Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall situation of the beans and oils market in the short - term is weak, with the prices of various varieties showing a trend of weak shocks. The beans market is under the pressure of weak reality and policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces. The palm oil market also lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The export prospects of US soybeans are weak, and the crop weather in Brazil is ideal. The USDA report is neutral to bearish, putting pressure on US soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans is abundant, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is at a high level in the same period, restricting the rise of spot prices. The rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to policy - related factors. Overall, the beans market is under continuous pressure of weak reality, and there is policy uncertainty, lacking upward driving forces [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: Oscillating; Medium - term: Oscillating; Intraday: Oscillating weakly; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Indonesia confirmed that it will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026, maintaining B40, which weakens the previous market expectations and causes the price to correct from the high level, but the decline is limited. Indonesia will raise the export tax on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March next year, which may support the export of Malaysian palm oil. The market's focus has shifted to the US biodiesel policy. In the short - term, palm oil lacks a one - sided driving force and continues to fluctuate [7]. 3.3 Other Varieties - **Soybean Oil 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the cost support of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2605**: Short - term, medium - term and intraday views are all oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Group 1 - Indonesia may increase palm oil export tax due to funding constraints to support its biodiesel program [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to its highest level in nearly seven years, reaching 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November [1] - As of January 9, palm oil spot price was reported at 8,710 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 43.33 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The domestic spot market for palm oil is experiencing weak basis transactions and general terminal demand [3] - There is a fundamental pressure from high inventory and weak exports, while international crude oil remains strong, leading to a mixed outlook for palm oil prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Limited drivers from production areas, continue to hold reverse spreads [1] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation, pay attention to China-US economic and trade relations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,322 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%, closing price (night session) was 9,322 yuan/ton with no change; trading volume was 448,936 hands with a decrease of 77,751 hands, and open interest was 353,041 hands with an increase of 2,263 hands [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,252 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%, closing price (night session) was 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22%; trading volume was 206,030 hands with a decrease of 52,905 hands, and open interest was 497,389 hands with an increase of 3,429 hands [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,932 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 9,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%; trading volume was 203,023 hands with a decrease of 19,449 hands, and open interest was 296,642 hands with a decrease of 3,196 hands [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,474 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.31%, closing price (night session) was 4,480 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.07% [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 50.83 cents/pound with an increase of 0.51% [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 9,200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - Grade 1 soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,590 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - Grade 4 imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,105 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [2] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was -122 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 338 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 218 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed oil - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread was 610 yuan/ton, compared with 629 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Soybean oil - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread was -1,070 yuan/ton, compared with -1,090 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread was 84 yuan/ton, compared with 108 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread was 202 yuan/ton, compared with 222 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread was 428 yuan/ton, compared with 495 yuan/ton two days ago [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - According to shipping survey agency ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 862,724 tons, a 16.2% increase compared to the same period last month [3] - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from the current 10% to 15% to fund the transition from the B40 to the B50 biodiesel program. The tax increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [4][5] - Brazil's Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) expects Brazil's soybean production this year to be 165.866 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to last year's 144.947 million tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [6]

Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Researcher Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - East China's third-grade rapeseed oil: Spot price is OI2601 + 270, and from October to November it is OI2601 + 280. East China's first-grade rapeseed oil in October is OI2601 + 390. East China market's first-grade soybean oil basis prices vary by months. Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes are temporarily stable [7]. Core View - In the short term, the palm oil market may face technical adjustments due to a rapid price increase, with potential profit - taking and reduced buying demand, leading to a callback risk. The same situation applies to soybean oil and rapeseed oil. In the long term, Indonesia's plan to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026 may tighten palm oil supply and support prices. The oil and fat sector is dominated by long - position funds, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and roll long positions [8]. 2. Industry News - In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; imports were 78,400 tons, a 33.95% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.4276 million tons, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; and the end - of - month inventory was 2.361 million tons, a 7.2% month - on - month increase [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including spot prices and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as exchange rate charts [13][14][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026 will significantly increase palm oil consumption and support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 342 yuan or 3.71% from the previous day; the soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8,332 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan or 2.36%; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract closed at 10,248 yuan/ton, up 204 yuan or 2.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan or 4.07%, with a spot basis of P01 + -120 yuan, up 28 yuan. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 188 yuan, up 38 yuan. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan or 2.14%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 252 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Import Prices**: Argentina's soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,114 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous day; (January shipment) was 1,107 dollars/ton, down 17 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,095 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 1,075 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was 510 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 520 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton. US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (November shipment) was 438 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton [2] - **Import Premiums**: Mexican Gulf (November shipment) soybean import premium was 220 cents/bushel, down 12 cents/bushel; US West Coast (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the 2024/25 market year, China's edible vegetable oil production was 3,144 million tons. Due to increased production, the import volume of edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 was reduced by 500,000 tons to 7.06 million tons, with palm oil and sunflower oil imports reduced by 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively. The average ex - factory prices of national standard third - grade soybean oil, third - grade rapeseed oil, and first - grade peanut oil in 2024/25 were 8,089 yuan/ton, 9,585 yuan/ton, and 14,635 yuan/ton respectively, all within the estimated range. There were no adjustments to the supply - demand forecast data for China's edible vegetable oil in 2025/26 [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong among varieties due to the early B50 road test. - Soybean oil is likely to fluctuate with US soybeans and is difficult to reach new highs [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Palm oil: The daytime closing price was 9,570 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 3.71%, and the night - session closing price was 9,596 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. Trading volume was 509,596 lots, up 110,994 lots, and open interest was 379,054 lots, up 46,907 lots [2]. - Soybean oil: The daytime closing price was 8,332 yuan/ton with a 2.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,374 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase. Trading volume was 336,990 lots, up 136,756 lots, and open interest was 506,255 lots, down 8,109 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The daytime closing price was 10,248 yuan/ton with a 2.03% increase, and the night - session closing price was 10,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.50% decrease. Trading volume was 209,869 lots, up 28,319 lots, and open interest was 329,150 lots, up 25,710 lots [2]. - Malaysian palm oil: The closing price was 4,594 ringgit/ton with a 1.06% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,595 ringgit/ton with a 0.09% increase [2]. - CBOT soybean oil: The closing price was 50.97 cents/pound with a - 0.99% decrease [2]. - **Spot Data** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: The spot price was 1,120 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars/ton [2]. - **Basis Data** - Palm oil (Guangdong): The basis was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): The basis was 348 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The basis was 202 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread Data** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: The previous trading day's spread was 678 yuan/ton, compared with 816 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: The previous trading day's spread was - 1,238 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,088 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 210 yuan/ton, compared with 192 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 258 yuan/ton, compared with 244 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 519 yuan/ton, compared with 523 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia will implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program starting in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports [3]. - The B50 biodiesel program in Indonesia in 2026 will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - Palm oil: B50 road testing is advanced, and it shows relatively strong performance among varieties [2][4]. - Soybean oil: With the U.S. soybeans oscillating, it's difficult for soybean oil to reach new highs [2][4]. - Soybean meal: It is in an oscillating state [2][12]. - Soybean: It is in an oscillating state [2][11]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the listing of new grains [2][14]. - Sugar: It is on an oscillating upward trend [2][17]. - Cotton: The transaction price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized [2][21]. - Eggs: The spot market is operating weakly [2][25]. - Hogs: The spot bottom has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [2][27]. - Peanuts: Supply pressure still exists [2][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,570 yuan/ton with a 3.71% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,596 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,332 yuan/ton with a 2.36% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,374 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia will implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports and generate an additional 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil demand [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511's day - session closing price was 3,975 yuan/ton with a 1.17% increase, and night - session closing price was 3,960 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session closing price was 2,939 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,929 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 9, CBOT soybeans fell due to long - position profit - taking, active technical selling, and increased concerns about Sino - U.S. trade. The U.S. Department of Agriculture postponed the release of the monthly supply - demand report, and the details of the 10 - 15 billion U.S. dollars farmer assistance plan are yet to be announced. A weak La Nina weather pattern is emerging, increasing the drought risk in major producing areas [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Jinzhou's closing position was 2,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; C2511's day - session closing price was 2,138 yuan/ton with a 0.42% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,133 yuan/ton with a 0.23% decrease [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: During the National Day holiday, the price of Northeast corn declined. The price in North Ports slightly increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton on October 6. The price in North China fluctuated with an overall downward trend [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.07 cents/pound; the mainstream spot price was 5,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the futures main - contract price was 5,528 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Typhoon "Maideme" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in the Guangxi production area. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,295 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase, and night - session closing price was 13,380 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase; ICE cotton 12 was 64.46 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.74% [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The procurement intention of textile enterprises for cotton spot is general. The acquisition price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized. The ICE cotton futures fell due to lack of fundamental support, weak technical indicators, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and falling crude oil prices [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,650 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 8.97; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,246 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 3.19 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of - 1 [25]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton; the futures price of Hog 2511 was 11,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [29]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; PK510's closing price was 7,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.75% [31]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In the Henan Baisha peanut - producing area, trading has basically stopped. In the Jilin and Liaoning peanut - producing areas, the price is stable or slightly weak, and the supply is increasing. In Shandong, the supply is affected by rainy weather [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [33].

