日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 聚烯烃日报 行业 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 每日报告 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Domestically, the macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - and late August. The market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes in supply and cost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7386, 7383, and 7331 respectively, with increases of 39 (0.53%), 43 (0.59%), and 23 (0.31%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 381879, 6260, and 52643 respectively, and the open interests were 386389, 21714, and 75937 respectively, with changes of +4826, +1249, and - 14155 [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7048, 7068, and 7016 respectively, with changes of - 8 (-0.11%), +6 (0.08%), and - 10 (-0.14%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 252769, 12288, and 31224 respectively, and the open interests were 453181, 32678, and 54053 respectively, with changes of +10598, +837, and - 7840 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 3, 52, and - 55 respectively (previous values: 7, 32, - 39). For PP, the spreads were - 20, 52, and - 32 respectively (previous values: - 6, 36, - 30) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2428 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, Shandong propylene increased, while others remained stable [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: In the mid - stream spot market, the price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The price ranges of PP in these three markets were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (August 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, up $0.81 (1.29%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.67 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.24%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.74 - $67.80 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - **Supply**: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - **Demand**: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - **Cost**: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - **Other Data**: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7232 | 7220 | 7246 | 7204 | -52 | -0.72% | 113848 | 7043 | | Plastic 2605 | 7219 | 7197 | 7221 | 7188 | -69 | -0.95% | 1781 | 197 | | Plastic 2509 | 7272 | 7247 | 7277 | 7229 | -61 | -0.83% | 448912 | 231 | | PP2601 | 7042 | 7021 | 7049 | 7009 | -32 | -0.45% | 110370 | 2632 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 7008 | 7016 | 7007 | -35 | -0.50% | 3713 | 45 | | PP2509 | 7074 | 7057 | 7082 | 7043 | -34 | -0.48% | 405039 | -9584 | [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The futures market opened low and oscillated weakly, dampening the trading atmosphere. Some factory prices were lowered, and traders quoted prices according to the market. End - users mainly replenished at low prices. New production capacities are being put into operation, and the intensity of device overhauls is weakening, so the supply side is under pressure. In July, there are plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure is increasing. The demand is in the off - season and lacks support. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, and the supply - demand margin is deteriorating, with a unilateral weak downward trend [6] Group 5: Industry News - Inventory: On July 7, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a stockpiling of 70,000 tons compared with the previous working day, an increase of 9.86%. The inventory in the same period last year was 795,000 tons. - PE Market: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. - Propylene Market: The propylene price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea declined. As of the close, the mainstream price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea was 6370 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Lianyungang was 6410 yuan/ton. Some PDH plants in the north are expected to restart, the supply side is bearish, downstream enterprises are waiting and watching, the cross - regional arbitrage space across the west of the Yellow Sea is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is poor. - PP Market: The PP market declined slightly, with a decline range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Most traders mainly sold at reduced prices according to their own situations. The follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient, and the intention to enter the market was mediocre. The overall trading was average. In the morning, the mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7020 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7060 - 7250 yuan/ton. [7] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Futures prices of plastics and PP showed a weak and volatile trend, suppressing the trading atmosphere in the spot market. The supply side had few new maintenance, and the loss of device maintenance decreased. The domestic supply of PP was on the rise. The downstream industry entered the traditional off - season, with insufficient new orders and slow construction progress due to weather. The basis of plastics and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in polyolefins from high levels, and attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The L2509 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.27%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The main PP contract closed at 7084 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.42%), with a decrease of 24,000 lots in positions. The weak futures market affected the spot market, with traders reducing prices and end - users being cautious [3][4] - **Supply Side**: There were few new maintenance, and the loss of device maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into production on June 19, 2025, increasing the domestic supply [4] - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. The high raw material prices and weak downstream profits made it difficult to significantly improve the enthusiasm for raw material procurement [4] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On June 25, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 765,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (- 1.92%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 740,000 tons [5] - **PE Market**: The prices of the PE market partially declined. The prices of LLDPE in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 7280 - 7500 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5] - **Propylene Market**: The price center of propylene on the west coast of the Yellow Sea moved down. The mainstream price was 6650 yuan/ton, and the market was light with enterprises focusing on shipments and downstream being cautious [5] - **PP Market**: The PP market declined by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of PP drawing materials in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 7060 - 7180 yuan/ton, 7130 - 7230 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]