1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates a differentiated trend in the oil and fat market and suggests waiting for opportunities for supply - demand resonance. It provides investment advice on unilateral trading, basis trading, inter - month arbitrage, and cross - variety spread trading for different types of oils [1][2]. - Palm oil is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term bullish; soybean oil is short - term bearish and medium - term neutral; rapeseed oil shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern with a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the futures prices of the three major domestic oils showed differentiation. Palm oil prices were volatile from July to September, affected by Indonesia's policies and Malaysia's inventory and demand. Soybean oil prices were range - bound due to factors like US soybean production and potential biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to supply shortages and inventory depletion [9]. 3.2 Global Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Overview 3.2.1 Global Oilseeds - In the 2025/26 season, global oilseeds are expected to be in a tighter situation. The ending inventory is estimated to be 143.08 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 16.1%, down 0.13 percentage points year - on - year. Demand growth exceeds inventory growth [12][13]. 3.2.2 Global Oils and Fats - The global oil and fat market is becoming increasingly tight, mainly driven by the growing demand for biodiesel. Production is expected to reach 234.69 million tons in 2025/26, up 2.47% year - on - year, while demand is expected to reach 229.28 million tons, up 3.04% [14]. 3.3 Palm Oil Origin Situation 3.3.1 Malaysia - The traditional palm oil production reduction season in Malaysia is approaching in Q4, and there may be an early reduction in September due to abnormal precipitation and floods. Exports in September are expected to increase before the Indian Festival of Lights, and inventory is expected to decline slightly [17][21]. 3.3.2 Indonesia - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase, with cumulative production from January to July reaching 33.496 million tons, up 3.35 million tons year - on - year. Domestic consumption is increasing due to the implementation of B40, and exports have not decreased as expected [25][30]. 3.4 Soybean Origin Situation 3.4.1 Brazil - In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 171.47 million tons, up 13.3% year - on - year. Exports are expected to be 106.65 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The implementation of B15 in 2025 will increase the demand for soybean oil. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in winter 2025, which may affect new - crop yields [35][38]. 3.4.2 United States - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is estimated to be 81.1 million acres, down about 7% year - on - year. As of September 21, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The total production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The new RVO proposed by the EPA will increase the demand for vegetable oils [40][55]. 3.5 Rapeseed Origin Situation 3.5.1 Canada - In the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease by 2.0% year - on - year, but production is expected to increase by 4.1% due to higher yields. Exports have been poor due to China's anti - dumping measures [58][64]. 3.6 Major Consumer Countries' Situation 3.6.1 India - In August 2025, India's imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil reached a peak due to pre - festival stocking. In September, imports decreased slightly but remained at a high level. After the Festival of Lights, consumption will enter a seasonal off - season [69][70]. 3.6.2 China - For palm oil, imports are expected to weaken in Q4, and inventory is expected to remain around 500,000 tons from October to November. For soybean oil, imports are affected by Sino - US trade frictions, and supply is increasing. For rapeseed oil, production is affected by raw material shortages, and inventory is expected to decline rapidly [73][90]. 3.7 Spread Situation 3.7.1 Basis - Palm oil basis is expected to be weak in Q4; soybean oil basis is expected to oscillate weakly; rapeseed oil basis is expected to strengthen [93]. 3.7.2 Inter - month Spread - For the 1 - 5 spread in Q4, palm oil has a positive arbitrage logic, soybean oil has a reverse arbitrage logic, and rapeseed oil has a positive arbitrage logic [100]. 3.7.3 Cross - Variety Spread - In Q4, it is recommended to go long on palm oil or rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [102].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Special Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2605 | 9258 | 9198 | 9212 | 9090 | 9108 | -150 | -1.62% | 44838 | 89682 | 3604 | | P2601 | 9494 | 9408 | 9428 | 9280 | 9304 | -190 | -2.00% | 627749 | 423179 | -12824 | | Y2605 | 8132 | 8090 | 8114 | 8000 | 8022 | -110 | -1.35% | 48401 | 223676 | -982 | | Y2601 | 8422 | 8352 | 8366 | 8262 | 8284 | -138 | -1.64% | -348953 | 574844 | -13601 | | OI2605 | 9572 | 9533 | 9541 | 9462 | - | -0.80% | 14529 | 47029 | 806 | | OI2601 | 10055 | 9991 | 10010 | 9926 | 9984 | - | -0.71% | 266924 | 326231 | -10512 | [7] Basis Price Information - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: September - October: OI2601 + 220; November - December: OI2601 + 230 - East China Grade 1 rapeseed oil: September: OI2601 + 310; October: OI2601 + 330 - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y2601 + 150; October: Y2601 + 160; October - January: Y2601 + 190; February - May: Y2601 + 130; April - July: Y2605 + 200 - East China 24 - degree palm oil liquid oil distribution quote basis: September: P2601 - 50; October: P2601 + 0; October - November: P2601 + 50 [7] Core View - Bullish funds left the market, and the oil and fat market continued to decline. The negative factors mainly came from the external market. