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2024年四季度及全年全球黄金需求趋势报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 02:00
Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, global gold demand reached a record high of 4,974 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with total consumption value exceeding $382 billion [1][10] - The average annual gold price rose to $2,386 per ounce, marking a 23% increase from 2023, the largest increase in nearly a decade [1][10] - Gold supply increased by 1% year-on-year, with gold mine production estimated to grow by 1%, while recycling supply surged by 11% [1][10] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Jewelry and investment demand exhibited a contrasting trend; global jewelry consumption fell to a historic low of 1,877 tons, down 11% year-on-year, but the consumption value increased by 9% to $144 billion [2][25] - Investment demand was the primary driver, with total investment volume rising to 1,180 tons, a 25% increase year-on-year [2][48] - Central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, with a net purchase of 1,045 tons in 2024, primarily from emerging market central banks [2][12] Group 3: Regional Insights - In China, jewelry demand declined by 24% to 479 tons due to economic slowdown and high gold prices, while India showed resilience with only a 2% decline in demand [25][33] - The Middle East and Turkey saw a rebound in demand in Q4, with an 18% quarter-on-quarter increase due to price corrections [2][35] - The U.S. experienced a continuous decline in jewelry demand for 11 consecutive quarters, reaching a five-year low, while European demand also fell to the lowest level since 2020 [39][40] Group 4: Future Outlook - The demand for gold in the technology sector is expected to grow by 7% to 326 tons in 2024, driven by the demand for AI hardware and 5G devices [3][12] - Investment demand is anticipated to remain strong in 2025, supported by central bank interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [3][12] - Jewelry consumption may face pressure from high gold prices, but the wedding season in India and recovery in emerging markets could provide some support [3][20]