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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250822
申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 (从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919) 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 (核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号) 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性,对未来预测存在不及预期,以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格,保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道,分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解,本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点,力求独立、客观和公正,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响,作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息,本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证,也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价,投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨,投资者应合 ...
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250821
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The polyolefin futures closed positive yesterday. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled down, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The future market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes on the supply side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7347, 7340, and 7308 respectively, with increases of 40, 49, and 40 and涨幅 of 0.55%, 0.67%, and 0.55% respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7056, 7062, and 7026 respectively, with increases of 40, 30, and 39 and涨幅 of 0.57%, 0.43%, and 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 400529, 7534, and 95001 respectively, and the open interests were 381563, 20465, and 90092 respectively. The open interest changes were 21423, 1614, and - 35644 respectively. For拉丝 PP futures, the trading volumes were 341106, 14955, and 58830 respectively, the open interests were 442583, 31841, and 61893 respectively, and the open interest changes were 25989, 2844, and - 19500 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 7, 32, and - 39 respectively, compared with previous values of 16, 23, and - 39. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 36, and - 30 respectively, compared with previous values of - 16, 45, and - 29 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2427 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, 570 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to previous values [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the middle - stream market, the current price ranges of linear LL in East China, North China, and South China were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝 PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Wednesday (August 20), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.21 per barrel, up $0.86 or 1.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $63.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.84 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.81 - $67.06 [2].