新华财经上海8月7日电（葛佳明） 美国总统特朗普日前接受媒体采访时表示，他将在本周末前确定一 名候选人来填补即将出现的美联储理事空缺席位，并将可能接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人选缩小至四人。 尽管外汇市场已部分计价了特朗普将提名一位更为"鸽派"的美联储主席，但美联储主席"换届大戏"提前 拉开序幕，成为诱发美元走弱的新一轮催化因素。市场对美联储将于9月降息的预期明显上升，美元指 数持续承压，徘徊在98关口。 由于这三位热门候选人均倾向于支持美联储降息，本周市场押注美联储在9月及今年年内降息的概率大 幅攀升。 在朱冠华看来，如果未来美国财政货币双双转向大幅宽松，美国经济或许无法避免陷入再通胀的局 面。"美联储降息带来的输入型通胀、扩表带来的资产端通胀、关税政策带来的通胀压力，均将成为后 续通胀攀升的推手。" "库格勒的提前辞任也带来了美联储理事会名额的空缺，对此特朗普表示将在近期提名一位候选人进行 任命。"朱冠华表示，库格勒的辞职为特朗普安排一位其心仪的美联储主席候选人提前进入美联储提供 了机会。 从美元中长期走势看，美国经济基本面仍是重要影响因素。海通期货研究所总经理助理顾佳男对新华财 经表示，美联储主席人选更替更偏 ...

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]