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries, but it was not finalized, disappointing the market. Also, the harvest of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseed was approaching, and the harvest pressure and uncertain demand prospects under the trade - war background weighed on the market. Near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly tried to sell at higher prices, leading to a continuous increase in the basis price. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade situation and the supply of rapeseed raw materials. Recently, the oil and fat market faced pressure on the upside but also had support on the downside. Wait for the technical correction to end. In the long - and medium - term, the oil and fat market is bullish due to the favorable biodiesel policy [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the data released by shipping surveyor ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to 724,191 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase from 8,800 tons in the previous month. - According to the data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 15 decreased by 8.05% month - on - month. The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.21% month - on - month. - According to the data released by shipping surveyor SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to 537,183 tons in the same period of August. Exports to China were 34,000 tons, higher than 14,000 tons in the previous month. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][21]

Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues decreased to $42.9 million from $72.6 million year-over-year, primarily due to delayed biodiesel contracts in India [3] - Operating loss was $15.6 million, reflecting a $1.6 million increase in SG&A expenses, mainly from legal and transaction costs related to the sale of investment tax credits [4] - Net loss remained roughly flat at $24.5 million compared to Q1 last year [4] - Cash at the end of the quarter was $500,000 after $15.4 million of debt repayment and $1.8 million invested in carbon intensity reduction and dairy RNG expansion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Dairy RNG business is scaling gas production, expecting to reach 550,000 MMBtu production capacity this year and grow to 1,000,000 MMBtu annually by the end of 2026 [5] - Ethanol plant revenue increased by $1.7 million due to stronger ethanol pricing, with expectations for margin expansion from recent EPA approval of summer E15 blending [4][6] - RNG volumes increased by 17% year-over-year [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) amendments are expected to significantly increase credit prices as supply tightens and demand increases [10] - Aemetis anticipates generating over $60 million annually from LCFS credits once provisional pathways are approved [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is preparing for an IPO of its India subsidiary, targeting late 2025 or early 2026, and evaluating expansion into RNG and ethanol production in India [7] - Aemetis is focused on sustainable aviation fuel projects and has received necessary permits for a 90 million gallon per year facility [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from federal and state policies enhancing the value of low carbon fuel operations [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects multiple revenue streams from India, LCFS credits, and federal tax incentives to ramp up as the year progresses, positioning for a stronger second half of 2025 [5] - The company anticipates significant ramp-up in RNG revenues starting in Q3, driven by LCFS pathway approvals and volume growth [14] - Management expressed optimism regarding ethanol margins supported by policy tailwinds and reduced costs from the NVR project beginning in 2026 [14] Other Important Information - Aemetis received $19 million in cash proceeds from the sale of investment tax credits in Q1 2025 and expects additional sales in 2025 [12] - The company is actively working on marketing production tax credits, which will significantly increase its ability to pay down debt during 2025 and 2026 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on RNG production for 2025 and 2026 - Management indicated that the RNG value chain is primarily domestic, with no direct impact anticipated from tariffs [18] Question: Improvement in the balance sheet and debt outlook for 2025 - Management highlighted the repayment of $15.5 million of debt in Q1 and anticipated continued repayments through the year, supported by increased LCFS revenues and an upcoming IPO [21][22] Question: Dairy RNG OpEx trends - Management expects a dramatic decrease in OpEx per MMBtu as production increases, with current costs affected by startup phases and seasonal factors [28][29] Question: Ethanol segment EBITDA outlook - Management noted that ethanol margins are improving, driven by E15 approval and expected demand increases during the summer [30][32] Question: India business expansion and potential RNG and ethanol opportunities - Management confirmed ongoing exploration of RNG and ethanol opportunities in India, supported by government policies favoring these sectors [39][40] Question: Potential hiccups due to geopolitical issues in India - Management stated that current geopolitical tensions have not impacted their operations or supply chain [42] Question: Opportunities for cheaper debt from EB-5 financing - Management confirmed approval for $200 million in EB-5 financing with net interest costs below 3%, indicating a proactive approach to securing investors [46] Question: Update on 45Z tax credits and emissions rates - Management provided insights on the timing of final rules from Treasury and the potential for increased RNG value based on provisional emissions rates [55][56] Question: Ethanol fundamentals and E15 adoption - Management expressed optimism regarding the impact of E15 adoption in California and the overall positive outlook for ethanol margins [62][64]