Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a volatile operation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,395 yuan/ton, the basis is - 115 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,400 yuan/ton to 1,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%; the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.17% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 5. Fundamentals - Supply - Soda ash production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Soda ash operating rate and production capacity: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally; the weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - Soda ash industry production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamentals - Demand - Soda ash sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [23]. - Soda ash downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate over the years [36].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1300元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1253元/吨，基差为47元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存167.68万吨，较前一周减少2.06%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 2、中美 ...