"我国已从追求GDP增量转向追求科技创新，这本身就是一个国家开启'第二曲线'的过程。"清华大学经 济管理学院会计系长聘教授、清华私募股权研究院院长肖星在10月12日在清华大学举办的PE产业投资 家论坛系列活动上表示，要延长一个经济体的"黄金时代"，关键在于找到自己的"第二曲线"。就综合科 技能力而言，中美在多个领域已呈现并驾齐驱的态势。 21世纪经济报道记者 赵娜 本场对话主题为"穿越迷雾：寻找不确定性中的确定性投资主线"，另一位嘉宾为清华大学社会科学学院 经济所副教授、政治经济学研究中心秘书长靳卫萍。两位教授围绕"9·24"新政实施一年来的政策效应、 AI技术与全球政经变化的影响，以及"并购六条"带来的产业并购机遇展开讨论，从宏观到微观探寻投资 确定性的逻辑。 "今年A股市场出现了结构性牛市和明显的'新旧动能'转换。"她进一步表示，当前一级市场和二级市场 都在发生结构性演化。随着新质生产力对经济的拉动作用不断释放，如何真正看懂行业的发展尤为重 要。 清华大学全球私募股权研究院（简称"私募研究院"）是清华大学校级研究机构。PE产业投资家项目由 清华经管学院与私募研究院联合打造，课程内容涵盖宏观经济金融格局、产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - Today's stock market declined, fully erasing yesterday's gains. Although the trading volume of the two markets decreased, it remained above 2.5 trillion yuan. The decline in precious metals overnight led to a drop in the structural driving force, causing non - ferrous metals to correct significantly and technology - related concepts to lead the decline. Cyclical industries showed relatively strong performance but with limited driving force. Short - term structural changes may continue to cause the stock index to fluctuate widely. With important information to be released at home and abroad later this month, the stock market is unlikely to deviate significantly from the current level, and the correction space is limited. It is necessary to observe whether the support of the 5 - day moving average is effective [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.97%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 137.583 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IC declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3] Important Information - On October 10, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for energy - saving and new - energy vehicle products eligible for vehicle and vessel tax incentives. Reuters reported on October 10 that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased again last week, indicating that some contractors related to the US government shutdown laid off employees in advance. Starting from October 14, 2025, the maritime management institutions at the ports where the ships berth will collect special port fees for ships owned, operated by US enterprises, organizations or individuals, or ships with US - related equity stakes, US - flagged ships, and ships built in the US [4] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 2.18%, - 1.60%, - 2.24%, and - 1.71% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.6215 million lots, 0.73933 million lots, 1.7039 million lots, and 2.3345 million lots respectively, with环比 increases of 0.26302 million lots, 0.14217 million lots, 0.14916 million lots, and 0.19721 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.78581 million lots, 1.05743 million lots, 2.60074 million lots, and 3.56927 million lots respectively, with环比 changes of 0.01506 million lots, 0.0217 million lots, - 0.08282 million lots, and 0.03851 million lots respectively [6][8] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.94% and - 2.70% respectively. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 2,515.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.583 billion yuan compared with the previous day [8]

10月9日上午10点18分，上证指数站上3907.18点，这是自2015年8月以来，沪指首次突破3900点关口。 时隔十年，沪指再度突破3900点。这一消息在10月9日早间迅速传遍市场，投资者们的朋友圈被这一里程碑式的突破刷屏。 截至当天上午10点18分，上证指数报3905.52点，涨0.63%，深证成指与创业板指涨幅均超过1%。这一刻，市场已经等待了十年。 十年等待 开盘后不久，指数便突破3900点整数关口，截至发稿，沪指涨0.59%，报3905.52点。 其他指数方面，深证成指报13672.98点，涨1.08%，创业板指报3271.98点，涨1.04%，两市合计成交额超过1.13万亿元。 从板块来看，存储芯片、电解液、钴矿概念领涨，市场呈现结构性上涨特征。 沪指又一次逼近高位震荡箱体的上沿，不能有效突破的话，还会回落。 深指与创指在节前最后一个交易日冲高回落，未能达成金叉，日线顶背离的风险尚未真正化解。 沪指突破3900点的意义不同寻常。上一次沪指站在3900点上方，还是2015年8月的事情。 那一年，A股市场经历了大起大落，从疯牛到股灾，许多投资者的记忆都被刻上了深刻的烙印。 十年时间，中国资本市场经历 ...

