using biodiesel with a 50% palm oil content in early December and implement the "B50" mandatory measure in the second half of next year. Domestic oils showed a divergent trend on Thursday, with palm oil being weak and rapeseed oil being strong [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to view palm oil with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons. Datagro has lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season [9]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. As of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, showing a decline. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index remained unchanged, while the hand - picked cotton purchase index decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is average [15]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic live pig price continued to decline yesterday. The demand side shows no sign of improvement, and the upstream breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. - **Sugar**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. - **Pigs**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable on Wednesday, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL statistics showed that the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. MYSTEEL predicted that the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and the production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. The 2025/26 annual rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons. Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. On Wednesday, the domestic oil prices showed a differentiated trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The survey showed that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons in the second half of October. Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%. On November 11, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the purchase index of hand - picked cotton decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.92 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped by 0.01 yuan to 2.95 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the market demand was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mainly stable with a few narrow adjustments [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.14 yuan to 11.84 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 11.43 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped by 0.13 yuan to 11.46 yuan/kg. The demand was weak, and it is expected that today's pig price will continue to decline [21]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - **Corn**: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].