新华财经北京11月27日电（崔凯）英国财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）于当地时间周三在下 议院正式公布2025年秋季预算案。同日，英国预算责任办公室（Office for Budget Responsibility, OBR） 发布最新《经济与财政展望》报告，确认政府财政缓冲空间将从2025年3月预测的99亿英镑大幅提升至 217亿英镑。 根据OBR测算，该预算案所列政策将在2029/30财年带来约261亿英镑的额外税收收入。另有资料显示， 整体增税规模达298亿英镑，主要通过对博彩业、高端房地产及投资收入等领域进行调整实现。OBR指 出，未来五年计划削减的借贷规模中，约四分之三将通过增税完成；若趋势延续，2030/31财年税收占 GDP比重将达到38%，创历史新高。 原定于财政大臣演讲结束后发布的OBR报告，因技术故障提前数小时以未加密链接形式在其官网公 开，随后被紧急撤回。OBR就此致歉并宣布启动内部调查。里夫斯称此事件为"严重错误"，强调其破坏 了预算程序的完整性。 多项结构性增税措施落地 预算案维持"不提高所得税、增值税和国民保险主税率"的承诺，但通过延长冻结期限等方式变相扩大税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed tax reform in Australia involves increasing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 10% to 15% while providing a cash subsidy of AUD 3,300 to every adult citizen, aiming to redistribute wealth and improve economic efficiency [3][4][7]. Group 1: Tax Reform Details - The GST increase will expand the tax base to include previously exempt items such as food, education, and healthcare [3][4]. - The annual cash subsidy of AUD 3,300 is designed to offset the increased tax burden for individuals with taxable consumption below AUD 22,000 [4][8]. - The reform is expected to generate significant revenue for the government, with an estimated AUD 92.5 billion in additional GST revenue in the first year [14]. Group 2: Impact on Different Income Groups - Low-income individuals (bottom 60% of earners) are projected to benefit from the reform, as their subsidy will exceed the additional GST costs incurred [5][6][8]. - Middle-income earners may experience a mixed impact, depending on their consumption patterns, with some potentially facing higher costs due to increased GST [10][11]. - High-income earners (top 20% of earners) are expected to incur significant losses, with an average annual loss exceeding AUD 2,200, as the subsidy will not cover their increased tax burden [12][14]. Group 3: Government Financial Implications - The net fiscal benefit from the reform is projected to be around AUD 23.7 billion annually after accounting for the subsidy costs [14]. - The additional revenue could allow the government to reduce personal income tax rates and increase funding for essential public services such as healthcare and education [16][17]. - The reform aims to address the inefficiencies of the current tax system, which heavily relies on personal income tax, and shift towards a more efficient consumption tax model [19][21]. Group 4: Political and Economic Challenges - The proposal faces significant political hurdles, with the current government showing reluctance to increase GST, fearing backlash from states that rely on GST revenue for essential services [22][25]. - Concerns about inflation and the immediate impact on consumer prices are prevalent, raising questions about the adequacy of the cash subsidy to mitigate these effects [25][30]. - The upcoming productivity roundtable is seen as a critical opportunity for discussion and potential advancement of the tax reform agenda [27][30].