农产品早报 2025-11-19 五矿期货农产品早报 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 进口成本方面，全球大豆新作产量一直被边际下调，总产量已持平于总需求，全球大豆供应相比 24/25 年度有所下降，这意味着进口成本的底部或已显现，但向上空间或需要更大的减产力度。当前国内大豆 库存处历年最高水平，豆粕库存偏大，榨利承压，不过逐步进入去库季节，存在一定支撑。豆粕在成本 有支撑，榨利承压的情况下预计震荡运行。 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆先涨后落，美豆上涨至 1070 美分/蒲触及成本线触发回调，周二巴西升贴水下跌 3-6 美 分/蒲，大豆到港成本震荡。国内豆粕现货小幅下调 20 元/吨，华东报 2990 元/吨，豆粕成交、提货均较 好。MYSTEEL 预计本周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report was less bullish than expected, leading to an expected correction in the futures market. The poor profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing indicates that the domestic futures market is expected to follow the trend of the US market. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement news from the US and the trend of new - crop basis [5]. - The overall investment view is that the market will be in a state of oscillation. The trading strategy suggests a unilateral oscillation approach and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage. Key factors to monitor include policies and weather [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and decreased ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels, showing less - than - expected bullishness [5]. - CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% the previous week and 66.1% the same period last year, with a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather expected in southern Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [5]. - From November to December, domestic soybean meal inventories are expected to decline, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [5]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the expected supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China will shrink. Policy changes should be monitored [5]. - The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. Demand - For livestock and poultry, short - term high inventory levels are expected to be maintained, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect future supply [5]. - Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio [5]. - Recently, downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, while提货 performance has been good. Downstream transactions and提货 of rapeseed meal have been cautious [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December [5]. - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [5]. - Domestic rapeseed inventories have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories have been continuously decreasing [5]. Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [5]. Profit - The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor [5]. - The profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a moderately high valuation [5]. Macro and Policy - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US. The 24% additional tariff rate on US imports will continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained. Currently, the tariff rate for China's soybean imports from the US is 13% [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - In November, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 period decreased [34]. - The November report showed a decline in the rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level [85]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [55]. - This week, no US soybean export sales data were released [68].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8590 | 8560 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 Y2601 | | 8256 | 8316 | | -60 | -0.72% | | 墓差 Y2601 | | 334 | 244 | | 90 | 36.89% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 | | 01+270 | 01+270 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 24993 | 24993 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 8590 | 8570 | | 20 | 0.23% | | ...

农产品早报 2025-11-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆基本稳定，市场等待 USDA 月报给出指引。周二巴西升贴水小幅下跌，大豆到港成本上 升，国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2990 元/吨，豆粕成交较弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大 豆再度累库至 1000 万吨以上，因到港量偏大且开机率下滑，MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 215.79 万吨，上周压榨大豆 180.57 万吨。 杨泽元 未来两周，巴西大豆产区东南部降雨分散不均且偏少，其他地区较为正常，据外媒报道，截至上周四， 巴西 2025/26 年度大豆播种率已经达到预期的 61%，去年同期为 67 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it may reverse the situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. The strategy is to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [10]. - For sugar, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price has rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [12]. - For cotton, the downstream demand is weak, and the domestic production is high this year, with great selling - hedging pressure. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate [15]. - For eggs, short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for short - selling opportunities [20]. - For pigs, in the long - term, the strategy is to sell on rallies. Currently, the first - choice strategy is reverse arbitrage, followed by short - selling after the rebound [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable on Monday, and the transaction and pick - up were good. The domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. The expected soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week is 2.1579 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost fluctuates mainly. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but there is some support as it enters the de - stocking season. Short - term, the price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and in the medium term, sell on rallies [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month. As of November 7, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils decreased by 5.16% week - on - week and increased by 8.52% year - on - year [6]. - **Strategy**: The high production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. Before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, view it as oscillating weakly. Turn to a long - position thinking if there are signals of production decline [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. India will allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The expected opening time of Guangxi sugar mills is November 15, 7 days later than last year. As of November 9, 3 sugar mills in Yunnan have opened, 1 more than last year [11]. - **Strategy**: Due to the strengthening of import control, the Zhengzhou sugar price has rebounded, but the external market is weak. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate. As of November 7, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.4%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week [14]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is weak, and the domestic production is high. