Group 1: Report Core View - The absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low. Recently, affected by weather speculation in Argentina and logistics congestion in Brazil, the futures market has been strong. However, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion will shift the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums later. There is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend. Currently, the domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. From the perspective of profit, the valuation of the soybean meal futures is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up unilaterally. The domestic supply and demand is expected to be loose in the first quarter, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [13] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - On January 29th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 438, in Tianjin was 378 (down 20), in Rizhao was 318 (down 20), in Zhangjiagang was 328 (down 10), in Dongguan was 318 (down 20), in Zhanjiang was 348 (down 20), and in Fangcheng was 338 (down 20). The basis of rapeseed meal in Yue was 147 (down 24). M3 - 5 was 294 (down 4), and RM5 - 9 was - 8 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 477 (down 8), and the futures spread of the main contract was not clearly stated in the text [5] Inventory Data - The text shows the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific data on January 29th is not clearly summarized [5][7][8] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9146, and the futures crushing profit was 153 yuan/ton. The text also shows the CNF premium trend chart of soybeans in 2025 and the futures crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given reports regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views 粕类产业 - The US soybean market has support at the bottom due to ongoing exports, but the strong expectation of a bumper harvest in South America restricts the upside potential. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose supply - demand situation, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers [1]. 生猪产业 - Spot prices are slightly stronger. The demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased, and the slaughter cycle is extended. The market shows a short - term trend of being slightly stronger in a volatile manner [2]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, with exports improving, providing support to the market. Soybean oil has potential support from increased bio - diesel production due to tax credits, and the domestic demand may increase. Rapeseed oil's focus is on whether the 05 contract can break through the 9000 - yuan resistance [4]. 玉米 industry - The supply of corn is affected by weather in the Northeast and the selling rhythm in the North China. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The market shows a short - term weak and volatile pattern with limited downside [5]. 红枣 industry - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market arrival is less than in previous years. The hedging profit is negative, and the future trend depends on the consumption situation [8]. 白糖 industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are in a short - term rebound, but the overall supply outlook is loose, keeping the trend bearish. The domestic sugar market has stopped falling and is rebounding, but the rebound is limited by supply pressure [10]. 棉花 industry - ICE cotton futures are rising slightly due to weak dollar and strong export demand. The domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - The supply of laying hens is gradually decreasing, and the demand is expected to improve during the New Year and Spring Festival. However, the overall supply - demand contradiction is only marginally alleviated, and the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [14]. 苹果 industry - The market consumption has slightly improved during the festival, but the apple market is squeezed by citrus fruits. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm, and long positions are advised to exit at an appropriate time [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3100 yuan/ton, M2605 futures price is 2728 yuan/ton; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2420 yuan/ton, RM2605 futures price is 2344 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread is - 122, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread is - 56, and the oil - meal ratio shows an increase [1]. 生猪产业 - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 15 yuan/ton, the price of Niu Zhu 2605 is 11985 yuan/ton, and the price of Sheng Zhu 2603 is 11480 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot**: The average spot price in various regions shows a slight increase, and the sample - point slaughter volume has increased by 0.16% [2]. 油脂 industry - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan/ton, Y2605 futures price is 7992 yuan/ton; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8470 yuan/ton, P2605 futures price is 8486 yuan/ton; the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9560 yuan/ton, OI605 futures price is 9302 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread is 64, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread is 124, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread is 42 [4]. 玉米 industry - **Prices**: The price of Yu Mi 2603 is 2196 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2280 yuan/ton; the price of Yu Mi Dian Fen 2603 is 2494 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The corn 3 - 5 spread is - 35, the corn starch 3 - 5 spread is - 44 [5]. 红枣 industry - **Prices**: The price of Hong Zao 2601 is 8800 yuan/ton, the price of Hong Zao 2605 (main contract) is 8890 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of red dates is - 90, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 245 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures**: The price of Bai Tang 2601 is 5392 yuan/ton, the price of Bai Tang 2605 is 5262 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract price is 15.30 cents/pound [10]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price is 5240 yuan/ton [10]. 棉花 industry - **Futures**: The price of Mian Hua 2605 is 14180 yuan/ton, the price of Mian Hua 2601 is 14210 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract price is 64.20 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15081 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B is 15271 yuan/ton [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ji Dan 01 contract is 3027 yuan/500KG, the price of Ji Dan 02 contract is 2947 yuan/500KG, and the egg - producing area price is 2.89 yuan/jin [14]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 2 spread of eggs is 125 [14]. 苹果 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ping Guo 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 991 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of apples is 473, and the 5 - 10 spread is 1022 [16].

