Core Insights - Despite significant challenges in the past six months, Hong Kong's office leasing and residential markets are showing signs of slight recovery [1] - The overall commercial prices and rents are expected to decline further in the second half of 2025, while low HIBOR will stimulate residential sales [1][2] - The demand for office leasing may benefit from the upcoming IPO wave, while retail leasing activity is expected to remain active despite increasing new supply [1][2] Office Market - The office market sentiment is improving, with increased leasing transactions and negotiations for prime office spaces in core areas, particularly Central [1] - The overall vacancy rate has risen to 13.6%, but specific areas like Wanchai/Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui have seen vacancy rates decrease to 9.5% and 7.9%, respectively [1] - A positive net absorption of 130,700 square feet was recorded in the first half of the year, driven by increased transactions in major districts [1][2] Residential Market - The residential market lacks clear direction, with factors such as falling HIBOR, rising stock prices, and stamp duty reductions benefiting the market [2] - However, geopolitical uncertainties and high negative equity levels pose significant challenges, with the second-hand market transaction volume expected to rise to about 20,000 units in the first half of 2025, still 22% lower than the average from 2018 to 2024 [2][3] - The supply of new units in the primary market is approximately 93,000, with a projected absorption period of 56.7 months, necessitating price reductions by developers [3] Retail Market - The vacancy rate for core street shops remains at 10.5%, while the vacancy rate for quality shopping malls has reached a new high of 10.5% due to increased supply [3] - Retail landlords are becoming more flexible in lease terms to attract tenants, including offering longer rent-free periods [3] - The upcoming completion of approximately 600,000 square feet of new retail space in the second half of 2025 is expected to exert upward pressure on vacancy rates, with rents projected to decline by 5% to 10% [4]

Group 1: Office Leasing Market - The overall Grade A office leasing market recorded a positive net absorption of 39,700 square feet in April after a negative absorption in March, with a stable vacancy rate of 13.7% [1] - The demand for office leasing is primarily driven by relocations for office upgrades, with The Payment Cards Group Limited leasing 12,100 square feet in Tsim Sha Tsui [1] - Certain industries, particularly finance, insurance, and education, are actively seeking office space, indicating a rising demand in specific sectors [1] Group 2: Rental Trends - Despite the stable vacancy rate, overall rental prices continued to decline, with a slight monthly decrease of 0.5% in April, marking the 36th consecutive month of rental decline since May 2022 [2] - Central and East Hong Kong recorded minor rental declines of 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, while other major districts also experienced similar decreases [2] Group 3: Residential Market - The overall residential transaction volume increased by 6.1% month-on-month in April, with the secondary market transactions rising to 4,080, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - The primary market transactions decreased to 1,614, but the performance remained strong due to the successful launch of several large projects [2] - A decrease in the one-month HIBOR by 3.36 percentage points to 0.59% as of May 26 is expected to alleviate pressure on mortgage borrowers, potentially boosting the residential market [2]