国内现货仍然处于弱势调整之中，市场现货整体成交不活跃，看来有中间库存在填补供应，而这部份的 填补，源自期现套利利润的兑现，故而对目前价格有表象冲击。柳州市场26013订货合同昨天的震荡幅 度有所加大，且成交量也同步增加，订货合同量减少，日内区间介于5300-5350区间内，收市价位于 5340压力附近，说明卖方的减持回购还是在参考这个强阻挡。所以，分钟级别及其上一级别都处于一个 中枢震荡状，如此级别的同步就表明市场没有分歧，后续冲高回落走势预期较大。 来源：沐甜科技 原糖在空头获利买进回补之下止跌反弹，三月合约收出14.50美分支撑有效的阳线，使得该支撑在摇摇 欲坠之下空头又将其挽回，这一切都在空头的掌握，后续的焦点又是15.30美分的阻挡表现，有效则意 味买进衰竭。 （来源：沐甜科技） 期糖2601合约昨天在减仓中反弹日线收出阳线，小时级别的反抽也到了5380重压力位附近。而今天则关 注分钟级别反抽力度，如果在5350支撑有效之下，整个反抽在5380-5390区间停滞的话，就要小心反抽 背驰的表现，05合约多单可以借势适当止盈，点位参考5255。 ...

Market Conditions - The latest USDA drought report indicates that approximately 9% of the U.S. corn planting area was affected by drought as of the week ending September 2, up from 5% the previous week and down from 13% the same time last year [1] - According to external forecasts, U.S. corn export net sales for the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to range between -400,000 to 1,000,000 tons, while for the 2025/26 marketing year, net sales are projected to be between 900,000 to 2,200,000 tons [1] Brazil's Export Outlook - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) projects that corn exports from Brazil in September will reach 1.94 million tons, compared to 1.62 million tons in the same month last year [2] Domestic Market Analysis - Donghai Futures reports that in Northeast China, the new season corn is being released in small quantities, with a generally strong wait-and-see attitude in the market. Farmers show limited willingness to sell at low prices, leading to a sluggish purchasing and sales environment [3] - In North China, corn prices remain stable, with tight channel inventory and limited circulation, resulting in frequent narrow fluctuations in prices. This year, there is no concentrated port pressure as seen last year, and port inventory is low, while downstream feed and deep processing enterprises also have low corn stocks [3] - According to Ruida Futures, as the new season corn approaches in Northeast China, the continuous release of reserve corn is supplementing market supply. Traders' confidence in maintaining prices is weakening, leading to accelerated sales of remaining stocks. Large enterprises have sufficient safety stocks to last until early October, while many processing companies are controlling their purchasing volumes [4]