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第一创业晨会纪要-20250605
Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for May is 48.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] - The output index for May is 45.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, while new orders are at 47.6%, up 0.4 percentage points [4] - The non-manufacturing PMI for May is 49.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, marking the first contraction since July 2024 [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - European automotive parts factories have paused production due to China's restrictions on key mineral exports, with Mercedes-Benz considering inventory strategies to mitigate supply risks [7] - US automakers are contemplating relocating some parts production to China to avoid imminent factory shutdowns, indicating a strengthened control over rare earth materials in China [7] - Indonesia is evaluating the purchase of Chinese J-10 fighter jets, which could enhance the domestic military industry’s outlook and valuation [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The average price of electrolytic nickel in May is 124,683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,012 yuan/ton from April, indicating a weak market with high inventory pressures [10] - The lithium battery supply chain is in a destocking phase, with potential for a market upturn around 2026 due to low inventory and high demand [10] - CATL's research highlights a significant breakthrough in lithium metal batteries, improving cycle life to 483 cycles and energy density potential exceeding 500 Wh/kg, which could create structural opportunities in the market [11]