2025年前三季度，在市场结构性行情主导下，公募基金业绩呈现出明显分化格局。其中，超50只基金净 值实现翻倍，部分科技和医药主题基金成为最大赢家，而重仓传统金融和周期板块的基金业绩表现则相 对一般。与此同时，市场避险情绪依旧高涨，国际现货金价不断创新高，全市场黄金ETF（交易型开放 式指数基金）业绩和份额实现双增。 数据显示，截至9月30日，全市场主动股票型基金年内平均收益率达34.54%，偏股混合型基金年内平均 收益率达34.13%，被动指数基金平均收益率为27.56%。对比来看，主动权益类基金表现较为出色，充 分体现出在结构性行情中主动投资的优势。与此同时，黄金ETF年内平均收益率更是达到41.04%。 业内人士向《国际金融报》记者表示，市场行情或将继续分化，四季度主线有望继续维持科技和创新药 行情。不过，前期涨幅较高的品种可能有较大波动，投资者可从主线行情中关注"高切低"的方向。 而主动权益类基金的高光表现离不开个别赛道的爆发，比如人工智能、算力、人形机器人等大科技赛 道，以及创新药等赛道。前三季度业绩领跑全市场的是永赢科技智选A，区间收益率达到194.49%，排 在第二的汇添富香港优势精选A同期收益率 ...

投资策略："水牛"行情延续，成长占优 主要逻辑 "水牛"行情延续，成长占优 【长江期货| 研究咨询部】 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/10/09 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F 投资咨询号：Z0021839 行情回顾：三季度A股市场呈现冲高震荡格局：上证指数 - 月延续涨势并刷新近十年高点后， 月转入高位盘整，围绕 点区间波动。本轮 横盘调整主要受双重因素影响：其一，前期快速上行积累的回调压力显现，在宏观经济尚未出现实质性拐点的背景下，市场存在自发修正需求；其 二，官媒针对局部估值泡沫风险发声提示，叠加投资者对后续政策节奏的观望情绪升温，导致部分资金风险偏好边际回落。整体看，成长板块的结 构性强势与传统板块的有序调整形成动态平衡，共同维系了市场在高位的运行韧性。 后市展望：展望四季度，行情上行的核心支撑逻辑未改，若无超预期利空扰动，市场在完成阶段性调整后仍具备向上拓展空间。从驱动因素看， 两大核心动能持续发力：其一，流动性宽松环境有望延续，国内低利率背景下居民与企业端的资产配置需求旺盛，叠加海外美联储开启降息周期带 来的外资回流预期，全球资金正加速向权益资产倾斜； ...

人民财讯9月29日电，银河证券研报认为，节前部分资金情绪趋于谨慎，市场交投活跃度小幅回落，宽 基指数呈现震荡格局，但短期波动不改市场向好趋势。同时，结构性行情依然突出，科技板块受益于海 内外产业趋势持续催化，尽管在情绪面影响下，周五行情出现调整，但短期压力释放后，仍存在修复向 上空间。展望后市，随着10月即将召开的二十届四中全会聚焦"十五五"规划，A股市场有望迎来关键窗 口期，市场风险偏好或将进一步回暖。同时，流动性预计延续向好趋势，两融余额处于上行通道中，居 民存款搬家仍处于初期阶段，美联储降息为全球流动性提供支撑。仍需关注中美谈判对短期结构性行情 的扰动。 ...