Group 1: Sugar Investment Rating Not provided Core View The sugar market is expected to remain weak next week due to a lack of positive factors and weak price rebound. The supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices. The increase in supply has led to a decline in futures prices and a subsequent drop in basis sugar prices. [2] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar futures contracts have generally declined, while the ICE raw sugar主力 has increased slightly. The main contract's open interest has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices have decreased, and the basis has changed. The price of imported Brazilian sugar has increased, and the spread between imported and domestic sugar has also changed. [2] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative production and sales of sugar have decreased year - on - year, and the national sales rate has declined, while the sales rate in Guangxi has increased. Industrial inventories in most regions have decreased, except for an increase in Yunnan. Sugar imports have increased. [2] Group 2: Cotton Investment Rating Not provided Core View Internationally, US cotton maintains a volatile market. Domestically, the market expects a decline in Xinjiang's planting area next year, with a long - term optimistic outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, and cotton prices face some upward pressure. [5] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of some cotton futures contracts has declined slightly, and the open interest of the main contract has decreased. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts has increased. [5] - **Spot Market**: Some spot prices have increased, and the basis has also changed. [5] - **Industry Situation**: The shortage has increased, industrial inventories have increased slightly, imports have decreased, and the inventory in bonded areas has decreased. The inventory of the textile industry has decreased year - on - year, and the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth have changed. Cotton outbound shipments have increased, while the processing profit of spinning enterprises has decreased. Retail sales and export volumes in the textile and clothing industries have increased. [5] Group 3: Corn Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current grain sales progress is relatively fast, but the effective market circulation of grain is limited. The price is relatively stable in the short term due to factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell and low terminal inventory, but the supply pressure restricts the upward space of corn prices. [7] Summary by Directory - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2601 contract at Jinzhou Port has declined slightly, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 5 spread remains unchanged. The price at Shekou Port remains stable, and the north - south trade profit remains unchanged. The arrival - at - port duty - paid price has decreased slightly, and the import profit has increased. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased significantly, the open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased. [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract has increased slightly, and the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remain unchanged. The basis has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, the 01 - contract spread between starch and corn has increased, and the profit of Shandong starch has increased. The open interest has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [7] Group 4: Oils Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, there is a risk of further decline after breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Dalian palm oil futures are in a weak and volatile adjustment. For soybean oil, the potential reduction in US biodiesel production is negative for CBOT soybean oil, but the rebound of BMD palm oil provides some support. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the decline in basis quotes may be limited in the short term. [10] Summary by Directory - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil has declined, and the basis has changed. The import cost has decreased, and the import profit has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [10] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of soybean oil remains unchanged, and the basis has increased. The supply of domestic factories is sufficient, and the demand is limited. [10] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil has increased slightly, and the basis has also changed. [10] Group 5: Pigs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price of pigs is stable, and the downward support has increased with the increase in southern curing demand. However, there is great uncertainty in the December - January market due to factors such as the increase in the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening, and the overall supply pressure is still large. [12] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of some pig futures contracts have increased, and the 3 - 5 spread has changed. The open interest of the main contract has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [12] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in different regions have changed, and the slaughter volume of sample points has increased. The weekly prices of pork strips remain unchanged, while the prices of piglets and sows have decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight has decreased slightly, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and purchased pigs have increased. The number of fertile sows has decreased. [12] Group 6: Eggs Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg market is expected to be in a state of oversupply this week. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to insufficient terminal demand. [15] Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg futures contracts have declined, and the basis has increased. The 1 - 2 spread has decreased. [15] - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the producing areas has decreased slightly, the price of egg - laying chicken seedlings has decreased, the price of culled chickens has increased, the egg - to - feed ratio has increased, and the breeding profit has increased. [15] - **Industry Situation**: The number of culled chickens has decreased slightly, and the number of newly - laying hens is still low. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the inventories at all links in the industry chain need to be digested. The terminal consumption is lower than expected, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has declined. [15] Group 7: Meal Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans lack trading highlights, and the market is not optimistic about the medium - and long - term price of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, but there is a sentiment of supporting prices in the market, and attention should be paid to the performance of the 1 - 5 positive spread. [17] Summary by Directory - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal has increased, the futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has increased. The import crushing profit has increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal remains unchanged, the futures price has increased, and the basis has decreased. The import crushing profit has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts is zero. [17] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased, and the basis has increased. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remains unchanged, the futures price has decreased slightly, and the basis has increased. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, and Dalian palm oil futures are likely to continue to weaken. [1] - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a rebound after over - selling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high import costs but has a pattern of sufficient supply and weak demand. [1] Meal - U.S. soybeans face supply - demand pressure, and South American new - crop soybeans have good planting progress, so the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate widely. [2] Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures market is strong, but subsequent selling pressure may limit the gains. [5] Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening structure. