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煤炭与消费用燃料行业:如何看待煤价和板块反弹持续性?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-10 07:33
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the sustainability of the rebound in coal prices and the sector, indicating that short-term coal prices have dropped to near long-term contract prices, with significant reductions in power plant inventories and increased expectations for supply contraction contributing to a rebound in port coal prices. However, high port inventories still pose downward pressure on prices, and further positive demand-side factors are needed for sustained recovery. Despite current prices not having bottomed out, leading companies in the sector offer attractive value, and a potential dividend allocation trend is expected as the stock registration date approaches [2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.41% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 26th out of 32 industries. The thermal coal index rose by 0.89%, while the coking coal index fell by 1.55% [11][15] Price Trends - As of March 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 688 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2 RMB/ton but a notable rebound on Friday. The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1390 RMB/ton [11][38] Supply and Demand Analysis - As of March 6, the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 556.1 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. Power plant inventories were at 108 million tons, down 1.1% week-on-week, with a usable days count of 19.5 days, down 0.9 days [12][29] Focus on Key Companies - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading companies with stable long-term profits, such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy (A+H). It also highlights transformation targets like China Power Investment and Xinji Energy, as well as investment opportunities in Huabei Mining under a cyclical market [6]