1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the weakening of spot procurement sentiment, the decline of soybean inventory in domestic oil mills, the upcoming seasonal maintenance of oil mills, and the weakening of downstream inventory replenishment sentiment. In the short - term, the domestic market is affected by the possible recovery of Brazilian shipments, and the medium - term supply is expected to be large. The rapeseed meal futures are influenced by the decline of rapeseed purchase profit and the expected return of supply in the far - month, as well as the approaching of the aquaculture stocking season in South China and the increasing cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and in oil mills remains at a seasonal high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the downstream feed mills are starting to replenish inventory. The warehouse receipts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are decreasing. In the long - term, the cost of imported soybeans remains high, the import profit is falling, and the procurement is slowing down. The supply gap of rapeseed meal is expected to be alleviated. The downstream pig production capacity reduction is slow, and the South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: Spot sentiment has declined, and procurement has weakened. The overall soybean inventory in oil mills has decreased, the domestic oil mill crushing volume has increased, but there are seasonal maintenance plans. The downstream inventory replenishment has led to a weakening of trading sentiment. The US - China negotiation in April has been postponed, and the external market is concerned about the biodiesel policy meeting and the end - of - month planting area. The domestic market is affected by the possible recovery of Brazilian shipments, and the medium - term supply is large. The rapeseed futures are also under pressure [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase profit of rapeseed has declined, and the far - month supply is expected to return. The aquaculture stocking season in South China is approaching, and the cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal has increased due to the widening price difference with soybean meal [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - price Strategy**: For un - priced basis, consider pricing when the Brazilian premium starts to decline. For priced basis, be vigilant about the subsequent sales rhythm. In the medium - term decline cycle, continue to consider fixed - price procurement [19]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: After funds left the high - level, near - month funds began to shift to far - month contracts. The bottom of the far - month soybean meal is around 2,900 - 3,000, and the near - month is around 2,800 - 2,900. Hold or partially take profit on the soybean meal inter - month reverse spread [20]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: Hold the soybean meal inter - month reverse spread [21]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Take profit on the widening spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2605 contracts [21]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2,800 - 3,300, with a current volatility of 15.9% and a historical percentile of 46.1% over three years. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2,250 - 2,750, with a current volatility of 22.4% and a historical percentile of 66.7% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts have declined to varying degrees. The price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [23]. - **Price Differences**: The price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot - futures price differences, have changed. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal remained unchanged, while the futures price difference decreased [23]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of soybeans and rapeseed from different regions have changed [24][26]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 75%, still lagging behind last year. The US EPA has determined the renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027, increasing the blending volume of biomass - based diesel. Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel plan. The market expects an increase in the US soybean planting area in 2026 [26][27][28]. - **Negative Information**: Rising fertilizer and fuel prices may impact the Brazilian soybean production in 2026/27. The sales pace of new - season soybeans by Argentine farmers has slowed down. China has adjusted the quarantine standard for imported soybeans from Brazil. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report [29][30]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The downstream physical inventory remains high, the trading sentiment has weakened, and the downstream has started to price previous contracts, with slower提货 [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report. - Wednesday: USDA planting intention report, USDA quarterly inventory report. - Thursday: USDA oilseed crushing report, USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product positions [34][36]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures weakened due to the expected recovery of Brazilian shipments and the departure of funds, following the external market and macro - sentiment. The rapeseed meal futures followed the soybean meal. The key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal have reduced long positions, and the bullish sentiment in the soybean meal options has declined. The futures month - spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintains a B - structure, and the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has declined [35][41][47]. - **External Market**: The external market is affected by the Middle East situation, the postponement of the US - China negotiation, and is waiting for the planting area report. The management funds in the CBOT have returned to a bullish position [58][64]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in the US soybean production area has increased, while the profits in the South American production areas of Brazil and Argentina have decreased due to the decline in product prices. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed has slightly increased [70]. 3.4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - For imported soybeans, if the Brazilian shipments recover, the estimated arrivals in April are 8.5 million tons and 10.5 million tons in May. The pressing profit of imported rapeseed from Canada has declined, but the supply is expected to improve [75]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **US**: The USDA March supply - demand report shows that the soybean planting area, harvest area, yield, production, export, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season are the same as in February, with an increase in imports and crushing volume. The market expects an increase in the US soybean planting area in 2026 [96][97]. - **South America**: The USDA March supply - demand report shows that the expected soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season has decreased, while the production and export in Brazil remain unchanged [98]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The arrival pressure of imported soybeans in the second quarter will suppress the price of the main M05 contract. After the tariff reduction between China and Canada, the supply pressure of rapeseed is also expected to return [99]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean supply in the first quarter is still abundant, and the pressing volume is expected to remain high. After the previous high - level inventory replenishment of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent consumption is difficult to increase significantly [102]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the first quarter and start to increase after the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in the second quarter, and the soybean meal inventory will follow [104].