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or decreased yesterday. The supply is stable, and the market demand is average [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for short - selling opportunities [20]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend yesterday. The demand side has limited acceptance of the current pig price, and the support for the pig price has weakened [22]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, sell on rallies. Currently, the first - choice strategy is reverse arbitrage, followed by short - selling after the rebound [23].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, it is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improving profit margins stimulating purchases. In the medium - term, the outlook of ample global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It may reverse the current supply - surplus and inventory - building situation from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to view it as range - bound with a downward bias until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and turn bullish if there are signs of production decline [5] - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to fade and then look for short - selling opportunities [9] - For cotton, the fundamental situation is weak with poor demand and high domestic production this year. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [12] - For eggs, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. In the short - term, the market is expected to consolidate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading, and pay attention to the upper - level pressure in the medium - term [15][17] - For pigs, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and expectations of global bumper harvests. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with weak trading but good pick - up. The oil mill operating rate was 52.4%, up from the previous day. MYSTEEL estimated the domestic soybean crushing volume this week to be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall [2] Strategy Views - Import costs are expected to move in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, squeezing profit margins, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support [3] Palm Oil Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% in October and 6.8% in the first five days of November. Domestic oils rebounded on Thursday following the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil prices are constrained by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia [4] Strategy Views - High production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The current supply - surplus and inventory - building situation may reverse. The strategy is to be bearish until exports improve and turn bullish on signs of production decline [5] Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. Brazilian and Indian sugar production forecasts were released, with Brazilian sugar production expected to be higher and Indian net sugar production expected to be 30.95 million tons after deducting ethanol production [8] Strategy Views - Strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to fade and then short - sell [9] Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. Spinning mill operating rates remained flat week - on - week and were lower than in previous years. Xinjiang cotton purchase prices declined slightly [11] Strategy Views - Weak demand and high domestic production this year lead to a weak fundamental situation. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [12] Eggs Market Information - National egg prices were partly stable and partly rising. Supply was sufficient, and market demand was stable. Downstream traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased slightly [14] Strategy Views - Low replenishment and high culling have led to expectations of a peak - to - decline in inventory. With the improvement of sentiment, the market is expected to consolidate strongly in the short - term [15][17] Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices were mixed. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the slaughter volume decreased slightly. Southern prices may stop falling and stabilize [18] Strategy Views - Group farms have completed a high proportion of their plans, but the spot price increase was less than expected. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [19]

Report Overview - This is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on November 5, 2025, covering market information and strategic views on multiple agricultural products [1][2] Market Information Soybean and Bean Meal - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and the expectation of a global soybean bumper harvest. Brazilian soybean premium was stable, while the cost of domestic soybean imports increased [2] - On Tuesday, the domestic bean meal spot price dropped by 10 yuan, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan/ton. Bean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. The oil mill operating rate was 51%, down from the previous period [2] - MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume this week would be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week [2] - As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. It was rumored that China had purchased several cargoes of US soybeans [2] Fats and Oils - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 5.55% [6] - Reuters survey showed that palm oil inventory was expected to soar 3.5% in October to 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023 [6] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted that in November, the consumption of fats and oils would enter the peak season. With the depletion of domestic rapeseed inventory in oil mills and the continuous decline of rapeseed oil inventory, and the recent decline in the fat and oil market price driven by palm oil, downstream consumption demand might be stimulated [6] - On Tuesday, domestic fats and oils slightly corrected. It was reported that Australian rapeseed would enter China, while palm oil was still restricted by the high recent production in Malaysia and Indonesia [6] Sugar - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January sugar contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day [9] - In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, down 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5790 - 5920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9] - According to UNICA data, in the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 34.037 million tons, an increase of 0.3% year - on - year; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points year - on - year; sugar production was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year [10] Cotton - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January cotton contract was 13535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day [13] - As of the week ending October 31, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared with the previous week, 6.