Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent tensions in the Middle East have driven up the overall valuations of energy and oil chemical sectors. The market shows no short - term signs of easing, and related varieties continue to fluctuate strongly. Coal and coal chemical varieties may see a valuation catch - up in the next stage. The logic of short - term shortage of soybean meal is coming to an end. Attention should be paid to soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and strategies such as inter - period arbitrage can be considered to avoid tail risks caused by the catch - up of far - month contracts [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview (03.16 - 03.20) - High - volatility varieties in the market are mainly crude oil and related products, with the theme centered around the Iran war. Core affected varieties are energy products like crude oil and fuel oil, followed by oil chemical products using crude oil as raw materials, and then oils and fats (bio - diesel concept) and sugar (fuel ethanol concept). On March 20, crude oil and chemical products fell collectively, but coking coal rose sharply on the Friday night session, driving up the overall valuation of coal chemical products [5] - For non - ferrous metals, copper and silver trade on the inflation expectations brought by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, disrupting the global interest - rate cut logic, and some countries may raise interest rates. Non - ferrous and precious metals are under short - term pressure, but silver remains strong in the medium - to - long - term due to positive factors such as AI and photovoltaics [5] - In the agricultural products sector, the Middle East situation has led to an increase in European soybean meal feed prices, and changes in Brazil's soybean export inspection methods have slowed down soybean exports, causing a sharp rise in domestic near - month soybean meal contracts. In the long - run, global soybean supply is sufficient, and there is limited room for continuous long - term growth in far - month soybean meal contracts [5] - In the chemical sector, oil chemical products rise with the increase in crude oil prices. After the oil chemical sector's short - term rally, coal chemical products are expected to catch up in valuation, and the overall valuations of oil and coal chemical sectors need to be aligned [5] - In the black sector, weak demand persists, and rebar is generally weak. Considering the energy attribute of coal, the valuation catch - up of coking coal is reasonable [5] 2. Key Variety Term Structure - In the short - term, oil chemical products show signs of pressure, while coal chemical products show signs of catch - up. The problem of Brazil's soybean export obstruction may be coming to an end, and attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal [6] 3. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flows**: Total capital flow is - 22.141 billion yuan, with precious metals at - 8.546 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals at - 6.141 billion yuan, black metals at 0.22 billion yuan, energy at 1.67 billion yuan, chemicals at - 0.49 billion yuan, feed and breeding at - 0.156 billion yuan, oils and fats at - 0.277 billion yuan, and soft commodities at - 0.684 billion yuan. The corresponding percentage changes are - 39.5%, - 44.2%, - 40.6%, 0.5%, 4.5%, - 12.1%, - 5.7%, - 6.1%, and - 27.3% respectively [10] - **Black and Non - Ferrous Weekly Data**: The table shows price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. [10] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: The table provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, etc. [12] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: The table presents price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for agricultural products, such as pigs, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, etc. [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the chemical sector has risen due to the Middle East situation, with a significant increase in volatility of relevant varieties and full manifestation of risk premium. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of chasing high prices. The change in the inspection method of Brazilian soybean exports may drive the shortage expectation of domestic near - month contracts in the short term, but the supply is sufficient in the medium and long term. Therefore, both the chemical and feed sectors are expected to be strong in the short term and oscillate downward in the medium and long term [2][5] - The current market faces two major themes: the short - and medium - term tension in the Middle East situation, which causes price increases of crude oil and chemical varieties and may lead to economic recession due to inflation expectations; and the anti - involution theme, which is a long - term domestic policy. It is recommended to focus on the Middle East situation in the short and medium term and promote the implementation of anti - involution policies in the long term [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - The recent market hotspot is the theme market centered around the Iran war, with the market mainly involving crude oil and chemical products. Raw material shortages have led to the expectation of production device shutdowns and load reductions in downstream chemical products, affecting varieties such as caustic soda, PVC, and plastics. Due to the unpredictability of the war development path and high volatility of relevant varieties, chasing up is not recommended [4] Commodity Analysis Chemicals - The sharp rise in crude oil prices has affected downstream chemicals such as olefins and aromatics through cost - end increase and raw material shortage. In addition to short - term price increases caused by raw material shortages, the long - term demand negative feedback due to inflation - induced stagflation and economic recession should also be considered. The chemical sector is strong in the short term and is expected to oscillate downward in the medium and long term [4] Agricultural Products - The change in the inspection method of Brazilian agricultural product exports has slowed down soybean exports, causing a significant increase in the near - month contract of domestic soybean meal. Tension in the Middle East has increased freight rates and caused fuel oil shortages, which may lead to poor global soybean transportation and drive up the price expectation of domestic soybean meal. However, in the medium