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held. [10] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. Domestic sugar prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening pattern this week. [13] Cotton - Globally, the cotton supply is loose. Domestically, cotton prices may oscillate in a range in the short - term. [14] Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at the previous low. [17] Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with November 21, soybean oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan, and the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. Palm oil's spot price in Guangdong decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan, and the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. Rapeseed oil's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan, and the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan. [1] Meal - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, soybean meal's spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, the futures price (M2601) decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. Rapeseed meal's spot price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan, and the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan. [2] Corn - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan, the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. [5] Live Pigs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of live pigs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan to - 525 yuan. The spot price in Henan decreased by 150 yuan to 11550 yuan. [10] Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan, the Nanning spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5450 yuan, and the Nanning basis decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan. [13] Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the futures price of cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan, the 5 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan to - 50 yuan, and the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 3 yuan to 14574 yuan. [14] Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: On November 24, compared with the previous values, the price of the egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500KG, the egg - producing area price decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty, and the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500KG. [17]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on November 19, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Bean Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The price of US soybeans reached 1070 cents per bushel, hitting the cost line and triggering a correction. Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 6 cents per bushel. The cost of imported soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly by 20 yuan per ton, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan per ton. The trading and pick - up of soybean meal were both good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3492 million tons, compared with 2.0776 million tons last week. Soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week last week but remained high year - on - year [2] - In the next two weeks, the areas in the Brazilian soybean - producing regions with less rainfall in the early stage are expected to receive rainfall, and the sowing is expected to proceed smoothly. As of last Thursday, the planting progress had reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, tightening the global soybean balance sheet marginally. The US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but the US soybean exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory. The US soybean futures price thus corrected at high levels [3] Strategy View - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. The current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5] Group 3: Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days decreased by 10%. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, and was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. The US Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Domestic oils fluctuated on Tuesday and rose at night. The expectation of seasonal de - stocking supported the market, and the EPA's proposal for higher biodiesel usage in 2026 than expected also had an impact. The domestic spot basis was stable [7] Strategy View - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports has provided some support. The sustainability of this support needs to be observed. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to view palm oil as range - bound, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [8][10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5407 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups had no quotes for old sugar; Yunnan sugar - making groups' new sugar was quoted at 5630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5870 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The International Sugar Organization predicted that there would be a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, compared with a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. It is expected that the global sugar production will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, an increase of 473,700 tons or 13.8% year - on - year. As of now, 325 sugar mills in India have started production, an increase of 181 compared with the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 12.8 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons compared with the same period last year; the sugar production reached 1.05 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons; the average sugar yield was 8.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year [11][12] Strategy View - Recently, the strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the Zhengzhou sugar futures price, but the external market is still weak. Since August this year, due to the significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane - made sugar, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in the raw sugar price. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short at high prices [13] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell. The closing price of the January contract was 13,395 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1394 yuan per ton. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September estimate. The US cotton production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the Brazilian production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the Indian production remained at 5.23 million tons; the Chinese production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. As of the week of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [15][16] Strategy View - Fundamentally, the downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is also significant selling - hedging pressure due to this year's domestic bumper harvest. However, the previous decline in the futures price has digested some negative factors. The market currently lacks strong driving forces, and the cotton price is expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable to lower yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.08 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan per catty. The supply remained stable, the downstream demand was generally weak, and there was a small amount of inventory pressure. Traders were conservative, and the short - term bearish sentiment was mild. The egg price is expected to be stable to lower today [20] Strategy View - The futures price rebounded earlier than the spot price due to market expectations of a turnaround in the egg - laying hen inventory and increased demand after the temperature drop. The far - month contracts were relatively strong, but the spot price did not rise as expected, leading to an increase in the premium. The futures price fluctuated due to market sentiment. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of demand. The futures price is expected to trade in a range before the spot price realizes the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts are about the premium/discount game, and the far - month contracts reflect the expectation of production capacity reduction. In the medium term, as demand weakens and the focus returns to supply, pay attention to the upper resistance and look for opportunities to short on rebounds [21] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable with some minor increases yesterday. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 11.