Core Viewpoints - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics [2][4][41] Consumption - In April, the growth rate of social retail sales fell to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in retail sales of goods above a certain threshold [10][64] - The slowdown in the "old-for-new" policy has negatively impacted consumption, particularly in sectors like automobiles and communication equipment, while essential consumption remains stable, especially in food and pharmaceuticals [2][10] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed weakness, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0% in April, and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6% [2][16] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment renewal cycle, affecting manufacturing and public utility investments [2][16][52] - Service sector investment remains resilient, with a notable rebound in cultural and entertainment investments [3][23] Real Estate - Supply-side issues in real estate are improving, but the release of pent-up demand is entering a "decline phase" [3][26] - The construction completion rate has significantly dropped, leading to a stabilization in housing prices, while real estate investment continues to decline [3][26][61] Industrial Production - Industrial production has seen a decline, with the industrial added value in April at 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March [5][36] - Manufacturing production has also decreased, particularly in sectors related to real estate and consumer goods [36][42] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1% in April, indicating improved employment pressure for both local and migrant populations [71]

Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in retail sales of above-limit goods, which fell by 2.0 percentage points to 6.6%[2] - The growth rate of essential consumption remains stable, with grain and oil food maintaining a high growth rate of 14.0%[2] - The sales growth of automobiles and communication equipment saw significant declines, with automobiles down 4.8% to 0.7% and communication equipment down 8.7% to 19.9%[2] Investment - Fixed asset investment in April showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6%[3] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment update cycle, with equipment purchases down 3.1 percentage points to 16.7%[3] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 8.1%, while public utility investment growth fell by 2.2 percentage points to 24.3%[3] Real Estate - Real estate development investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.3%, worsening from a previous decline of 9.9%[4] - The supply side is improving, with the growth rate of residential construction falling by 25.8%, leading to a marginal stabilization of housing prices[4] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8%, indicating a phase of reduced release of pent-up demand[4] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in April showed a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March[5] - Manufacturing production saw a marginal decline of 0.8 percentage points to 7.1%, with significant drops in sectors like mining and public utilities[5] - The production of automobiles and computer communications also experienced notable declines, each down 2.3 percentage points[5] Summary - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, with a need to closely monitor incremental policy developments[4] - Short-term economic performance is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, influenced by export dynamics and the effectiveness of new policies to mitigate external demand risks[4]