以下为金十期货APP独家整理的多家期货公司研报观点，仅供参考铁矿石 交易逻辑："反内卷"政策对市场情绪和价格形成支撑；传闻西芒杜铁矿石项目要求配套建设冶炼厂，叠 加全球发运量环比回落，供应端出现阶段性收紧；港口库存绝对值仍处于去库后的相对低位；钢厂有较 强的复产预期，且国庆节前存在补库需求 风险因素：终端钢材现实需求弱于预期；钢厂利润持续压缩，可能制约铁水产量的进一步回升空间；钢 材库存持续累积，若旺季需求证伪，将形成负反馈；西芒杜项目的长期供应增量预期依然是市场潜在的 利空压力 关注事件：钢厂高炉开工率及铁水日均产量；钢材的表观消费量和库存变化；全球铁矿石发运量和到港 量；中国国内的房地产政策及经济数据等焦煤 关注事件："反内卷"政策的后续落实情况；周度煤矿开工率、原煤库存及焦化厂、钢厂焦煤库存数据； 每日甘其毛都口岸通关车数等碳酸锂 交易逻辑：碳酸锂周度产量继续增加，总体供应非常充裕；社会库存总量绝对值处于历史高位；市场对 远期新产能的投放预期依然存在；宁德时代复产进程可能快于此前预期 风险因素：外采锂辉石和锂云母的冶炼均已进入亏损状态；正极材料排产环比、同比均有所增长；下游 企业在低价区间补库意愿增强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].