当前节点推荐旅游板块 近期，埋伏春节的资金兑现、科技周期板块的虹吸导致旅游板块持续走低。 26年重点关注服务消费板块。 #政策端：中央经济工作会议将"内需主导、扩消费"列为 2026 年经济工作首要任务；国办1月印发《加快培育服务 消费新增长点工作方案》，明确服务消费是扩内需核心抓手，两会是政策落地与细化的关键窗口。 #基本面上，2025Q4至今服务消费增速持续跑赢商品消费；春节出行数据亮眼，酒旅航空量价齐升，复苏确定性 高。 此外，#2026年预计是春秋假政策规模化执行之年，目前已经有四川+浙江+吉林+江苏+安徽全省执行，及多省市 试点执行。 陕西旅游、三峡旅游、九华旅游等优质旅游股自高点后跌幅分别为16%、16%、12%。 参考去年9月19日国庆前后板块调整幅度，已经较为接近（三峡、九华距离去年9.19高点涨幅已收窄至13%、- 1%），当前节点，两会临近+4月后清明、春假、五一密集假期节点，我们认为可以逐渐布局。 当前节点推荐旅游板块 近期，埋伏春节的资金兑现、科技周期板块的虹吸导致旅游板块持续走低。 陕西旅游、三峡旅游、九华旅游等优质旅游股自高点后跌幅分别为16%、16%、12%。 参考去年9月19日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have issued an implementation opinion on promoting the high - quality development of low - altitude insurance. By 2027, a preliminary mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicle liability will be established, and by 2030, the policy framework for low - altitude insurance will basically take shape [1]. - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce have organized a "Film +" consumption comprehensive pilot program to boost consumption and promote the transformation of the film industry into a diversified consumption ecosystem [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Level Upstream - Black commodities are at low prices [1]. - Egg prices have declined [1]. - Building material prices have dropped [1]. Midstream - The operating rates of PX and urea remain high [2]. - The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - The production of pork products has increased [2]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - The number of domestic flights has remained high and stable [2]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value (as of 2/9) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2271.4 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.1 yuan/kg | - 12.96% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8972.0 yuan/ton | - 0.47% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15986.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.3 yuan/kg | - 0.76% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 101646.7 yuan/ton | 0.79% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24656.0 yuan/ton | - 1.26% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23406.7 yuan/ton | 1.90% | | | Spot price of nickel | 138650.0 yuan/ton | - 0.20% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16506.3 yuan/ton | 0.08% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3170.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 786.9 yuan/ton | - 2.25% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3367.5 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.3 yuan/square meter | 0.15% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16125.0 yuan/ton | 0.62% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 786.7 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | - 2.55% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 68.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.83% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Coal price | 799.0 yuan/ton | - 0.50% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5144.3 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6800.0 yuan/ton | - 3.20% | | | Spot price of urea | 1765.0 yuan/ton | - 0.70% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1201.4 yuan/ton | - 0.12% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 131.7 | - 0.79% | | | Building materials composite index | | - 0.43% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | - 0.42% | [36]

Group 1 - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 50 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 50.1 trillion yuan with a growth of 3.7% [2][4] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth increased to 52%, up by 5 percentage points [4] - The sales of products related to the "trade-in" program amounted to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [4] Group 2 - The total import and export of goods reached 45.47 trillion yuan, growing by 3.8% [6] - The number of enterprises with import and export records exceeded 780,000, with private enterprises accounting for 57.3% of total foreign trade [6] - The number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises exceeded 70,000, marking a growth of 19.1% [6] Group 3 - China signed 24 free trade agreements with 31 countries and regions, with free trade partners accounting for 45% of total goods trade [8] - The new signed contracts for foreign engineering contracting reached 2.1 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "Two New" policy aims to enhance equipment updates and promote the replacement of consumer goods, addressing key social issues and supporting economic development through targeted subsidies and optimized implementation mechanisms [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The 2026 "Two New" policy expands the support scope to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas, equipment updates in elderly care institutions, and updates for commercial facilities like shopping centers and supermarkets [2][4]. - The policy continues to support the replacement of old vehicles and household appliances, including cars, washing machines, refrigerators, and extends subsidies to digital and smart products such as smartphones and smart home devices [2][3]. Group 2: Subsidy Standards - The subsidy standards for equipment updates have been optimized, with a shift to differentiated subsidies based on the number of floors for old residential elevators, potentially easing financial burdens for high-rise buildings [4]. - For automotive subsidies, the policy adjusts from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, with specific rates for new energy vehicles and fuel-efficient cars, ensuring better alignment with consumer needs [5][6]. Group 3: Implementation Mechanisms - The policy introduces an optimized project application and review process, lowering the investment threshold for project applications and increasing support for small and medium-sized enterprises [7]. - A unified subsidy standard will be implemented nationwide for various categories, addressing discrepancies in local subsidy standards and ensuring that more consumers benefit from the policy [7].