and long term, the global soybean supply is sufficient, and with the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic pig industry, the far - month contract of soybean meal has limited room for continuous large - scale increases [4] Precious Metals - Inflation expectations have disrupted the US interest - rate cut rhythm, reducing the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and precious metals are under short - term pressure. However, in the medium and long term, silver remains strong due to positive factors such as AI and photovoltaic [4] Black Sector - The demand in the black sector continues to be weak, and there is currently no driving contradiction [4] Capital Flow and Data - The table of sector capital flow shows the absolute amount and percentage of capital flow in various sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] - The tables of black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural product weekly data show price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various commodities [8][10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Pay attention to the seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties in the past two months. When non - ferrous metals have technical adjustments, related anti - involution varieties tend to rebound [2][5] - As the near - month contracts of petrochemical and black varieties enter the delivery month, the anti - involution market may gradually emerge [2][5] - With the start of the Middle East war, methanol, crude oil and related varieties may show a strengthening trend [2][5] - After the Spring Festival, the mainstream funds in the commodity market changed their choice of varieties. Soft commodities, feed, and chemical sectors saw a large inflow of funds. Cotton, sugar, rubber, corn, and soybean meal are worthy of attention [4] - Gold and silver rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival, but their volatility decreased significantly, and it will take some time for non - ferrous metals and precious metals to oscillate and consolidate, increasing the trading difficulty [4] - Protein feed in the agricultural products sector is difficult to enter a bull market. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and the high yields in Brazil and Argentina, combined with the anti - involution expectation of domestic pigs, may lead to a downward adjustment in demand, so soybean meal and rapeseed meal have limited room to strengthen [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still not good, the worst is over, and the price decline is limited. The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have driven some chemical products to strengthen. The local war conflict between Iran and Israel may drive the strengthening of crude oil, methanol, and precious metals, while OPEC may accelerate production increase, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high in the medium term [4] - As the coking coal 03 contract enters the delivery month, the support price of coking coal is further clarified. Under the anti - involution background, the downward space of coal is also limited. Disturbances in the internal and external supply may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely [4] - The anti - involution theme market in 2026 may be inevitable, and the timing depends on the implementation of local policies in each province [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Capital Flow - After the Spring Festival, funds flowed into soft commodities, feed, and chemical sectors. The total capital flow was 18.174 billion yuan, with 3.947 billion yuan in precious metals, 9.005 billion yuan in non - ferrous metals, 2.056 billion yuan in black metals, 913 million yuan in energy, 2.813 billion yuan in chemicals, 2.059 billion yuan in feed and breeding, 2.189 billion yuan in oils and fats, and 2.506 billion yuan in soft commodities [4][8] Black and Non - Ferrous Metals Weekly Data - The report provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 17.4%, and the inventory percentile is 100.0% [8] Energy and Chemical Weekly Data - It includes price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 17.8%, and the inventory percentile is 64.4% [10] Agricultural Products Weekly Data - The data of price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 8.9%, and the inventory percentile is 100.0% [11]

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Strategy Weekly Report" dated February 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past two months, there has been a seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties. When non - ferrous metals undergo technical adjustments, anti - involution varieties rebound. After the profit - making effect of non - ferrous metals weakens, other theme markets need to absorb funds from non - ferrous and precious metals. Driven by national policies, low - valuation varieties may be a key focus after the Spring Festival. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition, and anti - involution is likely to be a theme in 2026 [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The commodity market in the past week was centered around the deep adjustment of non - ferrous and precious metals. In a bear market, negative factors are magnified, and positive factors are ignored. Near the Spring Festival, market volatility may decrease [4] - Gold and silver's recent sharp decline is more of a technical adjustment due to large previous gains and a large number of profit - taking positions [4] - The overall valuation of agricultural products, especially oilseeds and oils, is low. The price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. The demand on the feed side lacks strong support, and oils are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still poor, the worst is over, and the price downside is limited. