Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The recent medium to long-term strategies have shown strong cumulative returns, with perpetual bond duration, secondary bond bullet-type, and secondary bond duration strategies achieving cumulative excess returns of 13bp, 11.2bp, and 11.1bp respectively [2][12] - The secondary bond duration strategy has rebounded significantly, but its volatility is much higher than that of the downshift strategy, which has a cumulative return of 9.2bp, demonstrating both low volatility and strong recovery advantages [2][12] Group 2: ETF Trends - From October 13 to October 17, bond ETFs experienced a net outflow of 13.36 billion yuan, with credit bond ETFs, interest rate bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs seeing net outflows of 7.46 billion yuan, 4.96 billion yuan, and 0.94 billion yuan respectively [3][16] - In terms of performance, credit bond ETFs, interest rate bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs had weekly net value changes of +0.11%, +0.32%, and -1.77% respectively, indicating a significant pullback in convertible bond ETFs while credit and interest rate bond ETFs showed marginal recovery [3][16] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Coupon Assets - As of October 20, 2025, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate corporate bonds have mostly declined, particularly for public offerings of private enterprises within one year [4][19] - The yields of financial bonds have generally decreased, with bank subordinated bonds performing well, especially the yields of 3-5 year perpetual bonds from state-owned banks and city commercial banks dropping by over 4.5bp [4][19] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Tracking - The number of transactions for long-term credit bonds has not increased significantly, with a total of 276 transactions for bonds with a duration of 7 years or more during the week of October 13 to October 17, indicating ongoing concerns about duration risk in the market [5][21] - The improvement in transaction numbers is more concentrated in secondary capital bonds and interest rate bonds, suggesting a cautious market sentiment towards long-term credit bonds [5][21] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading - During the week of October 13 to October 17, 7-10 year local government bonds outperformed the same duration national and credit bonds, with indices for these bonds rising by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively [6][25] - The performance of bonds with a duration of over 10 years was weaker compared to national bonds, which saw a weekly increase of over 1% [6][25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of October 10, the heavy - position portfolios of medium - to - long - term secondary capital bonds and ultra - long industrial bonds performed better. The average return of the heavy - position portfolio of credit - style secondary capital bonds increased slightly last week, and the bullet - type strategy had an absolute return of around 0.15% with relatively small cumulative drawdown in Q3. The ultra - long bond heavy - position strategy's return rebounded by nearly 25bp, with the industrial ultra - long strategy reaching a relatively high level of 0.2% [2][12]. - The durations of mainstream credit bond varieties continued to shorten. As of October 10, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.65 years and 1.88 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.79 years, 3.36 years, and 1.69 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level [3][14]. - As of October 13, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds were generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds generally declined, with an average decline of 6.4BP for varieties within 1 year [4][16]. - From the perspective of yields, the average return level of exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds remained stable this week. The return of the relatively active 1 - 3 - year varieties increased by 3bp to 1.93%, while the interest rates of 3 - 5 - year varieties decreased, and the spread with non - science and technology general credit bonds of the same term widened to around 40bp [5][20]. - Affected by the National Day holiday, local government bonds worth 10.3 billion yuan were issued from October 9 to 10, all of which were refinancing general bonds. As of October 10, 2025, no special refinancing special bonds were issued in October. The average issuance interest rate of local government bonds declined marginally, and the spread between the 10 - year local government bond issuance rate and the same - term treasury bond rate was stable at around 25bp [6][22]. Summary by Directory Quantified Credit Strategy - As of October 10, the heavy - position portfolios of medium - to - long - term secondary capital bonds and ultra - long industrial bonds performed better. The average return of the heavy - position portfolio of credit - style secondary capital bonds increased slightly last week. The bullet - type strategy, with its previous declines gradually narrowing, had an absolute return of around 0.15% and relatively small cumulative drawdown in Q3, having both defensive and rebound - betting advantages. The secondary bond duration strategy was also strong. The return of the ultra - long bond heavy - position strategy rebounded by nearly 25bp, and the industrial ultra - long strategy reached a relatively high level of 0.2% [2][12]. Variety Duration Tracking - The durations of mainstream credit bond varieties continued to shorten. As of October 10, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.65 years and 1.88 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.79 years, 3.36 years, and 1.69 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.37 years, 1.79 years, 3.22 years, and 1.11 years respectively. The durations of securities sub - bonds and leasing company bonds shortened, and securities company bonds were at a relatively low historical percentile [3][14]. Coupon Asset Heat Map - As of October 13, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds were generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bonds generally declined, with an average decline of 6.4BP for varieties within 1 year. The interest rate declines of general commercial financial bonds were basically around 5BP. Among the second - tier perpetual bonds, the 2 - 5 - year varieties performed better, and the yield of 2 - 3 - year state - owned large - bank secondary capital bonds declined by more than 10BP. In addition, the yield of publicly - offered non - perpetual securities company bonds and sub - bonds within 1 year declined by 7.0BP [4][16][18]. Science and Technology Innovation Bond Prism - From the perspective of yields, the average return level of exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds remained stable this week. The return of the relatively active 1 - 3 - year varieties increased by 3bp to 1.93%, while the interest rates of 3 - 5 - year varieties decreased, and the spread with non - science and technology general credit bonds of the same term widened to around 40bp. After the holiday, the absolute value of the low - valuation deviation of 3 - 5 - year exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds was also higher than that of science and technology innovation bonds of other terms or general credit bonds of the same term, indicating that investors' preference for science and technology innovation bonds of this term recovered relatively quickly [5][20]. Local Bond Perspective - Affected by the National Day holiday, local government bonds worth 10.3 billion yuan were issued from October 9 to 10, all of which were refinancing general bonds. As of October 10, 2025, no special refinancing special bonds were issued in October. The average issuance interest rate of local government bonds declined marginally, and the spread between the 10 - year local government bond issuance rate and the same - term treasury bond rate was stable at around 25bp [6][22].