Core Insights - The Chinese government has introduced a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, with a focus on high-quality development by 2030 [1] Group 1: Development Goals - By 2027, China aims to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1] - By 2030, the goal is to achieve a high-quality development pattern where supply and consumption interact positively, with a steady increase in consumption's contribution to economic growth [1] Group 2: Key Consumption Areas - The three trillion-level consumption sectors include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [1] - The ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots cover categories closely related to daily life, such as baby products, smart wearables, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor products, pet food, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national fashion apparel [1] Group 3: Current Market Trends - In the first ten months of this year, the trade-in policy for consumer goods has generated over 2.4 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting more than 360 million people [3] - Retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment have seen approximately 20% year-on-year growth, maintaining a rapid growth rate [3] Group 4: Regulatory and Standardization Efforts - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released 22 national standards related to energy and water consumption for daily consumer goods, enhancing the supply of quality products to meet consumer demand [3] - The plan emphasizes the development of energy-efficient and environmentally friendly products suitable for rural areas, including efficient range hoods, gas stoves, water heaters, and bathroom products [3][4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the Chinese government's efforts to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and improve the quality of life for citizens [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented a series of policies to boost consumption, including a trade-in program for consumer goods, which has generated over 2.4 trillion yuan in sales and benefited more than 360 million people in the first ten months of the year [1] - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.15 million units from January to October, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [1] Group 2 - Various promotional activities have been organized to create a vibrant consumption atmosphere, including over 20 themed events such as the "Boutique Shopping Season" and "International Consumption Season" [2] - The government is focusing on enhancing the modern commercial circulation system and supporting cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Chongqing to develop attractive consumer environments, which currently account for about one-third of foreign visitors and over half of the country's consumer goods imports [2] - International exhibitions like the China International Import Expo and the Consumer Expo have been held to connect Chinese and global markets, catering to diverse consumer needs [2]

Core Insights - The Guizhou provincial government is implementing measures to stimulate consumer spending and promote economic recovery, as highlighted in a recent press conference [1][4]. Consumer Market Performance - In the first three quarters, Guizhou's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.8%, with retail sales of above-designated size growing by 5.1%, surpassing the national average by 0.2% [4]. - The value added in wholesale and retail, as well as accommodation and catering industries, grew by 5.7% and 5.3%, respectively, also exceeding national averages [4]. Characteristics of Consumption - Strong support for commodity consumption is evident, with significant participation in trade-in programs for automobiles and home appliances, resulting in a total consumption of 49.762 billion yuan [4]. - The province has seen a notable increase in the replacement of automobiles (20.7%) and communication equipment (42.6%) [4]. Service Consumption Potential - A new initiative launched in October aims to enhance service consumption across various sectors, including dining, accommodation, and entertainment, with a focus on quality improvement [5]. - New business formats such as specialty coffee and craft beer have seen rapid growth, with a 52.8% increase in coffee and tea consumption in Guiyang [5]. New Consumption Drivers - The implementation of the "Ten Hundred Thousand" e-commerce development project has led to the establishment of multiple e-commerce demonstration parks and bases, contributing to a 12.6% increase in online retail sales, totaling 104.93 billion yuan [6]. - The launch of the "One Code Guizhou" online exhibition for local liquor aims to boost digital consumption [6]. Consumption Scene Activation - Guizhou has developed 140 commercial districts and 116 pedestrian streets, enhancing the shopping experience and attracting tourists [7]. - Various promotional activities have been organized around key consumption periods, generating over 2 billion yuan in retail and dining consumption [7]. Policy Measures for Consumption Expansion - The provincial government is continuing to promote trade-in programs for consumer goods, with new policies aimed at facilitating automobile replacement and upgrades [8]. - A new subsidy program for purchasing new cars has been introduced, offering financial incentives based on the price of the vehicle [8]. Support for Key Industries - Recent measures have been introduced to support the development of the catering and retail sectors, with specific initiatives aimed at assisting businesses facing challenges [9]. - The government is actively working to implement consumption promotion policies and provide targeted support to the wholesale, retail, accommodation, and catering industries [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "Shopping in China · 2025 Boutique Consumption Month" initiative was launched in Shanghai, aiming to enhance consumer spending and showcase premium products and services across over 100 cities in China [2] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was attended by key officials including the Vice Minister of Commerce and various city vice mayors, highlighting its national significance [2] - The initiative is part of the efforts to implement the spirit of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the decisions of the Central Government [2] Group 2: Focus Areas - The activities will focus on four main areas: boutique shopping, exquisite dining, exciting tourism, and fine performances, aimed at expanding quality consumption [2] - The initiative seeks to create new consumption scenarios that are widely impactful and highly visible, thereby continuously releasing consumer potential [2] Group 3: Participation and Promotion - At the launch, the eighth China International Import Expo featured country-specific products, and major domestic trade enterprises announced their intentions for importing goods [2] - New consumption and time-honored brand representatives showcased their latest products, while service sector companies outlined their activity plans [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Shopping in China 2025 Boutique Consumption Month" event was launched in Shanghai, aiming to enhance consumer spending and showcase China's international consumption capabilities [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Ministry of Commerce and aims to leverage the role of international consumption center cities, engaging over 100 cities nationwide [1] - The initiative focuses on four key areas: boutique shopping, exquisite dining, exciting tourism, and fine performances, to stimulate consumption [1] Group 2: Activities and Goals - During the event, various activities will be conducted to expand the supply of quality consumer goods and services, creating new consumption scenarios with broad appeal and visibility [1] - The launch ceremony featured the promotion of country-specific products by the guest country of the 8th China International Import Expo, along with procurement intentions from major domestic trade enterprises [1]

Group 1 - Hainan cities are launching various large-scale cultural and tourism activities to boost consumption, including a 10 million yuan tourism consumption voucher in Haikou and a series of events in Sanya [1][2] - The focus on large events reflects a respect for consumer demand, emphasizing emotional experiences over mere sightseeing, with activities designed to engage visitors actively [1][2] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays have prompted early planning for events, showcasing a diverse range of activities to cater to different consumer needs [2][3] Group 2 - The success of these activities hinges on creativity and uniqueness, with local resources and cultural characteristics being leveraged to create distinctive event brands [3] - The integration of local industries into these cultural activities is evident, as Haikou promotes its performing arts industry while Sanya aligns with its goal of becoming a world-renowned tropical coastal city [3] - The shift towards service-oriented and quality-driven consumption is accelerating, with events designed to create new consumer experiences and enhance the appeal of Hainan as a desirable travel destination [3]