1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The market outlook is recommended [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of 2025, multiple factors have jointly promoted the global "quasi-reflation trade", and commodities have shown a resonant upward trend. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran has significantly changed the previous macro - environment, and if the conflict persists, the financial market will likely shift towards a "recession" trade [1] - The impact of this attack on Iran on the crude - oil price far exceeds historical similar situations, and there are concerns that it will more severely affect the macro - economy. The gold price during this conflict may be weak, and the US dollar index may show more resilience in the short - to - medium term but will tend to weaken in the long run [1] - Copper prices are expected to rebound, but if the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited. If the conflict lasts, the "stagflation" stage caused by supply constraints may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - perspective on Commodity Prices - **Before the attack**: Since December 2025, due to valuation repair, demand recovery, global interest - rate cuts and improved supply - demand at the micro - level, the commodity prices have gradually turned pro - cyclical, and the financial market has shown characteristics of "quasi - reflation trade" [11][13] - **After the attack**: The attack on February 28 has affected the macro - economic demand and monetary policy direction. The "quasi - reflation trade" environment has been damaged, and the financial market may enter a "recession" trading environment [18] 3.2 Historical Experience for Commodity Trends - **Impact on crude - oil prices**: In the seven armed conflicts the US participated in since World War II, the impact of this attack on Iran on crude - oil prices far exceeds historical similar situations, with an oil - price increase of 47.07% [31] - **Impact on gold prices**: During the Gulf War and this attack on Iran, gold prices declined. The main reason is that the market's expectation of monetary easing was postponed due to concerns about inflation [36][38] - **Impact on the US dollar index**: In the short - to - medium term, the US dollar index may be more resilient due to sufficient US oil production and the possible strengthening of the "oil - dollar" system, but it will tend to weaken in the long run [41] - **Impact on copper prices**: After conflicts, copper prices generally show a "U" - shaped trend. If the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited [46][47] 3.3 Changes in Commodity Fundamentals Caused by the Attack - The attack has inhibited the export of products from the Middle East, affecting the production of products such as crude oil and the raw - material supply of downstream industries. If the conflict persists, the "stagflation" stage may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [53][57]