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties. The downside of coal prices is also limited, and supply disturbances may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely. Low - valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non - ferrous sector, and attention should be paid to the progress of anti - involution policies [4] Market Data Tables - The report provides data on the price, inventory, valuation, position, position change, and annualized basis of various commodities, including black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural products [8][10][11] - It also shows the total amount and percentage of capital flow in different sectors such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed - breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] Market Data Charts - The report includes charts on the capital flow of black, olefin, polyester, other chemical, energy, oilseed and oil, non - ferrous, and agricultural products [12][14][16][20][22][27][29]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been signs of adjustment in non-ferrous varieties, with selling pressure emerging at higher levels. The strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals and precious metals is essentially driven by the new economic logic, specifically the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new energy and AI economies. However, their valuations are slightly high. The anti-involution logic of low-valuation varieties is gradually advancing. The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti-involution may play a role in the theme market in 2026 [2][5] - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week still revolved around non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices rose, risks also accumulated, and exchanges at home and abroad introduced corresponding measures to control risks. After the decline of the non-ferrous hot spots, the anti-involution theme may be able to take over [4] Summary by Directory Market Overview - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week centered on non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices increased, the risks also grew, and exchanges at home and abroad took steps to manage risks. The market's hot money may look for the next theme market [4] Variety Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Gold coins have been falling continuously in recent months, breaking below the 50 mark, and gold has shown continuous stagnant growth, so adjustments need to be watched out for [4] - **Agricultural Products**: It is rumored that the initial agreement on Sino-Canadian trade was reached on Friday, and the tariff on rapeseed may be lowered. The market has already priced in this expectation, causing rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to open significantly lower on Friday night. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support around 1000 for US soybeans is still effective [4] - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products is at the limit [4] - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downward space for coal is also limited, and the supply guarantee market is coming to an end [4] Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital was 8.809 billion. The precious metal sector had 9.738 billion, a decrease of 1.862 billion in the non-ferrous sector, an increase of 1.281 billion in the black sector, a decrease of 189 million in the energy sector, a decrease of 213 million in the chemical industry, an increase of 281 million in the feed breeding sector, an increase of 1.308 billion in the oil and fat sector, and a decrease of 587 million in the soft commodity sector [9] - **Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: It includes the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold [9] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt [11] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12] Graphs - There are graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, oil and fat varieties, energy varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non-ferrous plate varieties [13][15][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market currently revolves around two major themes: the strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals, driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies; and the anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties, which is gradually advancing. In 2026, the anti-involution theme may play a significant role in the market [2][5] - The overall volatility of the commodity market has increased this week. Adjustments were mainly affected by events such as the anti-monopoly of polysilicon and the cancellation of export tax rebates for some commodities, but this will not affect the anti-involution process [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Theme Analysis - The strong upward trend of non-ferrous and precious metals is essentially driven by the demand logic of related commodities in the new energy and AI economies. The anti-involution logic of low-valued varieties is gradually advancing, with the glass production showing an obvious decline, and the current daily melting volume at 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015 [2][5] Weekly Market Review - **Precious Metals**: Gold has shown a divergence and stagnant rise recently, and the gold-silver ratio is at a historically low level. Copper, aluminum, nickel and other metals have strong trends, and after a brief technical adjustment last week, they have strengthened again [4] - **Agricultural Products**: The overall trend is still expected to be volatile, with limited downside space but lacking the fundamental elements for a continuous upward trend. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support for US soybeans above 1000 is still effective [4] - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, it will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector, which is a key area. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and PTA has set an example, and other varieties may follow. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The supply guarantee market is coming to an end. The supply guarantee is a short-term logic, while anti-involution is a more long-term logic [4] Data Tables - **Table of Plate Capital Flows**: The total capital flow is 56.114 billion yuan. The capital flows of precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed breeding, oilseeds, and soft commodities are 2.326 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 4.278 billion yuan, 958 million yuan, 2.506 billion yuan, 2.745 billion yuan, 3.683 billion yuan, and 1.241 billion yuan respectively [9] - **Table of Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties [9] - **Table of Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties [11] - **Table of Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent continuous differentiation and decline in the market are mainly due to the price reduction of coal chemical products following the coal price drop. These products have an oversupply situation, and market funds have pushed the bearish sentiment to the extreme, leading to a collective decline of coal chemical related varieties. However, the valuation of coal chemical products is low, and there is a possibility of a rebound at any time. Although the coking coal price has been falling recently, the contradiction cycles are different. Coal supply guarantee is a short - term logical driver, while anti - involution is a long - term logic. Low - valued long - term positions can be considered [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Condition Review - The commodity market continued the differentiation trend of last week. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals remained strong, while black and chemical varieties were weak, with the 01 contract being pushed to the extreme. Copper, aluminum, and silver showed a strong upward trend due to supply shortages, but the gold trend deviated and requires caution. Agricultural products showed a回调 trend. Regarding soybeans, short - term selling pressure may exist as China's annual purchase of 1.2 billion tons cannot fundamentally change the global supply - demand pattern. After the domestic soybean meal adjustment is in place, low - buying opportunities can be sought. For palm oil, the high inventory in Malaysia has put pressure on it. In the energy and chemical sector, the continuous decline of domestic coal prices under the winter - spring supply guarantee policy has brought selling pressure to coal chemical products. However, the valuation of chemical products has reached the limit, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, with a possible rebound at any time. In the black sector, under the background of coal supply guarantee, coking coal and coke led the overall valuation of the black sector to decline. The market priced in the news of export control on some steel products on Friday night, which is slightly bearish overall. But it is believed that coking coal is unlikely to return to the price level in early July [4]. Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is - 0.86 billion. Precious metals have a capital inflow of 2.781 billion (34.4%), non - ferrous metals 0.987 billion (11.5%), black metals - 2.224 billion (- 49.6%), energy and chemicals - 0.823 billion (- 25.6%), feed and breeding - 1.335 billion (- 64.1%), oils and fats - 0.241 billion (- 5.4%), and soft commodities 0.598 billion (36.0%) [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It includes price, inventory, valuation, position, open interest change, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 20.0%, inventory percentile is 98.5%, and valuation percentile is 0.0% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar to the above, it provides data for energy and chemical products like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 0.0%, inventory percentile is 95.1%, and valuation percentile is 32.9% [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It contains data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 9.9%, inventory percentile is 100.0%, and valuation percentile is 63.2% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent continuous decline in the market is mainly driven by the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee policy. Coal chemical varieties have followed the downward trend, but their valuations are low, so short - selling is not cost - effective. The supply guarantee is a short - term logical driver, while anti - involution is a long - term logic. The oilseeds and oils of agricultural products are expected to remain volatile. China's purchase of 12 million tons of soybeans this year cannot change the global oversupply situation of soybeans. After the current adjustment, two investment ideas can be considered: low - buying of strong varieties after adjustment and technical rebound trading of oversold varieties [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Market View Summary - The commodity market continued to diverge this week. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals were strong, while black and chemical varieties were weak. The 01 contract was pushed to an extreme. Copper, aluminum, and silver were in a main - rising wave due to supply shortages, but the gold trend deviated and required caution. Agricultural products showed an overall volatile pattern, with short - term selling pressure. After the domestic soybean meal adjusts, it can be considered for low - buying. The rising inventory of Malaysian palm oil has pressured palm oil prices. In the energy and chemical sector, domestic coal prices have continuously declined under the supply guarantee policy, which has also put pressure on coal - related chemical products. In the black sector, coking coal and coke have led the overall decline in valuations, but it is unlikely to return to the price levels in early July [4]. Capital Flow in Different Sectors - The total capital flow was 20.027 billion yuan. The precious metals sector had a capital flow of 1.253 billion yuan (15.5%), the non - ferrous metals sector had 8.545 billion yuan (100.0%), the black metals sector had 218 million yuan (4.9%), the energy and chemical sector had 802 million yuan (25.0%), the feed and breeding sector had 194 million yuan (9.3%), the oilseeds and oils sector had - 772 million yuan (- 17.1%), and the soft commodities sector had 463 million yuan (27.8%) [9]. Weekly Data of Different Commodity Categories - **Black and Non - Ferrous Metals**: For black metals such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc., and non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, and silver, data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, etc., were provided. For example, iron ore had a price percentile of 20.5%, an inventory percentile of 96.1%, and a valuation percentile of 0.0% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Products**: For energy and chemical products like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt, data on price percentile, inventory percentile, etc., were presented. For instance, fuel oil had a price percentile of 0.0%, an inventory percentile of 100.0%, and a valuation percentile of 0.0% [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: For agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil, data on price percentile, inventory percentile, etc., were given. For example, soybean meal had a price percentile of 7.8%, an inventory percentile of 100.0%, and a valuation percentile of 0.0% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent commodity resonance decline has left chemical and black varieties with low valuations, suggesting limited further downside and little value in chasing short positions [2][4][5]. - Despite the continuous decline of coking coal, the overall framework remains within the anti - involution context, so excessive bearishness is unwarranted [2][5]. - Agricultural products are expected to remain in a volatile range, lacking the fundamental basis for a sustained upward trend [2][4][5]. - The temporary increase in palm oil supply does not alter the overall supply - demand logic of the oil and fat sector. