Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic copper smelting enterprise with a robust profit model and a significant asset injection from its major shareholder [3]. - The company has a well-structured mining segment, with the main asset being the Pulang Copper Mine, which has a stable annual copper production of 35,000 to 40,000 tons [3]. - The company is set to enhance its resource reserves and industrial layout through the acquisition of a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining, which will increase its copper production capacity significantly [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in copper prices and has a strong profit outlook for the coming years [3]. Company Overview - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. is a state-owned enterprise established in 1958, originally part of China's first five-year plan [11]. - The company is the only publicly listed platform for the copper segment under the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) [16]. - The company has a total copper smelting capacity of 140,000 tons, ranking third in China, with significant production facilities located in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian [60]. Business Analysis - The company has a complete industrial chain in copper and related non-ferrous metals, including exploration, mining, and smelting [17]. - The main revenue source is from cathode copper, followed by by-products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals [17]. - The company has a total copper resource reserve of 470,000 tons, with the Pulang Copper Mine accounting for 60% of this reserve [3][24]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 201.8 billion, 209 billion, and 209 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.297 billion, 2.412 billion, and 3.912 billion yuan [3]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15, 0.99, and 1.61 yuan, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a reasonable valuation range of 18.4 to 20.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential premium of 15% to 29% over the current market value [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US GDP in the second quarter had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.8%, a significant increase from the revised value of 3.3%, reaching the fastest growth rate in nearly two years, mainly due to unexpectedly strong consumer spending and a decline in imports. The final value of the core PCE price index was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the export ban on gasoline resellers and producers until the end of the year, except for supplies under inter - governmental agreements [2]. - As of the week ending September 25, the production of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks, the apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks, and the social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 206.46 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for rebar was 220.44 million tons, an increase of 10.41 million tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 4.96% [2]. - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the daily price limit range for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, for polysilicon futures contracts to 11%, and for lithium carbonate futures contracts to 10%. The margin standard for speculative trading will be adjusted to 12%, and for hedging trading to 11% [2]. - The "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry has led to continuously low processing fees for copper concentrates, which is the most prominent problem in the industry. Industry enterprises should oppose this kind of competition [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot News - US second - quarter GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, core PCE price index final value was raised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2]. - Russia plans diesel and gasoline export bans until the end of the year [2]. - Rebar production increased, factory inventory decreased, apparent demand increased, and social inventory decreased in the week ending September 25 [2]. - Adjustments to the daily price limit range and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [2]. - The copper smelting industry's "involution - style" competition problem was discussed at a meeting, and enterprises were urged to oppose it [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, Shanghai Copper, Silver, Asphalt, PVC [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials (2.78%), Precious metals (31.98%), Oilseeds and oils (10.17%), Soft commodities (2.41%), Non - ferrous metals (20.18%), Coal, coke, and steel (13.66%), Energy (2.95%), Chemicals (11.55%), Grains (1.06%), Agricultural and sideline products (3.26%) [4]. Plate Position - Information about the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days is presented, but specific change values are not clearly summarized here due to the complex data form [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.12%, and annual change of 14.96%; S&P 500 had a daily change of - 0.50%, monthly change of 2.75%, and annual change of 12.86%; and other equity indices had corresponding changes [7]. - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily change of - 0.01%, monthly change of - 0.19%, and annual change of - 1.21%; 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of 0.05% and an annual change of - 0.92%; 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a monthly change of - 0.09% and an annual change of - 0.63% [7]. - **Commodities**: CRB Commodity Index had a monthly change of - 0.82% and an annual change of 1.06%; WTI crude oil had a daily change of 0.38%, monthly change of 1.06%, and annual change of - 10.00%; London spot gold had a daily change of 0.34%, monthly change of 8.38%, and annual change of 42.36% [7]. - **Others**: US Dollar Index had a daily change of 0.61%, monthly change of 0.02%, and annual change of - 9.79%; CBOE Volatility Index had a monthly change of 8.33% and an annual change of - 4.09% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of production at the world's second-largest copper mine has intensified the pressure on global copper supply, while domestic associations have issued a clear signal against "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, leading to increased market activity and investment in copper-related financial products [1] Group 1: Copper Supply and Market Dynamics - The suspension of production at a major copper mine has led to tighter global copper supply [1] - The copper smelting industry is facing ongoing issues with low processing fees due to intense competition, prompting industry associations to oppose such practices [1] - On September 25, the Shanghai copper futures market saw an influx of 7.7 billion yuan in capital, indicating increased market activity [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - There has been a significant increase in capital inflow into index funds with high copper content, reflecting investor interest in copper-related assets [1] - The trading volume in the copper market has noticeably expanded, suggesting heightened investor engagement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a mixed fundamental outlook, with supply concerns heightened by a decrease in copper concentrate processing fees and a production cut forecast from Chile's Codelco, while demand expectations are improving marginally due to the upcoming peak season [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Copper concentrate processing fees have fallen into negative territory, raising supply concerns [1] - Codelco, a major Chilean copper producer, has lowered its annual production forecast, exacerbating supply worries [1] Group 2: Demand Outlook - Social inventory has decreased over the past week, although the absolute level remains low, leading to improved demand expectations as the peak season approaches [1] - The upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is anticipated to drive marginal improvements in demand [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The collective inventory accumulation across LME, COMEX, and SHFE indicates weak terminal consumption during the off-season [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule has dampened market sentiment, limiting financial support for copper prices [1] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The copper market is characterized by a coexistence of tight supply and inventory accumulation, alongside fluctuating macroeconomic drivers, suggesting a short-term oscillation in price [1] - The market is awaiting validation of demand during the peak season and clearer policy signals [1]

Group 1 - Recent domestic copper concentrate processing fees have rebounded, indicating a significant easing of supply tightness due to additional concentrate supply entering the market [2][3] - The domestic refined copper supply for the first half of the year was approximately 7.75 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, driven by production growth [5] - The overall refined copper supply in China is expected to remain sufficient, with domestic smelters maintaining high production levels despite seasonal maintenance [6] Group 2 - Domestic copper social inventory has shown signs of recovery, primarily due to increased imports, while U.S. copper inventory continues to rise [7][8] - The copper price is expected to experience a downward adjustment in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to underlying support factors [9][10] - The demand for copper in the second half of the year is anticipated to remain strong in China, while overseas demand may follow a high-low trend [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][36]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.81 billion yuan, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to reach 2.69 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 43.9% [5][6]. - The company’s copper smelting cost competitiveness is strong, and the second phase of the Mirador project is set to commence production in mid-2025, which will increase the company's copper mining capacity to 310,000 tons, ranking third among A-share copper companies [2][6]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2024, the company is expected to generate a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, with a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan. The operating cash flow is projected to decline to 1.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.1% due to increased raw material inventory and new smelting capacity coming online [5][6]. - The company’s copper production is forecasted to be 155,000 tons in 2024, a decrease of 20,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to power shortages in Ecuador affecting the Mirador copper mine [6][7]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.885 billion yuan, 4.397 billion yuan, and 4.561 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.7%, 52.4%, and 3.7% [2][34]. Segment Analysis - In the smelting segment, the company’s profitability is expected to decline in the second half of 2024, but it will not incur losses. The estimated smelting profit margin is expected to remain above 40% in 2024, despite a general decline in profitability across the industry [2][6]. - The mining segment is facing challenges, with a projected copper output decrease due to operational disruptions. However, the upcoming production from the second phase of the Mirador project is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's mining capacity [2][6].