期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 17 日 延续分化 本周主要观点： 商品近期的行情特征，大部分的品种都不具有趋势延续性， 可能会有几个局部品种走出趋势，但是，主流板块（黑色、能 化、农产品等）依然处于震荡格局。面对这种局面，可以考虑用 期权工具或者期货套利策略，避免用单边趋势策略（胜率偏 低）。本身市场波动率就不高，期权可以考虑卖出近月深度虚值 期权，以赚取时间价值。可以关注：一是持续背离结构的品种； 二是下跌增仓放量且抗跌的品种。近期面临移仓，跨月反套策略 要谨慎。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 延续分化 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 17 日 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场整体呈现震荡格局，K线基本上是阴线和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The market pattern shows signs of being at the end of its strength. Whether it's non-ferrous metals, weak industrial products, or some agricultural and sideline products (such as US soybeans, eggs, and pigs), their fundamental data has been fully traded and priced. Futures prices are based on future dynamic fundamentals rather than long - standing static fundamentals. Two types of varieties can be focused on: those with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase in position, volume during a decline and are resistant to falling [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - After the supplementary decline in the market, some industrial products are at the end of their decline. For example, alumina has low trading volume, small market divergence, and reduced price volatility; glass has large intraday position - increase and decrease amplitudes but limited price fluctuations, indicating strong resistance to decline and tenacious resistance from long - positions. Static fundamental data of these varieties has been poor for a long time and has been fully digested by prices. Using static fundamentals for strategy deduction may yield mediocre results [4]. - Recently, polyolefin varieties have experienced supplementary declines. In the context of weak macro - demand, methanol suppliers will increase production until profits are low or even in the red. Regarding US soybeans, although China's expected purchase of 12 million tons at the end of the year may drive a price rebound, the reality of oversupply remains, limiting the rebound space. A significant and continuous increase in US soybeans requires a reduction in supply, and there is a high risk of chasing up soybean meal prices [4]. Product Recommendation - Abandon market prediction and rely on strategies. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products push daily reports, recommend trading varieties, and provide exit rules. They can be subscribed to via the path [Nanhua Futures app - Research Report Selection - Strategy Research Selection], and both products offer free trials [5]. Data Tables - **Hot - variety price change ranking**: A table shows the ranking of price changes of popular varieties, but specific data is not presented [7]. - **Sector fund flow**: The total amount of funds has a net outflow of 2.26 billion. Among sectors, precious metals have an outflow of 396 million, non - ferrous metals 394 million, while black metals have an inflow of 804 million, energy 234 million, chemicals 1.571 billion, feed and breeding 1.052 billion, oils and fats 524 million, and soft commodities 526 million. The corresponding percentage changes are - 6.2%, - 4.9%, - 6.7%, 17.9%, 15.7%, 48.6%, 50.5%, 11.6%, and 31.6% respectively [9]. - **Black and non - ferrous weekly data**: The table provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position - change, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, steel rebar, and copper, with data presented in percentile form [9]. - **Energy and chemical weekly data**: Similar to the above, it shows relevant data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural product weekly data**: It presents data for agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12]. Charts - There are multiple charts showing the capital flow of different varieties and sectors, such as black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, and others, but specific chart content is not described in detail [13][15][17]