本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 85.04 84.72 0.32 开工率 70.610 70.610 0.000 产量 79.09 78.81 0.28 产线条数 209 209 0 重质产量 42.3 41.98 0.32 产量 103.8365 103.5965 0.24 轻质产量 36.79 36.83 -0.04 厂内库存 189.44 158.8 30.64 库存 7600.8 5535.2 2065.6 重质库存 89.59 75.64 13.95 库存可用天数 33.8 24.4 9.4 轻质库存 99.85 83.16 16.69 库存可用天数 14.26 13.17 1.09 产销率 61.12 99.13 -38.01 天然气利润 -142.26 -166.55 24.29 氨碱法毛利 -90.15 -89.25 -0.9 石油焦利润 43.93 43.93 0 联产法毛利 -1.5 -32.5 31 煤制气利润 -30.79 -28.87 -1.92 基差 -40 -50 10 基差 -31 -61 30 1-5价差 -109 -110 1 1-5价差 -159 -155 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 相关报告 1、《沃什当选与 PPI 提前转 正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要 矛盾———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-02-01 2、《为什么伊朗局势一波三 折？———国际时政周评》 2026-02-01 3、《金属价格为何如此繁荣— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 3 期）》2026-01-26 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 2025 年周平均工作时间有所下降 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 4 期） 频率：每周 降低就业人员工作时长，有助于增加消费场景，对提升居民消费率有帮助作 用。 定期报告 根据国家统计局的数据，企业就业人员每周平均工作时间为 48.43 小时，低 于 2023 和 2024 年时长，但仍明显高于疫情前的水平。去年，除 1 月外，2- 12 月每周平均工作时间均低于 2023-2024 年同期水平。 工作时长的缩短自然会增加居民的闲暇时间。根据我们的测算扣 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. - For palm oil, the Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. - For sugar, international sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. - For cotton, the market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. - For eggs, the spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. - For pigs, short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans opened higher and then fell. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from last week's 1.8404 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.45 days last week, up 0.22 days [2]. - Forecasts show more rain in major Brazilian soybean - growing areas in the next two weeks, while rainfall in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, remains low [2]. 策略观点 - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With large domestic inventories and fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking speed is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [3]. Palm Oil 行情资讯 - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December. Ship - loading data indicates mixed trends in exports [4]. - India's vegetable oil imports decreased by about 11% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year in November [4]. - Indonesia plans to fine palm oil growers and miners $8.5 billion for forest encroachment [4]. - Last Friday, domestic oils continued to rebound, with better Malaysian palm oil export data and Indonesia's fine plan being positive factors, but high production and low exports limited the market [4]. 策略观点 - The Q1 inventory outlook depends on production and export data. If production is high and exports are weak, prices may decline; if production is low, prices may rise. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [6]. Sugar 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fluctuated strongly. The May contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% [8]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [9]. - In November, Brazil's central - southern region had a 21.08% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing and a 32.94% decrease in sugar production [9]. - As of December 15, India's cumulative sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons [9]. 策略观点 - International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. Domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short term as import supplies decrease [10]. Cotton 行情资讯 - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose with increased positions. The May contract closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton or 1.96% [12]. - In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 900,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons [12]. - As of December 26, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.7%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year, and down 6.7 percentage points from the five - year average [12]. - The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [12]. 策略观点 - The market has anticipated the reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area. With a balanced supply - demand relationship and positive expectations, the price trend is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [13]. Eggs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were stable or rising. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, while that in Guantao remained at 2.82 yuan/jin. Egg prices may rebound slightly recently but may fall after the New Year's Day [15]. 策略观点 - The spot market has improved expectations but is still under pressure. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectations. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term upside pressure [16]. Pigs 行情资讯 - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices rose significantly. The average price in Henan increased by 0.56 yuan to 12.42 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan increased by 0.67 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. Pig prices are expected to be stable or rising today [18]. 策略观点 - Short - term spot prices may remain strong, but the supply - demand tightness is structural. The strategy is to sell on rallies for the near - term and pay attention to long - term downside support [19].