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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 06:51
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6810 yuan/ton, closed at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6891 yuan/ton, closed at 6886 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.36%), with an open interest of 84,049 lots and an increase of 4,698 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6930 yuan/ton, closed at 6935 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with an open interest of 2,088 lots and an increase of 68 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6490 yuan/ton, closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,784 lots and an increase of 8,183 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6605 yuan/ton, closed at 6592 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with an open interest of 147,404 lots and an increase of 1,154 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6624 yuan/ton, closed at 6622 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.45%), with an open interest of 7,179 lots and a decrease of 46 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots. PP2601 closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,800 lots and an increase of 818,000 lots [6] - Futures remained weak, which was negative for market sentiment. Most trade offers fell, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with only rigid demand purchases [6] - There are no new investment plans in November. Some maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and the device operating load may continue to increase, and the pressure of new capacity expansion will intensify the imbalance between supply and demand [6] - The seasonal peak of agricultural film production has passed, and the demand for pipes has increased first and then decreased. The production of PP woven bags has been boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The downstream is dominated by fear of falling prices, and the willingness to stock up is low, which further drags down the transaction price [6] - In general, under the dual effects of weak cost support and continuous loose supply and demand, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue [6] Group 4: Industry News - On November 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons [7] - The PE market price continued to be weak. The price of LLDPE in North China was 6,780 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,150 - 7,500 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,650 - 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream demand continued to be weak, and the willingness of production enterprises to sell at a discount was obvious. The decline of propylene price widened, and the downstream factories were more wait - and - see, and the overall market transaction was still average [7] - The PP market remained weak, and the prices of some grades dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6,220 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,330 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,390 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:09
Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average, with traders adjusting prices slightly. Spot prices were mainly stable, and downstream buyers made small - quantity replenishments. The approaching double - festivals increased packaging demand, but market confidence was insufficient, resulting in limited demand drive, weak rebound, and low - level weak fluctuations [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated slightly up during the session, and closed up at 7181 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.25%). Trading volume was 197,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 16,900 lots to 537,691 lots. PP2601 closed at 6903 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.04%), and open interest decreased by 7,767 lots to 602,003 lots [5][6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 560,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (0.90%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 660,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: PE market prices fluctuated slightly. Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The trading atmosphere was average. Traders adjusted prices slightly, and spot prices were mainly stable. Downstream buyers made small - quantity replenishments. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7,100 - 7,350 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,220 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,250 - 7,700 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was temporarily 6,370 - 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some major producers restarted, increasing short - term supply. Downstream factories were waiting and buying at low prices. The transaction of producers improved little, with most offers stable and some slightly discounted [7] - **PP Market**: Most PP market prices fluctuated slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,630 - 6,750 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,680 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,650 - 6,800 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report provided figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][15][17]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Futures prices of polyolefins opened higher, fluctuated, and rose slightly. Some traders tentatively raised their quotes, but spot prices showed mixed trends. Downstream buyers purchased raw materials based on orders, and the market's inventory digestion speed was average. Despite increased demand for packaging around the Double Festivals, market confidence was insufficient for large - scale restocking, resulting in limited demand - driven growth and a weak, low - level oscillating market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7142 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (0.48%), with a trading volume of 190,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 17,901 lots to 571,775 lots. - **PP Futures**: PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan (0.39%), with a decrease in positions by 15,873 lots to 636,500 lots [3][4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons (5.97%) from the previous working day, compared to 735,000 tons in the same period last year. - **PE Market**: PE market prices showed mixed trends. In North China, LLDPE prices ranged from 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton; in East China, from 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton; and in South China, from 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. Market supply was on the rise, producers were willing to offer discounts, and downstream factories purchased at lower prices, with better low - end transactions. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. Downstream factories had limited new orders, and their pre - holiday purchasing enthusiasm was low. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, and two - oil inventory and its year - on - year change, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [10][11][12].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250822
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Domestically, the macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - and late August. The market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes in supply and cost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7386, 7383, and 7331 respectively, with increases of 39 (0.53%), 43 (0.59%), and 23 (0.31%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 381879, 6260, and 52643 respectively, and the open interests were 386389, 21714, and 75937 respectively, with changes of +4826, +1249, and - 14155 [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7048, 7068, and 7016 respectively, with changes of - 8 (-0.11%), +6 (0.08%), and - 10 (-0.14%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 252769, 12288, and 31224 respectively, and the open interests were 453181, 32678, and 54053 respectively, with changes of +10598, +837, and - 7840 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 3, 52, and - 55 respectively (previous values: 7, 32, - 39). For PP, the spreads were - 20, 52, and - 32 respectively (previous values: - 6, 36, - 30) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2428 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, Shandong propylene increased, while others remained stable [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: In the mid - stream spot market, the price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The price ranges of PP in these three markets were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (August 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, up $0.81 (1.29%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.67 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.24%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.74 - $67.80 [2].
