Report Title - "【粕类周报】中美和谈，估值修复" [1] Report Information - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With China's expectation to purchase US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend. However, the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the distant future limit the upward space of the futures market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The estimated inventory-to-consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations. The supply and demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to be tight [4]. - As of October 25, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, lower than the same period last year and the five-year average. Pay attention to the relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [4]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the progress of far - month purchases is slow [4]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease. Pay attention to policy changes. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and downstream transactions are cautious [4]. - The downstream transactions and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and are expected to start decreasing in November. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level [4]. - Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - China has agreed to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans this season and at least 2.5 billion tons per year in the next three years, which is positive for soybean meal and negative for rapeseed meal [4]. 3.1.8 Investment View - The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [4]. 3.1.9 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and slightly upward; Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [31]. - The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased in the September report [37]. 3.2.2 Sowing and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - good rate data of US soybeans are presented, showing the trends in different years [46]. - The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [51]. 3.2.3 Crushing Volume - The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume data are presented, showing different trends in different years [58]. 3.2.4 Export - This week's US soybean export sales data was not announced. The historical data of US soybean export net sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China are presented [64]. 3.2.5 Import - The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost and crushing profit data of Canadian rapeseed are presented [71][74]. - The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are presented [78][80]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data are presented, showing the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and the low inventory of feed enterprises [81]. 3.2.7 Production and Sales - The data of the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented [92]. - The trading volume and pick - up volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [101][108]. 3.2.8 Price Difference - The price difference data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [113]. 3.2.9 Feed Production - The monthly feed production data are presented [114]. 3.2.10 Livestock and Poultry Breeding - The profit data of pig, broiler, and layer breeding, as well as the inventory data of livestock and poultry, are presented. The pig price has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious [116][124][128].