周二，比特币价格加速下挫，自6月以来首次跌破10万美元大关，一度下探至99932美元附近，并跌穿200日移动均线，创下年内第二大单日跌幅。据 coinglass统计，过去24小时全网有34.2万人被爆仓，爆仓金额超过13亿美元，其中多头头寸占损失的85%。 比特币价格失守10万美元的关键心理关口。 周二，比特币价格加速下挫， 自6月以来首次跌破10万美元大关，一度下探至99932美元附近，并跌穿200日移动均线，创下年内第二大单日跌幅。市 值排名第二的以太坊同样暴跌超10%，跌至3225美元附近。 （比特币跌穿200日均线） （全网加密货币总爆仓数据） 分析认为抛售压力的背后，是美联储主席鲍威尔上周发表的鹰派言论。他淡化了市场对12月降息的预期，再次强化了利率将在"更长时间内保持高位"的 叙事。这一转变推动美元走强，对比特币等非生息资产构成了直接压力。 与此同时，数据显示，投资者在过去四个交易日内从比特币和以太坊相关ETF产品中撤出了超过18亿美元，进一步加剧了市场的流动性紧张。 分析师警告称，若无法守住当前阵地，更深度的回调或将到来，交易员正密切关注9.6万美元这一关键支撑区域。 技术位告急与市场情绪恶化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June, reaching approximately $99,932, marking the second-largest single-day drop of the year [1][2]. Market Performance - Ethereum also saw a sharp decline, falling over 10% to around $3,225 [1]. - In the past 24 hours, over 342,000 traders were liquidated, with liquidation amounts exceeding $1.3 billion, predominantly affecting long positions, which accounted for 85% of the losses [3][4]. Technical Analysis - The $100,000 level is not only a psychological barrier but also a crucial technical support level. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin remains below this level, it could trigger further sell-offs, with the next target being around $74,000, indicating a potential downside of approximately 30% from current levels [5]. - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has entered the "extreme fear" zone, reflecting widespread pessimism in the market [5][7]. Macro Factors - The market is facing multiple short-term headwinds, exacerbated by recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have diminished expectations for interest rate cuts in December and strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets like Bitcoin [4][9]. - Significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum-related ETF products have occurred, totaling over $1.8 billion in the past four trading days, further tightening market liquidity [4][9]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the prevailing market negativity, some investors are taking a contrarian approach. Strategy Company has recently increased its Bitcoin holdings by 397 BTC, spending approximately $45.6 million, with an average purchase price of $114,771 per Bitcoin [11]. - Notable bullish sentiment persists among some Wall Street analysts, with Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicting Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, despite recent market turmoil [12]. On-Chain Indicators - On-chain metrics indicate potential signs of a turnaround, with the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) dropping to the 13-14 range, historically marking liquidity turning points in the market [13][15]. - The current low SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity may be quietly rebuilding, potentially paving the way for a rebound or the final phase of the current bull market [15].

Core Insights - The global digital asset market is experiencing a significant turning point, with institutional investors' inflows into crypto products reaching a record high of $11.2 billion in a single month, surpassing the previous peak of $7.6 billion post-2024 U.S. elections [1][3] - The rise of Ethereum, the recovery of altcoins, and structural contradictions in stablecoin liquidity are reshaping the new landscape of the crypto market [1][3] Institutional Investment Trends - In July, digital asset investment products saw a weekly inflow of $1.9 billion, marking 15 consecutive weeks of net inflows, with the U.S. and Germany leading at $2 billion and $70 million respectively [3] - Ethereum-related products performed exceptionally well, with a weekly inflow of $1.59 billion, the second-highest on record, and a year-to-date total of $7.79 billion, exceeding the total for 2024 [3] - Bitcoin faced an outflow of $175 million, indicating a potential shift towards altcoins, with Solana, TRON, and SUI attracting inflows of $311 million, $189 million, and $800,000 respectively [3] Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The issuance of Tether (USDT) reached $8 billion in July, pushing its market cap to a historical high of $163.6 billion, while exchanges cashed out $5.7 billion, leading to a liquidity standoff [4][6] - The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) increased from 9.39 to 10.48 in mid-July, indicating a decrease in stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin's market cap [6] - The imbalance in stablecoin liquidity may stem from macroeconomic uncertainties, the rotation of funds into high-volatility altcoins, and evolving regulatory expectations [6][7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The transition from a retail-driven to an institution-led market is evident, with institutional investors focusing on the practical utility and maturity of underlying technologies like Ethereum [7] - The current market environment presents both opportunities and challenges, with Bitcoin's short-term pressure potentially offering a low-entry point for long-term positioning, while the active altcoin market poses high volatility risks [8] - The market is awaiting catalysts such as shifts in macroeconomic policies or the emergence of native crypto applications to determine the next phase of direction [8][10]