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.52 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [13] - On November 3, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 7.01 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [13] Eggs - The national egg price remained stable yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.84 yuan/jin, with the price in Heishan remaining at 2.7 yuan/jin and that in Guantao at 2.69 yuan/jin [17] Pigs - Domestic pig prices generally continued to decline yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.25 yuan to 12.04 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped 0.19 yuan to 11.67 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped 0.26 yuan to 11.63 yuan/kg [20] Strategic Views Soybean and Bean Meal - The import cost is expected to fluctuate mainly. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are high, and the crushing profit is under pressure. In the short term, bean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing profit will recover, stimulating ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still advisable to sell on rebounds [4] Fats and Oils - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. In the short term, the current situation of large supply and inventory accumulation of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to view the market as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves, and turn to a long - position thinking if there are signs of production decline [8] Sugar - Recently, due to the strengthening of import control of syrup and premixed powder, the Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to wait for the rebound momentum to weaken and then look for opportunities to short [11] Cotton - Fundamentally, demand is weak this year, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. The new - year domestic cotton harvest is abundant, and the selling hedging pressure is high. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [14] Eggs - The continuous low replenishment and high culling of chickens have led to the expectation of a peak and decline in inventory. It is expected that the egg price will be mainly strong and consolidate in the short term, and the upper - level pressure should be monitored in the medium term [18] Pigs - The plan completion rate of large - scale pig farms is relatively high, but due to the increasing difficulty in selling white - striped pigs, the spot price increase is less than expected. It is advisable to short on rallies, but since the current futures market position is high, cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [21]

Report Title - "【粕类周报】中美和谈，估值修复" [1] Report Information - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With China's expectation to purchase US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise. The futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend. However, the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the distant future limit the upward space of the futures market [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The estimated inventory-to-consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 6.9%, with potential for a downward adjustment in the expected yield per acre and an upward adjustment in export expectations. The supply and demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to be tight [4]. - As of October 25, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 34.4%, lower than the same period last year and the five-year average. Pay attention to the relatively dry conditions in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [4]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose, and the progress of far - month purchases is slow [4]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease. Pay attention to policy changes. The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and downstream transactions are cautious [4]. - The downstream transactions and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and are expected to start decreasing in November. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have dropped to a low level [4]. - Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybean purchases is poor, while the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation; from the perspective of basis, the futures price of soybean meal is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - China has agreed to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans this season and at least 2.5 billion tons per year in the next three years, which is positive for soybean meal and negative for rapeseed meal [4]. 3.1.8 Investment View - The market is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [4]. 3.1.9 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and slightly upward; Arbitrage: Wait and see. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply and Demand Data of Meal 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [31]. - The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased in the September report [37]. 3.2.2 Sowing and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - good rate data of US soybeans are presented, showing the trends in different years [46]. - The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [51]. 3.2.3 Crushing Volume - The NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly US soybean crushing volume data are presented, showing different trends in different years [58]. 3.2.4 Export - This week's US soybean export sales data was not announced. The historical data of US soybean export net sales volume, cumulative export sales volume, and export sales volume to China are presented [64]. 3.2.5 Import - The CNF premium of soybeans and the import cost and crushing profit data of Canadian rapeseed are presented [71][74]. - The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are presented [78][80]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventory data are presented, showing the high inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and the low inventory of feed enterprises [81]. 3.2.7 Production and Sales - The data of the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented [92]. - The trading volume and pick - up volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [101][108]. 3.2.8 Price Difference - The price difference data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented [113]. 3.2.9 Feed Production - The monthly feed production data are presented [114]. 3.2.10 Livestock and Poultry Breeding - The profit data of pig, broiler, and layer breeding, as well as the inventory data of livestock and poultry, are presented. The pig price has slightly rebounded, and the weight reduction is not obvious [116][124][128].

