科创债市场跟踪与交易策略

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国泰海通|固收:科创债择券顺势而为——科创债市场跟踪与交易策略展望
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-01 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (科创债) since May, highlighting the potential for a corresponding ETF and the benefits of expanding the sample of bonds included in the index [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance and Market Dynamics - From May 7 to June 24, a total of 372 science and technology innovation bonds were issued, amounting to a total issuance scale of 577.67 billion yuan, with 382.23 billion yuan from the interbank market and 195.45 billion yuan from exchanges [1]. - The new issuances are primarily from central state-owned enterprises, with longer maturities and an increase in financial institution issuances [1]. - Five private venture capital institutions have successfully issued science and technology innovation bonds, totaling 1.35 billion yuan, with longer maturities concentrated in the 5-10 year range and flexible redemption terms [1]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Valuation - The newly issued science and technology innovation bonds generally have lower coupon rates, with approximately 72.54% of them being issued at lower valuations compared to similar non-innovation bonds with a remaining maturity of less than one year [2]. - The yield and spread of science and technology innovation bonds show significant differences based on the issuer type, including banks, brokerages, and other industry entities [2]. Group 3: ETF Development and Market Strategy - The science and technology innovation bond ETF is being concentrated in high-grade bonds, with the CSI and SSE AAA bond indices having durations close to 4 years and sample sizes of 1,033.5 billion yuan and 894.6 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - The article suggests that bonds included in both the science and technology innovation bond index and the credit bond benchmark index may experience similar market rotation characteristics, benefiting from the expansion of credit bond ETFs and the issuance of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [3]. - Non-sample science and technology innovation bonds are also expected to benefit from ETF expansion opportunities, particularly those from larger issuers that are not included in the index [3].