Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, with the short - term expected to be mainly in a volatile operation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level in the same period [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,395 yuan/ton, the basis is - 115 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high in the same period; heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass production has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,400 yuan/ton to 1,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%; the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from - 120 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.17% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 5. Fundamentals - Supply - Soda ash production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - Soda ash operating rate and production capacity: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally; the weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19]. - Soda ash industry production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production of 1 million tons [20]. 6. Fundamentals - Demand - Soda ash sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [23]. - Soda ash downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 7. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 8. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate over the years [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1253 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 47 yuan, with a 38.24% increase compared to the previous value. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.57%, and the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.52% [5]. Factors Affecting Soda Ash Positive Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations has been made [4]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - soda downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [11]. Soda Ash Production - The weekly production profit of heavy soda ash using the joint - alkali method in East China was 188 yuan/ton, and the profit using the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, which is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous production - launch plans for soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 60 tons [22]. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash was 54.23% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.34%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Soda Ash Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 84.40 tons, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the operating rate was 78.20%, the net import was - 114 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [34].