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan per kilogram. Farmers were reluctant to sell, and the supply of large - sized pigs was normal. The downstream had difficulty in purchasing at low prices. The pig price is expected to be stable to higher today [23] Strategy View - The current rebound in the pig price is mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large pig weight before the Spring Festival. In the context of oversupply, the general direction of the futures price is to short on rebounds. However, the current pattern of low prices and high open interest has formed, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, the first - recommended strategy is the reverse spread, followed by shorting on rebounds [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report was less bullish than expected, leading to an expected correction in the futures market. The poor profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing indicates that the domestic futures market is expected to follow the trend of the US market. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement news from the US and the trend of new - crop basis [5]. - The overall investment view is that the market will be in a state of oscillation. The trading strategy suggests a unilateral oscillation approach and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage. Key factors to monitor include policies and weather [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and decreased ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels, showing less - than - expected bullishness [5]. - CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% the previous week and 66.1% the same period last year, with a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather expected in southern Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [5]. - From November to December, domestic soybean meal inventories are expected to decline, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [5]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the expected supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China will shrink. Policy changes should be monitored [5]. - The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. Demand - For livestock and poultry, short - term high inventory levels are expected to be maintained, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect future supply [5]. - Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio [5]. - Recently, downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, while提货 performance has been good. Downstream transactions and提货 of rapeseed meal have been cautious [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December [5]. - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [5]. - Domestic rapeseed inventories have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories have been continuously decreasing [5]. Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [5]. Profit - The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor [5]. - The profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a moderately high valuation [5]. Macro and Policy - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US. The 24% additional tariff rate on US imports will continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained. Currently, the tariff rate for China's soybean imports from the US is 13% [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - In November, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 period decreased [34]. - The November report showed a decline in the rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level [85]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [55]. - This week, no US soybean export sales data were released [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia is expected to have a record - high production in 2025, pressuring the benchmark price. However, Indonesia's B85 policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term but could face resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the US soybean production cut in the USDA report was less than expected, causing CBOT soybeans to decline. In China, soybean oil inventory is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak, with a possible short - term correction for Dalian soybean oil [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance due to factors like farmers' reluctance to sell and transportation issues, leading to a price rebound. But considering the large supply during the new - season harvest, the upward movement is limited, and attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. 2.3 Sugar - India's sugar export in the 25/26 season may face short - term difficulties, and Brazil's supply is in a relaxed state. The raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is likely to remain volatile next week [7][8]. 2.4 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. Globally, production has increased, and demand has only slightly risen, leading to an increase in ending inventory. In China, new cotton supply is high in the short - term, and downstream demand is weak, but some local products offer support. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [9]. 2.5 Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet for soybeans met market expectations. There is a lack of substantial positive factors for US soybeans, and China's high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. Bean meal is expected to trade in a wide range [11]. 2.6 Eggs - The supply of eggs remains high due to stable laying - hen inventory, and demand is in a seasonal slump. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed, the market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. 2.7 Pigs - The spot price of pigs is weak, but the market may strengthen tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may support prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited upside and downside in the short - term. A 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan, up 0.35% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan, down 0.72%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan, down 1.23%. The basis of P2601 increased by 70.33%. The import cost and profit decreased [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan, up 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis of OI601 increased by 28.77% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port fluctuated. The basis increased by 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.63%. The import profit increased by 5.00% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the starch - corn 01 spread decreased by 0.31% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.76%, and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.53%. ICE raw sugar increased by 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.46% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased. The import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the national sales rate decreased. The industrial inventory in some regions increased [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.19%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.30%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 300.00% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Xinjiang and the CC Index decreased slightly. The basis increased [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory, import volume, and some other indicators increased, while textile exports decreased [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%, and the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.68%. The basis decreased by 52.38%. The import crushing margin decreased significantly [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 25.00% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The price of the soybean No.1 futures contract increased by 2.08%, and the soybean No.2 futures contract increased by 0.37%. The basis of both decreased [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 0.23%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread increased by 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.34%. The basis decreased by 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chick prices remained unchanged, and the egg - feed ratio decreased. The breeding profit decreased [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the 2601 decreased by 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.00%. The basis increased by 103.57% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions fluctuated. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.74% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, and the piglet price increased slightly. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [17].

Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 12, 2025, covering market information and strategy views on soybeans, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs [1][2] Market Information Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Overnight CBOT soybeans were basically stable, and the market awaited the USDA monthly report. Brazilian soybean premiums fell slightly on Tuesday, increasing the cost of imported soybeans. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with the price in East China at 2,990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick-up was good. Chinese ports' soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons last week due to large arrivals and a decline in the operating rate. MYSTEEL estimated that soybean crushing volume at oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, up from 1.8057 million tons last week [2] - In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern soybean-producing areas of Brazil will be uneven and scarce, while other areas will be normal. As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 61% of the expected level, compared with 67% at the same time last year. ANEC predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 426,000 tons, up from 377,000 tons the previous week [2] Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first five days of November increased by 6.8% month-on-month, and production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. - The US Department of Agriculture will release monthly supply and demand estimates on November 14, providing yield data for grain and oilseed futures. - An Indonesian energy ministry official said that as of November 10, the country's biodiesel consumption this year had reached 12.25 million kiloliters, using FAME as raw material. The Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025. - Domestic oils rebounded slightly on Tuesday. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October exceeded expectations, and high-frequency data showed a slight decline in exports and a slight decrease in production in the first 10 days of November. Domestic spot basis was stable at a low level [6] Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Tuesday. The closing price of the January contract was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.09% from the previous trading day. - Guangxi sugar - making groups had no offer for old sugar. Yunnan sugar - making groups' offers were between 5,530 - 5,580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream offer range for processed sugar mills was 5,770 - 5,880 yuan/ton, also unchanged. - India's food minister said that the central government had decided to allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. According to Mutian Technology, sugar mills in Guangxi are expected to start operation as early as November 15, 7 days later than last year. As of November 9, 2025, 3 sugar mills in Yunnan had started operation in the 2025/26 season, 1 more than last year [11] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Tuesday. The closing price of the January contract was 13,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15% from the previous trading day. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day. The basis between CCIndex 3128B and the main cotton contract (CF2601) was 1,282 yuan/ton. - As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, 6.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 8.64 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 74.04%. - On November 10, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.25 yuan/kg, and that of hand - picked cotton was 6.94 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day [14] Eggs - The national egg price was mostly stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 2.96 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, farmers sold eggs as usual, market demand was average, and downstream traders' purchasing intention weakened. It is expected that today's egg price will be stable in some areas and slightly decline in others [17] Hogs - Domestic hog prices were half stable and half falling yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.21 yuan to 11.98 yuan/kg, the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 11.53 yuan/kg, and the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged at 11.59 yuan/kg. Farmers were eager to sell hogs, supply was sufficient, demand showed no obvious improvement, trading was average, and today's hog prices will continue to be weak [21] Strategy Views Soybean Meal - Import costs are expected to fluctuate. China's soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. It is expected that soybean meal prices will rise in the short term following import costs, and crushing margins will recover, stimulating purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rallies [4] Oils - The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market. The recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports provides support, and its sustainability should be observed. The current situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. The strategy is to view the market as range - bound and turn bullish if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar - The recent strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market remains weak. Brazil's sugar production in the central - southern region has exceeded last year's due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upside for raw sugar is limited, and import profits have reached a five - year high. The strategy is to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [12] Cotton - Fundamentally, downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain is significantly lower than in previous years. There is also significant selling pressure from hedging due to a domestic bumper harvest this year. However, the previous decline in the futures market has digested some negative factors, and there is currently no strong driving force for the market. It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [15] Eggs - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in egg - laying hen inventories. After the temperature drops, hoarding sentiment has increased, breaking the previous downward spiral of egg prices. With subsequent consumption themes such as the Double Eleven shopping festival and pre - holiday stocking, improved sentiment is expected to drive inventory accumulation in the market. The futures market has anticipated price increases in advance, but with a premium over the spot market, bulls are generally cautious, and the expectation of high supply still exists. It is expected that egg prices will be relatively strong in the short term, and the strategy is to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for short - selling opportunities [19] Hogs - The recent rebound in hog prices was mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply generated by these factors, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, will create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large hog weights before the Spring Festival. With an oversupply, the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies. However, the current situation of low prices and high open interest has created a game - like market, and there may be a short - term rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, the recommended strategy is to first engage in reverse arbitrage and then wait for rallies to sell short [22]