空波动率策略
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股市呈结构性?情,债市?端偏谨慎
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market shows a structural trend, with a suggestion to hold IM long positions in stock index futures, maintain short - volatility strategies in stock index options, and be cautious about the long - end of the bond market in bond futures [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Structural trend, with a suggestion to observe more and act less. Yesterday, the A - share market showed a structural trend, with the total A - share index basically flat and trading volume dropping to around 2.3 trillion. The new energy and automotive sectors led the gains, while communications, banking, and defense were relatively weak. In the short - term, the outlook is positive due to signs of institutional capital entry, improved market confidence, and positive speculation sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [3][9]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month contract basis points were - 5.26, - 0.22, - 23.16, - 46.97 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 6.46, - 0.28, - 15.41, - 16.89 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 8.0, - 0.4, 64.0, 67.6 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.8, 0.0, 13.2, 0.8 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, IM changed by - 11030, - 1517, - 18126, - 15462 lots respectively [9]. Stock Index Options - **View**: During the adjustment, there is differentiation, and it is recommended to maintain short - volatility strategies. The market is in an adjustment phase with internal differentiation. From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the put - to - call ratio in the ChiNext and STAR Market is high, while dividend - related products like 50ETF are far from their previous highs. In terms of volatility, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were volatile, while other products rose slightly. It is recommended to continue short - volatility strategies such as covered calls and straddles [4][9]. - **Data**: The trading volume of the options market was 890.2 million yuan, a 28.81% decrease from the previous trading day [9]. Bond Futures - **View**: Be cautious about the long - end of the bond market. Yesterday, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net open - market injection of 8.85 billion yuan. However, during the tax - payment period, inter - bank market interest rates rose slightly. The August consumption and fixed - asset investment growth data were lower than expected, which is positive for the bond market, but the long - end is still affected by policy expectations and risk appetite. In the short - term, the central bank will support the short - end, and there may be long - end arbitrage and curve - steepening opportunities [5][10][11]. - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts were 94600, 54025, 24122, 111024 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 9200, - 17431, - 10117, - 39156 lots. The positions were 211649, 117782, 66544, 141755 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of 3776, - 952, 1400, - 554 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - product spreads, and basis points also had corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists economic data announcements for the current week, including China's August social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year rate, industrial added - value year - on - year rate, Eurozone's September ZEW economic sentiment index, US August retail sales month - on - month rate, and other data [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice on deepening the reform of cross - border investment and financing foreign exchange management, including canceling pre - investment fee registration, simplifying re - investment registration, and expanding cross - border financing convenience [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but specific data details are not fully provided [14][18][30].