Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand but with marginal improvement. The supply - side pressure reappeared as weekly production and capacity utilization increased. The demand was dull, with downstream industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Although the enterprise inventory decreased, the absolute level was still high, and the profit situation worsened. The core market contradiction lies in the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, the market lacks a clear directional driver and is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern. Key factors to watch include the sustainability of inventory reduction, the strength of downstream demand recovery, and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts. [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 ranged from 1,252 to 1,303 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. As of September 12, 2025, the main contract SA2601 fell 12 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.92%, closing at 1,290 yuan/ton. [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons or 1.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.29%, up 1.07% from the previous value. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.84%, up 2.43% month - on - month, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 77.40%, down 1.97% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.30%, up 0.83% month - on - month. [7][10][12] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons or 1.40% from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 763,000 tons, down 1,100 tons month - on - month, and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.0345 million tons, down 24,500 tons month - on - month. [8][14] - **Shipment**: On September 11, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 785,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44%. The overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points month - on - month. [17] - **Profit**: As of September 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was - 36.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of co - production process soda ash (double - ton) was - 54.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.50 yuan/ton. [20][24] 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry**: As of September 11, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, a 0.38% increase from the 4th. The weekly output was 1.1212 million tons, a 0.38% month - on - month increase and a 4.49% year - on - year decrease. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes or 2.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days were 26.3 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period. [28][29] 3.4 Spot Market Situation - Domestic soda ash mainstream market prices were mostly stable, with only a few regions showing price changes. For example, the price of light soda ash in the northwest region decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 2%, and the price of heavy soda ash in the northwest region also decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 2%. The price of float glass increased by 8 yuan/ton or 0.69%, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 71 yuan/ton or 3.30%. [37][38][39] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - **Analysis**: The soda ash market last week was characterized by weak supply and demand with marginal improvement. The core contradiction was the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, the market is expected to continue oscillating. [40] - **Operation Suggestions**: - **Single - side**: In the short term, pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities after a sharp price decline, but be cautious and set strict stop - losses. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: For hedging, consider constructing a bear spread strategy. [40]