出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 段明珠 编辑 | 关雪菁 以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者段明珠 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 头图 | 视觉中国 在大A炒股就像玩游戏"打怪升级"，需要有一个从新手到终极玩家的攻略指南。 假如有这个指南，去年924行情时以5万元入市，理论上，4个月就有机会翻倍到千万级别，年后资金 体量更是能突破亿元。 原理很简单，根据每个副本的 背景和目标 （ 阶段趋势 ）， 分配资源制定策略 （ 抓强势股 ）。 事实上，这段小资金升级之旅在近一年中会经过三个重要阶段： 当然，妙投并非鼓励大家要"赌性坚强"，只是借此研究 A股的赚钱门道 ，更关键的是，发现 资本市 场底层密码，以及动能变化的关键要素 。 或许，如今"小登股"和"老登股"冰火两重天，慢牛也是一脚刹车一脚油门走得颠簸，这些现象的原因 也藏在其中。而不管是否炒股，只要有理财需求（ ETF、银行理财、保险 ），也很难绕过大A。 924普涨期（新手村）：重点是熟悉大A机制，获得初始装备； 年末混沌期（"妖股"大世界）：关键在掌握大A炒作逻辑，快速壮大资金实力； 结构行情 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown positive changes since the "9.24" market event, forming a pattern of oscillating upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a 10-year high and daily trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, leading to a total market value surpassing 100 trillion yuan [1][2] - There has been a shift from a structural market characterized by significant disparities among individual stocks to a phase where many stocks are rising simultaneously, although some stocks still lag behind the index [2][3] - The current market dynamics suggest that the extreme structural market conditions of the past are unlikely to repeat, but a complete market-wide rise is also not expected due to the lack of strong economic growth and the focus on specific themes rather than overall performance [2][3] Group 2 - Institutional investors are increasingly active in the market, often focusing on a limited pool of stocks, which leads to weaker performance for companies with mediocre performance, poor management, or unclear growth prospects [3][4] - The popularity of index-based investments, such as ETFs, means that many individual investors are not able to outperform the market, as these funds typically cover only a fraction of listed companies, contributing to the structural nature of the current market [3][4] - In a structural market, stock selection becomes crucial, with technology stocks being a primary focus, while investors are advised to avoid sectors like real estate and certain ST companies that carry higher risks [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.60% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.1 trillion, a decrease of over 200 billion compared to the previous day [2] - The market is showing increased divergence as the holiday approaches, with trading volume relatively dull compared to last week, but volatility is on the rise [3] Sector Performance - The market saw a broad adjustment, with most industry sectors declining. Wind power equipment, chemical fiber, fertilizer, and insurance sectors showed gains, while technology sectors such as gaming, consumer electronics, electronic components, internet services, communication equipment, and software development faced significant declines [6] - Technology stocks experienced a widespread retreat, particularly in computing power sectors, with companies like Zhongheng Electric, Lianang Micro, and Qingshan Paper hitting their daily limit down. Major stocks like Inspur Information and Industrial Fulian also saw substantial drops [8] - Copper-related stocks performed well against the trend, with companies like Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive limit-up days, and Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also rising. This was influenced by supply concerns following a landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which announced "force majeure" due to production stoppage [9] Investment Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, investors face a classic dilemma of whether to hold stocks or cash. The market is experiencing increased volatility and accelerated sector rotation [19] - The market's profitability is declining, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in the current uptrend [21] - Historical data indicates that the probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the National Day holiday is 60%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [21] Future Outlook - The technology sector has been a major contributor to the recent index gains, but the current crowded positioning indicates a demand for adjustment. The TMT sector has contributed 42% to the overall A-share index increase since June 23, with a trading volume share of 37% [25] - Given the historical trend of poor performance before the National Day holiday, there is a likelihood of profit-taking, and sectors with strong bottom support signals, such as banking and insurance, may be more favorable [26] - The market is expected to remain in a downward trend with a solid base, and while the medium to long-term upward momentum is still sufficient, more definitive trends may emerge post-October [27]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced significant changes over the past year, with total market capitalization increasing from 68 trillion to 104 trillion, surpassing the 100 trillion mark [1] - The bull market was initiated by the "924" policy, leading to a rapid rise in the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by nearly 1000 points within a few trading days [1] - The second wave of the bull market began in late June, driven by sectors such as chips, semiconductors, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals, further solidifying the bull market trend [1][2] Group 2 - The technology sector has become the new market leader, with the total market capitalization of the electronics industry surpassing that of the banking sector [2] - Over a thousand stocks have doubled in value, primarily in industries like machinery, electronics, and biomedicine, indicating a strong performance in the tech sector [2] - The shift of household savings from real estate to the stock market, along with increased foreign investment, has fueled the liquidity-driven bull market [2] Group 3 - Technology innovation is now a core national strategy, with the market capitalization of technology companies exceeding 25% of the A-share market [3] - The number of technology firms among the top 50 companies has increased from 18 to 24, highlighting the growing importance of tech companies in the market [3] - Financial resources are increasingly directed towards technology sectors, particularly in areas benefiting from domestic substitution policies [3] Group 4 - The channels for long-term capital entering the market are expanding, with various types of long-term funds holding approximately 21.4 trillion in A-shares, a 32% increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [4] - Regulatory efforts are being made to accelerate the entry of long-term capital, which is expected to favor stable cash flow and high dividend yield companies [4] Group 5 - Financial support for the real economy has intensified, with banks and insurance companies providing 170 trillion in new funds over five years, particularly for high-end manufacturing [5] - Companies with core technologies aligned with new productive forces are likely to receive more resource support, benefiting sectors like high-end equipment and new energy vehicles [5] Group 6 - The capital market is expected to continue its bull market trajectory, with a significant increase in the proportion of technology companies among newly listed firms [6] - The market has seen a notable increase in companies returning value to investors, with total distributions reaching 10.6 trillion over the past five years, an increase of over 80% compared to the previous period [6] Group 7 - Regulatory bodies are actively improving mechanisms for capital formation and long-term capital entry, enhancing market resilience and risk management [7] - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased from 19% to 15.9%, indicating improved market stability [7]