系统性风险释放
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等待系统性风险释放结束
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 06:03
Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Strategy Weekly Report" dated February 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past two months, there has been a seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties. When non - ferrous metals undergo technical adjustments, anti - involution varieties rebound. After the profit - making effect of non - ferrous metals weakens, other theme markets need to absorb funds from non - ferrous and precious metals. Driven by national policies, low - valuation varieties may be a key focus after the Spring Festival. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition, and anti - involution is likely to be a theme in 2026 [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The commodity market in the past week was centered around the deep adjustment of non - ferrous and precious metals. In a bear market, negative factors are magnified, and positive factors are ignored. Near the Spring Festival, market volatility may decrease [4] - Gold and silver's recent sharp decline is more of a technical adjustment due to large previous gains and a large number of profit - taking positions [4] - The overall valuation of agricultural products, especially oilseeds and oils, is low. The price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. The demand on the feed side lacks strong support, and oils are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still poor, the worst is over, and the price downside is limited. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties. The downside of coal prices is also limited, and supply disturbances may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely. Low - valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non - ferrous sector, and attention should be paid to the progress of anti - involution policies [4] Market Data Tables - The report provides data on the price, inventory, valuation, position, position change, and annualized basis of various commodities, including black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural products [8][10][11] - It also shows the total amount and percentage of capital flow in different sectors such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed - breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] Market Data Charts - The report includes charts on the capital flow of black, olefin, polyester, other chemical, energy, oilseed and oil, non - ferrous, and agricultural products [12][14][16][20][22][27][29]