Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

美国劳工部将于今晚八点半（因7月4日假期提前一天）公布最新非农数据，市场预计六月将新增11万个 岗位，低于五月最初的13.9万个；失业率或上升0.1个百分点至4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高。 Lightcast高级劳工经济学家罗恩·赫特里克（Ron Hetrick）向外媒表示，就业增长乏力并非需求不足，而 是关税不确定性令企业暂停招聘。他警告，若这种招聘的迟疑情绪持续，将自我强化，令劳动力市场与 整体经济更易受冲击。 NerdWallet高级经济学家伊丽莎白·伦特（Elizabeth Renter）亦提醒投资者，关税、联邦削减和移民政策 的全面影响需数月甚至数年才能显现，一旦就业疲弱持续，其破坏力将进一步扩大。 传统失业率指标也越来越难以反映真实状况。赫特里克指出，失业率保持低位部分缘于劳动参与率下降 ——更多人退出劳动力市场。 "若失业率下降仅因劳动力萎缩，那并非健康表现，而是一道数学题。" 特朗普总统第二任期的前六个月，他推出了大范围关税、强化移民驱逐、削减联邦开支并裁减政府部门 员工，这些举措或将重塑美国经济与全球格局。虽然还需要一定时间才能在数据中全面显现，但其间接 影响已现端倪。 周三公布的" ...