文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生（18482259975） 报告摘要 2025年12月份非农数据简述 1、新增非农低于预期，前两个月数据明显下修 。新增非农就业5万，预期7万。私人部门新增非农就 业3.7万，预期7.5万。10-11月新增就业合计下修7.6万。就业增长集中在教育保健服务（+4.1万，前 值+5.9万）、休闲酒店（+4.7万，前值-0.3万）。零售、建筑、制造业、专业和商业服务等行业就业 萎缩。 2、失业率意外回落， 录得4.4%（4.375%），预期4.5%，前值4.5%（4.536%）。劳动参与率从 62.46%降至62.40%，预期62.4%。失业率下行主要源于就业增长和供给小幅收缩，前者影响约0.14 个百分点，后者影响约0.03个百分点。 3、时薪增速符合预期 ，但周工时下滑。私人行业时薪环比0.3%，预期0.3%，同比增速3.8%，预期 3.6%。周工时从34.3小时降至34.2小时，仍处于2015年以来的低位水平。周薪环比持平，并未增长 （时薪是周薪和周工时的倒算值）。 4、市场降息预期有所降温 。期货市场定价今年降息次数 ...

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the latest non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 110,000 new jobs in June, a decrease from the initially reported 139,000 in May, and an anticipated unemployment rate increase of 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The recent ADP report indicates a net decrease of approximately 33,000 private sector jobs in June, contrasting with market expectations of a net increase of 115,000 jobs, highlighting a trend of hiring stagnation [1][2] - Economic experts suggest that the weak job growth is not due to a lack of demand but rather uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which has led companies to pause hiring [2][3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate may appear optimistic due to a shrinking labor force, with foreign labor accounting for a significant portion of labor force growth since February 2020 [3] - Other indicators show that hiring activity is at a ten-year low, with layoffs still occurring in both federal and private sectors, despite a slight decrease in layoff announcements compared to last year [3] - Multiple headwinds, including higher interest rates, slowed immigration, and federal budget cuts, are contributing to the deceleration of job growth, which may further weaken market resilience before the full impact of tariffs is felt [3]