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended for this sector [2][5]. - After the current adjustment, it is advisable to consider bargain - hunting for varieties with decent fundamentals, such as the oil and fat and polyester sectors [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Review - The commodity market rebounded this week, driven by technical rebounds of some oversold varieties and the strength of non - ferrous metals and precious metals [4]. - Non - ferrous varieties rebounded after a recent decline. The supply - tight situation maintained their strength. Due to capacity issues in copper mines and electrolytic aluminum, they are expected to remain volatile after the adjustment [4]. - Agricultural products generally followed a volatile pattern. China's purchase of US soybeans could not immediately reverse the global soybean oversupply situation. Chasing the high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal is not recommended. It is better to wait for the adjustment to end and then buy on dips [4]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the expected progress of OPEC and the Russia - Ukraine peace process influenced the upward movement of crude oil prices. However, the demand was weak, and the prices were mainly affected by supply - side factors. Some chemical products had significantly low valuations, making short - chasing less valuable [4]. - In the black sector, coking coal and coke were under pressure due to the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee policy, but their downside was also limited as they were still within the anti - involution framework. The overall valuation of rebar was also low [4]. 3.2 Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flows**: The total capital flow was - 8.919 billion yuan, with precious metals seeing an inflow of 3.569 billion yuan (44.2%), non - ferrous metals 2.907 billion yuan (49.2%), and other sectors showing different levels of inflow or outflow [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: The table presented price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, gold, and copper [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar data was provided for energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: The data covered price, inventory, etc. for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].

Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, the commodity market has witnessed a resonance decline. The coal price has dropped due to supply guarantees, and the expectation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has driven down the prices of precious metals and crude oil. Under this background, the energy and chemical sectors, as well as precious metals, have led the decline [2][5]. - Coking coal remains within the anti - involution framework, and shorting it too aggressively is not advisable. Crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, so shorting should be done with caution. The oilseeds and oils sector is expected to fluctuate and does not have the ability to rise continuously [2][5]. - After the current adjustment, some varieties with good fundamentals, such as the oil and polyester sectors, can be considered for rebound trading. Alternatively, selling deep - out - of - the - money put options can be considered [2][5]. Market Conditions Summary General Market Conditions - This week, the commodity market as a whole has shown a continuous weakening trend, with a resonance decline across various sectors, including agricultural products [4]. Sector - specific Conditions - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Non - ferrous metals have fallen from high levels, with aluminum and nickel leading the decline, which is a manifestation of their financial attributes against the backdrop of the continuous weakening of precious metals. However, due to capacity issues in copper mines and electrolytic aluminum, the market is expected to fluctuate after the adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans this year cannot solve the problem of oversupply of US soybeans. The global soybean price does not have an environment for continuous increase. It is not recommended to chase high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal. Instead, investors should view the market from a fluctuating perspective and wait for the adjustment to end before considering buying at low prices [4]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Under the expectation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have continued to weaken. Coupled with the decline in domestic coal prices, the energy and chemical sector as a whole is under pressure. However, the valuations of varieties such as methanol and PVC are significantly low, and the value of shorting is limited [4]. - **Black Sector**: Against the background of the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee, coking coal has shown weakness, but its downward space is limited and remains within the anti - involution framework. The overall valuation of rebar is also low [4]. Data Tables Capital Flow in Sectors - The total capital flow is - 10.83 billion yuan, with - 4.139 billion yuan in precious metals, - 5.096 billion yuan in non - ferrous metals, 0.049 billion yuan in the black sector, 0.13 billion yuan in the energy sector, - 0.298 billion yuan in the chemical sector, - 0.44 billion yuan in the feed and breeding sector, - 0.812 billion yuan in the oilseeds and oils sector, and 0.204 billion yuan in the soft commodity sector. The corresponding percentage changes are - 29.5%, - 51.3%, - 86.2%, 1.1%, 8.7%, - 9.3%, - 21.1%, - 18.0%, and 12.3% respectively [9]. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. [9] Weekly Data of Energy and Chemical Products - Similar data is provided for energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. [11] Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc., are presented [12]