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.10% to 2148.00 CNY/ton [1] Supply - The operating rate of production enterprises has increased to 90.52%, with production reaching 2.056 million tons, marking a historical high [1] - Domestic gas-based methanol production facilities are undergoing insufficient maintenance, leading to record production levels in December [1] Demand - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) industry is seeing a decrease in weekly average operating rates due to the continued shutdown of facilities at Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake [1] - The operational load of the Lianhong Gelun MTO facility is gradually increasing, which is expected to result in a slight increase in industry operating rates in the short term [1] Inventory - As of December 18, methanol inventory at East China ports was 610,600 tons, down from 632,900 tons on December 11, reflecting a decrease of 22,300 tons [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the shutdown of certain facilities will lead to a decline in imports from mid to late December into January, while MTO facility loads are also expected to decrease [1] - Due to slow unloading rates, there is a significant drop in inventory, which may lead to a rebound in prices; however, the potential for a substantial increase in downstream polyolefin prices is limited, suggesting a price ceiling for methanol [1] - Methanol prices are expected to maintain a bottom oscillation trend [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current week's soda ash开工率 is 84.35%, up 3.61 from the previous value, and the产量 is 73.54 tons, up 3.15 tons. The heavy产量 is 39.78 tons, up 1.63 tons, and the light产量 is 33.76 tons, up 1.52 tons. The current week's float glass开工率 is 73.844%, up 0.217 from the previous value, the number of production lines is 219, up 1, and the产量 is 108.4895 tons, down 0.02 tons [1] Inventory - The current week's soda ash厂内库存 is 149.43 tons, down 4.43 tons. The heavy库存 is 79.05 tons, down 2.03 tons, and the light库存 is 70.38 tons, down 2.4 tons. The库存可用天数 is 12.39 days, down 0.37 days. The current week's float glass库存 is 5822.7 ten thousand weight boxes, down 121.5 ten thousand weight boxes, and the库存可用天数 is 26.3 days, down 0.5 days [1] Profit - The current week's soda ash天然气利润 is -196.42 yuan/ton, up 26.58 yuan/ton. The氨碱法毛利 is -67.6 yuan/ton, up 0.9 yuan/ton, the联产法毛利 is -49 yuan/ton, up 49.5 yuan/ton. The float glass石油焦利润 is 35.64 yuan/ton, up 14.28 yuan/ton, the煤制气利润 is 6.51 yuan/ton, down 0.01 yuan/ton [1] Basis & Spread - The current week's soda ash基差 is 10, up 40 from the previous value, the 1 - 5价差 is 50, down 20. The float glass基差 is 71, up 24, the 1 - 5价差 is 97, down 24. The纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 147, down 5, and the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 100, down 1 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of imported soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside space requires greater production cuts. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [5] - The short - term inventory build - up of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [17] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] - For hog futures, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23] Summary by Categories Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined. The USDA monthly report was almost the same as the previous forecast. The domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the East China price at 3000 yuan/ton. The purchase and pick - up of soybean meal were good. MYSTEEL estimated the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased last week. [2] - **Weather and Planting**: Brazil's main soybean - growing areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with a planting rate of 94%. Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high year - on - year. [3] - **Import and Supply**: The estimated annual production of new global soybeans has been marginally lowered, and the supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The domestic soybean inventory is at a relatively high level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching. [5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: In November, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, and the production showed a mixed trend. On Tuesday, domestic oils closed lower. [6] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations this year, suppressing the market. However, due to seasonal factors, it is recommended to try a buy - on - dips strategy. [9] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 5247 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in different regions remained stable. [11] - **Production**: As of December 7, 2025/26, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 425,000 tons, down 112,500 tons year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and India's sugar production also increased significantly. [12] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand relationship will shift from shortage to surplus. It is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated, with the closing price of the May contract at 13,725 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, up 150,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. [16] - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to the lack of strong drivers and the pressure of hedging. [17] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few rising. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.01 yuan/jin. The market inventory was low, and the demand in the sales areas was good. [19] - **Strategy**: The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upside pressure. [20] Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic hog prices were half stable and half rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate, with the supply basically stable and the demand increasing only in the southwest region. [22] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to longing far - term contracts. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on November 19, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Bean Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The price of US soybeans reached 1070 cents per bushel, hitting the cost line and triggering a correction. Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 6 cents per bushel. The cost of imported soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly by 20 yuan per ton, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan per ton. The trading and pick - up of soybean meal were both good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3492 million tons, compared with 2.0776 million tons last week. Soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week last week but remained high year - on - year [2] - In the next two weeks, the areas in the Brazilian soybean - producing regions with less rainfall in the early stage are expected to receive rainfall, and the sowing is expected to proceed smoothly. As of last Thursday, the planting progress had reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, tightening the global soybean balance sheet marginally. The US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but the US soybean exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory. The US soybean futures price thus corrected at high levels [3] Strategy View - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. The current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5] Group 3: Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days decreased by 10%. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, and was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. The US Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Domestic oils fluctuated on Tuesday and rose at night. The expectation of seasonal de - stocking supported the market, and the EPA's proposal for higher biodiesel usage in 2026 than expected also had an impact. The domestic spot basis was stable [7] Strategy View - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports has provided some support. The sustainability of this support needs to be observed. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to view palm oil as range - bound, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [8][10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5407 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups had no quotes for old sugar; Yunnan sugar - making groups' new sugar was quoted at 5630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5870 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The International Sugar Organization predicted that there would be a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, compared with a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. It is expected that the global sugar production will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, an increase of 473,700 tons or 13.8% year - on - year. As of now, 325 sugar mills in India have started production, an increase of 181 compared with the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 12.8 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons compared with the same period last year; the sugar production reached 1.05 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons; the average sugar yield was 8.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year [11][12] Strategy View - Recently, the strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the Zhengzhou sugar futures price, but the external market is still weak. Since August this year, due to the significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane - made sugar, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in the raw sugar price. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short at high prices [13] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell. The closing price of the January contract was 13,395 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1394 yuan per ton. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September estimate. The US cotton production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the Brazilian production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the Indian production remained at 5.23 million tons; the Chinese production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. As of the week of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [15][16] Strategy View - Fundamentally, the downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is also significant selling - hedging pressure due to this year's domestic bumper harvest. However, the previous decline in the futures price has digested some negative factors. The market currently lacks strong driving forces, and the cotton price is expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable to lower yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.08 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan per catty. The supply remained stable, the downstream demand was generally weak, and there was a small amount of inventory pressure. Traders were conservative, and the short - term bearish sentiment was mild. The egg price is expected to be stable to lower today [20] Strategy View - The futures price rebounded earlier than the spot price due to market expectations of a turnaround in the egg - laying hen inventory and increased demand after the temperature drop. The far - month contracts were relatively strong, but the spot price did not rise as expected, leading to an increase in the premium. The futures price fluctuated due to market sentiment. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of demand. The futures price is expected to trade in a range before the spot price realizes the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts are about the premium/discount game, and the far - month contracts reflect the expectation of production capacity reduction. In the medium term, as demand weakens and the focus returns to supply, pay attention to the upper resistance and look for opportunities to short on rebounds [21] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable with some minor increases yesterday. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 11.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan per kilogram. Farmers were reluctant to sell, and the supply of large - sized pigs was normal. The downstream had difficulty in purchasing at low prices. The pig price is expected to be stable to higher today [23] Strategy View - The current rebound in the pig price is mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large pig weight before the Spring Festival. In the context of oversupply, the general direction of the futures price is to short on rebounds. However, the current pattern of low prices and high open interest has formed, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, the first - recommended strategy is the reverse spread, followed by shorting on rebounds [24]