1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the context of the Fed's loose monetary policy and the strong performance of precious metals, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is generally positive. However, each metal has its own supply - demand situation and price influencing factors, and the price trends vary [2][3]. - For copper, although there is a possibility of a short - term price increase, the resistance to upward movement is increasing. For aluminum, the price is expected to fluctuate and gradually rise. For lead, the price is expected to be strong within a wide range in the short term. For zinc, it may show an upward pulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term. For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. For nickel, the short - term bottom may have emerged. For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply pressure eases and the bullish trend on the disk has not ended. For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. For stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation. For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][6][9][11][14][17][20][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper price rose 0.34% to $11,911/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 93,920 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons. In China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, the bonded - area inventory increased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 49,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the import loss of Shanghai copper spot widened to 1,600 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed slightly to 4,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy View**: The sentiment is positive under the Fed's policy and precious metals rally. The copper mine supply is tight, and the supply surplus pressure is not large in the short term, but the resistance to upward movement is increasing. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 92,800 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 11,800 - 12,000 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum price fell 0.49% to $2,941/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.5 to 659,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 76,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by about 27,000 tons, and the aluminum rod processing fee decreased. The LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 520,000 tons [5]. - **Strategy View**: The overall inventory is relatively low, and the price support is strong, but there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and gradually rise. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,910 - 2,980 dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.22% to 16,917 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose $5 to $1,978.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 40 tons to 1,910 tons [8]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of lead ingots is tightening marginally, and the inventory is relatively low. After the short - term macro - risk release, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is strong. The lead price is expected to be strong within a wide range in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.18% to 23,123 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose $19 to $3,092/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 70 tons to 11,930 tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. The LME zinc inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. Affected by macro - sentiment, the zinc price may show an upward pulse in the short term but is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 340,440 yuan/ton, a 0.18% decrease. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi have limited production growth momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 3.48% to 121,260 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rose slightly [15]. - **Strategy View**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have emerged due to the news of potential cobalt taxation in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 3.18% to 108,405 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 114,380 yuan, a 2.68% increase [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply pressure eases, and the bullish trend on the disk has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The operating range of the LC2605 contract is 111,600 - 117,100 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 1.08% to 2,561 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 135 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB remained at $309/ton, and the import loss was 59 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the follow - up production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, a 1.02% increase. The social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a 2.01% decrease [25]. - **Strategy View**: The news of the reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production target has boosted the price, but the spot trading is still light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract AD2602 rose 0.26% to 21,290 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position remained stable at 28,900 lots, and the trading volume increased [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is relatively strong, and there are supply - side disturbances, but the demand is unstable and there is delivery pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [29].