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250812
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - **Supply**: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - **Demand**: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - **Cost**: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - **Other Data**: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250708
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 01:42
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7232 | 7220 | 7246 | 7204 | -52 | -0.72% | 113848 | 7043 | | Plastic 2605 | 7219 | 7197 | 7221 | 7188 | -69 | -0.95% | 1781 | 197 | | Plastic 2509 | 7272 | 7247 | 7277 | 7229 | -61 | -0.83% | 448912 | 231 | | PP2601 | 7042 | 7021 | 7049 | 7009 | -32 | -0.45% | 110370 | 2632 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 7008 | 7016 | 7007 | -35 | -0.50% | 3713 | 45 | | PP2509 | 7074 | 7057 | 7082 | 7043 | -34 | -0.48% | 405039 | -9584 | [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The futures market opened low and oscillated weakly, dampening the trading atmosphere. Some factory prices were lowered, and traders quoted prices according to the market. End - users mainly replenished at low prices. New production capacities are being put into operation, and the intensity of device overhauls is weakening, so the supply side is under pressure. In July, there are plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure is increasing. The demand is in the off - season and lacks support. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, and the supply - demand margin is deteriorating, with a unilateral weak downward trend [6] Group 5: Industry News - Inventory: On July 7, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a stockpiling of 70,000 tons compared with the previous working day, an increase of 9.86%. The inventory in the same period last year was 795,000 tons. - PE Market: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. - Propylene Market: The propylene price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea declined. As of the close, the mainstream price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea was 6370 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Lianyungang was 6410 yuan/ton. Some PDH plants in the north are expected to restart, the supply side is bearish, downstream enterprises are waiting and watching, the cross - regional arbitrage space across the west of the Yellow Sea is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is poor. - PP Market: The PP market declined slightly, with a decline range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Most traders mainly sold at reduced prices according to their own situations. The follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient, and the intention to enter the market was mediocre. The overall trading was average. In the morning, the mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7020 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7060 - 7250 yuan/ton. [7] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250626
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Futures prices of plastics and PP showed a weak and volatile trend, suppressing the trading atmosphere in the spot market. The supply side had few new maintenance, and the loss of device maintenance decreased. The domestic supply of PP was on the rise. The downstream industry entered the traditional off - season, with insufficient new orders and slow construction progress due to weather. The basis of plastics and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in polyolefins from high levels, and attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The L2509 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.27%), with a trading volume of 310,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The main PP contract closed at 7084 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan (- 0.42%), with a decrease of 24,000 lots in positions. The weak futures market affected the spot market, with traders reducing prices and end - users being cautious [3][4] - **Supply Side**: There were few new maintenance, and the loss of device maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into production on June 19, 2025, increasing the domestic supply [4] - **Demand Side**: The downstream industry entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. The high raw material prices and weak downstream profits made it difficult to significantly improve the enthusiasm for raw material procurement [4] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On June 25, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 765,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (- 1.92%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 740,000 tons [5] - **PE Market**: The prices of the PE market partially declined. The prices of LLDPE in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 7280 - 7500 yuan/ton, 7350 - 7800 yuan/ton, and 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5] - **Propylene Market**: The price center of propylene on the west coast of the Yellow Sea moved down. The mainstream price was 6650 yuan/ton, and the market was light with enterprises focusing on shipments and downstream being cautious [5] - **PP Market**: The PP market declined by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of PP drawing materials in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 7060 - 7180 yuan/ton, 7130 - 7230 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively [5]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250520
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:10
Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]