Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's residential transaction volume and prices are expected to rebound significantly starting from March 2025, with total transactions projected to exceed 60,000 for the year, marking the second highest level in nearly 13 years, following 2021 [1][2][7] Residential Market - In the first 11 months of 2025, Hong Kong's total transactions for new and second-hand private residential properties reached 54,669, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [2] - The second-hand residential prices confirmed a bottoming out from March to May 2025, with prices rising by 6.2% since the low point in late May, and an expected annual growth of 4.5% for 2025 [2][7] - The share of high-value properties (over 5 million HKD) in transactions has rebounded for the first time since 2022, indicating an increase in investment demand [2][7] Factors Driving Demand - The primary driver for the rebound in residential volume and prices is the increased asset allocation demand in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [7] - Contributing factors include the stabilization of the HKD/USD to RMB exchange rate, capital repatriation amid declining USD credit, and a strong wealth effect from rising Hong Kong stock prices [7] - Additional supportive elements include favorable talent attraction policies, an increase in international students, a rising housing demand, and a controlled supply from the government [7] Commercial and Office Market - The commercial office market in Hong Kong is under overall pressure but shows structural improvements, with increased transaction activity driven by domestic enterprises expanding their operations [14] - The rental rates for office spaces are still declining, with vacancy rates around 17%, but there is a trend of converting office spaces into student accommodations to address high vacancy rates [14] - Retail properties in core areas are experiencing improved rental conditions despite overall pressure, supported by an increase in inbound tourists and retail sales growth [14]

Core Insights - Despite significant challenges in the past six months, Hong Kong's office leasing and residential markets are showing signs of slight recovery [1] - The overall commercial prices and rents are expected to decline further in the second half of 2025, while low HIBOR will stimulate residential sales [1][2] - The demand for office leasing may benefit from the upcoming IPO wave, while retail leasing activity is expected to remain active despite increasing new supply [1][2] Office Market - The office market sentiment is improving, with increased leasing transactions and negotiations for prime office spaces in core areas, particularly Central [1] - The overall vacancy rate has risen to 13.6%, but specific areas like Wanchai/Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui have seen vacancy rates decrease to 9.5% and 7.9%, respectively [1] - A positive net absorption of 130,700 square feet was recorded in the first half of the year, driven by increased transactions in major districts [1][2] Residential Market - The residential market lacks clear direction, with factors such as falling HIBOR, rising stock prices, and stamp duty reductions benefiting the market [2] - However, geopolitical uncertainties and high negative equity levels pose significant challenges, with the second-hand market transaction volume expected to rise to about 20,000 units in the first half of 2025, still 22% lower than the average from 2018 to 2024 [2][3] - The supply of new units in the primary market is approximately 93,000, with a projected absorption period of 56.7 months, necessitating price reductions by developers [3] Retail Market - The vacancy rate for core street shops remains at 10.5%, while the vacancy rate for quality shopping malls has reached a new high of 10.5% due to increased supply [3] - Retail landlords are becoming more flexible in lease terms to attract tenants, including offering longer rent-free periods [3] - The upcoming completion of approximately 600,000 square feet of new retail space in the second half of 2025 is expected to exert upward pressure on vacancy rates, with rents projected to decline by 5% to 10% [4]