Report Overview - No industry investment rating is provided [1] - The core view of the report is to present overnight market information, price data, and some forecasts in the oilseeds and fats industry [1] Overnight Market Information - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan will generate an additional demand of 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil [1] - As of the week ending October 2, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 60 - 1.6 million tons, the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 15 - 35 thousand tons, and the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0 - 25 thousand tons [1] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's biodiesel demand will increase by 6.3% in 2026 to 10.5 billion liters, and the consumption of soybean oil, the main raw material for biodiesel production, will increase by 6.3% to 8.4 million tons [1] Price Data - The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 25 to October 9, 2025 [2] Other Information - The report also mentions the precipitation in major producing countries, the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, the import profit of oils, the protein meal basis, the oils basis, and the price spread of oils and oilseeds, but no specific data is provided [1][3][5][7]

Iron Ore - The "anti-involution" policy supports market sentiment and prices; rumors suggest the West Mandeau iron ore project requires a matching smelting plant, coupled with a global shipping volume decline, leading to a temporary tightening of supply; port inventory remains relatively low after destocking; steel mills have strong expectations for resumption of production and pre-holiday restocking demand [1] - Key events to monitor include steel mill blast furnace operating rates, daily pig iron production, apparent steel consumption and inventory changes, global iron ore shipping and arrival volumes, and domestic real estate policies and economic data in China [1] Coking Coal - Increased occurrences of auction failures or discounted transactions for Shanxi coking coal; the number of trucks crossing from Mongolia has returned to high levels; the first round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, with a second round expected; steel mill profits are narrowing, leading to demand-driven procurement of raw materials [1] - Key events to monitor include the implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, weekly coal mine operating rates, raw coal inventory, and coking plant and steel mill coking coal inventory data [1] Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production continues to increase, with overall supply being very ample; social inventory is at a historical high; market expectations for future new capacity remain; CATL's resumption of production may be faster than previously anticipated [1] - Key events to monitor include whether CATL can resume production as scheduled in November, the production plans for cathode materials, and changes in weekly lithium carbonate production and inventory [1] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs remains excessive, with abundant output; spot prices continue to weaken, reaching new lows for the year; the downstream slaughter sector has limited capacity to purchase at high prices [1] - Key events to monitor include the pig production capacity regulation meeting on September 16, the actual capacity reduction execution of major enterprises, and data on the breeding sow inventory and live pig slaughter weights [1] Crude Oil - In August, OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels per day; U.S. crude oil production remains at a historical high of 13.495 million barrels per day; the North American summer driving season has ended; global crude oil inventory continues to trend upwards [1] - Key events to monitor include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, the EU's final plan for the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and whether OPEC+ will take emergency production cuts due to falling oil prices [1] Shipping Industry - The SCFI for European routes has decreased; major shipping companies have seen a decline in average container prices by the end of September; the Eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index fell short of expectations, with a weakening macroeconomic environment suppressing trade demand; ongoing pressure from new ship deliveries continues to pose a risk of oversupply in the medium to long term [1][2] - Key events to monitor include weekly opening quotes from leading shipping companies like Maersk, weekly changes in SCFIS and SCFI indices, and the impact of European economic data and geopolitical situations on demand [2] Palm Oil - Palm oil inventory reached its widest level since 2020 in August, with further increases expected in September; the White House's request for small refineries to be exempt from biofuel blending obligations is lower than industry expectations; Indonesia is considering implementing a B45 biodiesel plan before advancing to B50 [2] - Key events to monitor include high-frequency data from Malaysia's SPPOMA, ITS, SGS, and AmSpec, the strength of stocking demand ahead of India's Diwali festival, and the final ruling on the U.S. biodiesel policy (RFS) and EPA blending obligations [2] Precious Metals - Strong expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising; geopolitical events, such as attacks in Doha, have increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven; central banks continue to purchase gold, and investment demand for silver is growing [2] - Key events to monitor include the Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting, U.S. CPI and PCE data, initial jobless claims, non-farm payroll reports, and potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].