Report Overview - This is the agricultural product morning report of Wukuang Futures on November 3, 2025, covering protein meals, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, expect short - term price increases following import costs, with a mid - term strategy of selling on rebounds due to the expected global soybean supply surplus [5] - For oils, suggest a bearish view in the short - term until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] - For sugar, recommend looking for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens due to limited upward space for raw sugar [13] - For cotton, expect limited upward space for cotton prices in the short - term due to weak fundamentals [16] - For eggs, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] - For pigs, suggest a strategy of selling on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20] Summary by Category Protein Meals Market Information - Last Friday, CBOT soybeans rose as the market expected China to buy a large amount of US soybeans. Over the weekend, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan, with the East China price at 2950 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal trading was average, and pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume this week will be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the main Brazilian planting areas will be at a neutral level. US officials said China will buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans after the APEC talks [3] Strategy Viewpoints - Import costs will mainly trade in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the inventory - reduction season approaches, there is some support. Expect short - term price increases following import costs, a rebound in the crushing margin, and an increase in vessel bookings. In the mid - term, the expected global soybean supply surplus remains unchanged, so the strategy is to sell on rebounds [5] Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 30 increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63% compared with the same period last month. As of the week of October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% to 155,500 tons. China and Canada agreed to promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues [7] Strategy Viewpoints - The high - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. Palm oil's inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the inventory - reduction time may come earlier. Before Malaysian palm oil exports improve, maintain a bearish view, and switch to a bullish view if there are signs of production decline [9] Sugar Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to trade sideways. The closing price of the January contract was 5483 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of processed sugar remained unchanged. In the first half of October, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 34.037 million tons, a sugar production of 2.484 million tons, and an increase in the sugar - making ratio [11][12] Strategy Viewpoints - Stricter import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the overseas market is still weak. Brazil's central - southern region's cumulative sugar production has exceeded last year's level, and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the 2025/26 season limits the upward space for raw sugar. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [13] Cotton Market Information - On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded in a narrow range. The closing price of the January contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. As of the week of October 31, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.6%. On November 1, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.31 yuan/kg [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Due to weak demand during the peak consumption season this year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is an expected high - yield in the new year, and the selling hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in the new cotton purchase price has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space for cotton prices in the short - term is limited [16] Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable, with some local decreases. The laying hen inventory decreased slightly, but the supply of medium and small - sized eggs was still sufficient. The demand side was supported by increased stocking due to the cooling weather and upcoming Double Eleven preparations [17] Strategy Viewpoints - Low replenishment and high culling rates have led to expectations of a peak and decline in inventory. With increased stocking sentiment after the cooling, the previous downward spiral of egg prices has been broken. With upcoming consumption themes such as Double Eleven and pre - festival preparations, the market sentiment is improving. However, due to the high premium in the futures market and the expected high supply, expect short - term strong consolidation, and pay attention to upper pressure in the mid - term [18] Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, domestic pig prices mainly declined. Some large - scale breeding groups increased their pig sales at the beginning of the month, resulting in a price drop. The demand increase was insufficient, and the supply still exceeded demand [19] Strategy Viewpoints - Large - scale breeding groups have a high plan completion rate, but the spot price increase was less than expected due to difficulties in selling pork. There is a phenomenon of inventory postponement, and the market is under high - supply pressure. The futures market has priced in the future supply pressure in advance. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse spreads [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the import of US soybeans may slow down the domestic de - stocking process and reduce the crushing profit margin. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. - For sugar, the tightening of syrup and premix import controls drives the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound, and it is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would buy tens of millions of tons of soybeans. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2910 yuan/ton, the transaction volume at 145,000 tons, and the delivery volume at 196,400 tons. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days last week. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, and the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week. As of last Thursday, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36%, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a neutral level [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans is mainly oscillating. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the crushing profit is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared with the same period last month, the export volume from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% - 16.2%, the export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4%, and the export volume from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4%. SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, the production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71%, and the production from October 1 - 25 increased by 1.63%. The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market, and there are rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: The high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. If the high - yield in Indonesia cannot be sustained, the inventory accumulation situation may reverse; otherwise, it will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view it as oscillating weakly before the export of Malaysian palm oil improves [8]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated weakly. The closing price of the January contract was 5472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.4% compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants were stable. The customs has tightened the import control of Thai syrup and premix, with the number of suspended enterprises increasing from 35 to 44, and the scope of suspension expanding [9]. - **Strategy**: The tightening of import controls drives the rebound of sugar prices. However, due to the negative data of sugar production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, it is advisable to wait for the rebound to weaken and then look for short - selling opportunities [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the January contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% compared with the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton increased slightly, and the basis was 1243 yuan/ton. The China - US economic and trade teams reached some consensus in the negotiations, including the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" by the US on Chinese goods [12]. - **Strategy**: The demand during the peak consumption season is weak this year, and there is an expected bumper harvest in the new year. Although the recent increase in the purchase price of new cotton drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the upward space of cotton prices is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.88 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and the market sales were average. It is expected that the national egg prices will mostly remain stable and a few areas may have narrow adjustments today [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The spot price still has a rebound expectation but is limited by high supply. The futures market is in a state of bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed mixed trends with more price - falling areas. As the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is not high, but the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing decreases after the price increase. It is expected that pig prices will be stable with a weak trend today [18]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, pig prices are likely to fall easily due to high supply pressure. In the short term, there may be a rebound. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions and short - sell after reaching the pressure level [19].