首先是"资金流入牛"。宏观背景方面，具备资金回流到A股和港股的条件。从市场运行逻辑来看，中国 证监会也鼓励中长期资金入市，当前，以社保和保险公司的资金为代表的长期资金逐渐提高入市比例。 从居民资产配置角度来看，居民正在从实物资产配置逐渐向金融资产配置转变。上述三点印证中国资金 流入是长期的逻辑，且刚刚开始，因此"资金流入牛"注定会促进A股和港股明年仍然是慢牛的格局。 其次是"科技创新牛"。近几年可以看到中国的科技创新不断进步，产业升级也有非常清晰的思路，因此 科技创新和产业升级这只"牛"也是个长期的逻辑。 北京商报讯（记者 李海媛）11月11日，中信建投证券2026年资本市场峰会在北京召开。中信建投证券 首席经济学家黄文涛进行主旨演讲并提到，"新四牛"概念不仅适合短期，从长期来看，逻辑也未有变 化。 三是"制度改革牛"。在新"国九条"的指引之下，以中国证监会为代表的监管机构出台了一系列政策，这 些政策基本及时有效且正面地回应了投资者对资本市场的关心。例如，当前中国资本市场里上市公司的 分红、回购加上增持的数量已超过IPO的规模。中国资本市场真正体现了人民性，从过去所谓的"融资 市"变成了"投资市"，赚钱效应也 ...

Core Insights - The AI and computing power sectors are showing resilience, with the AI-focused ChiNext index outperforming similar AI theme indices, driven by strong performance in optical modules and computing power stocks [1][4] - The demand for computing power, described as the "oil fuel" of the AI era, is experiencing exponential growth, with the global AI server market projected to reach $125.1 billion in 2024 and $222.7 billion by 2028 [3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 19, the ChiNext AI index saw a successful recovery, with stocks like Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang leading gains [1] - The largest and most liquid ChiNext AI ETF (159363) experienced significant trading activity, with a daily turnover of 1.2 billion yuan, indicating strong market sentiment [1][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The optical module industry is in a golden development phase driven by AI computing power, with a shift in focus from demand existence to delivery capability [4] - The competitive landscape is favoring leading optical module companies due to their technological innovation, rapid production capabilities, and strong quality assurance systems [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trajectory, contingent on the realization of liquidity, fundamental improvements, and the transition of old and new growth drivers over the next year [3] - The gap in AI model capabilities between China and the U.S. has significantly narrowed, indicating a competitive landscape that may further drive demand for AI-related technologies [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volume contraction and consolidation on September 19, with a focus on opportunities in the fintech sector as funds showed interest during declines [1] - The China Securities Financial Technology Theme Index fell over 1% during the day, with several constituent stocks declining, including Hengbao Co., which dropped over 5% [1] - Conversely, stocks like Electric Science Digital and Xin'an Century saw gains of over 2% [1] ETF Performance - The fintech ETF (159851), which has a scale exceeding 10 billion, saw a drop of over 1% during trading, with real-time transactions amounting to 500 million yuan, reflecting a slight decrease in volume [1] - Despite the drop, the fintech ETF received a net subscription of over 100 million units, accumulating nearly 900 million yuan in inflows over the previous three days [1] Investment Sentiment - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting potential upside of 8% and 3% respectively over the next 12 months, and recommends investors to buy on dips, focusing on themes like "Top Ten Private Enterprises in China," AI, and shareholder returns [2][3] - The current market conditions are favorable for an upward trend, supported by liquidity and fundamental factors, with expected earnings growth in major indices remaining in the mid-to-high single digits [3] Liquidity and Capital Flow - There is a net inflow of global capital into the A-share market, with household savings increasingly moving into capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [3] - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance global liquidity, benefiting the A-share technology growth sector [3] Fintech Sector Dynamics - The fintech sector is highlighted as having significant elasticity and is expected to benefit from improved liquidity, with internet brokerage fundamentals anticipated to continue improving [4] - The sector is also experiencing a "technology innovation bull market," with AI, cross-border payments, and big data emerging as new growth points for fintech companies [5] - The fintech ETF (159851) has a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 1.4 billion yuan in the past month, indicating strong liquidity and market interest [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector in A-shares experienced a significant decline, with major stocks dropping over 3%, indicating market volatility and investor concern [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The financial technology sector saw a drop of over 3%, with stocks like Dazhihui falling by 8.83% and others like Yinzhijie and Zhinanceng also declining by over 8% [1] - The financial technology ETF (159851) experienced a 3.4% drop, closing below two moving averages, with a total trading volume of 1.683 billion yuan [1] - Despite the drop, the ETF saw a net subscription of 277 million units in a single day, accumulating over 600 million yuan in the previous two days [1] Group 2: Investment Drivers - The "liquidity bull market" is evident, with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 82 consecutive trading days and 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive days [3] - Continuous inflow of foreign and long-term institutional funds into the market, alongside a trend of domestic savings moving into equities, supports the financial technology sector [3] - The anticipated benefits from global interest rate cuts are expected to further enhance liquidity, positively impacting the A-share technology growth sector [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The financial IT sector is projected to experience strong growth by H1 2025, driven by the deepening of financial power policies and the integration of AI technologies [4] - Increased investment in technology by financial institutions and the emergence of AI models in financial scenarios are expected to benefit leading financial IT firms [4] - The financial technology market is entering an upward trajectory, supported by policy initiatives and the ongoing digital transformation of brokerage firms [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on the financial technology ETF (159851) and its associated funds, which cover a wide range of themes including internet brokerage, financial IT, cross-border payments, and AI applications [4] - As of September 17, the financial technology ETF (159851) has a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 1.4 billion yuan in the past month, indicating strong liquidity [4]