截至2026年1月9日当周，纯碱期货主力合约收于1228元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持217876手。 消息面回顾： 本周(1月5日-1月9日)市场上看，纯碱期货周内开盘报1205元/吨，最高触及1277元/吨，最低下探至1170元/吨，周度涨跌幅达1.57%。 截至1月8日，国内纯碱厂家总库存157.27万吨，较上周三增加16.44万吨，涨幅11.67%。其中，轻质纯碱83.65万吨，环比增加10.43万吨；重质纯 碱73.62万吨，环比增加6.01万吨。去年同期库存量为147.08万吨，同比增加10.19吨，涨幅6.93%。较周一增加6.43万吨，涨幅4.26%。 本周行业开工率提升4.43%，纯碱产量提升8.11%。阿拉善二期二线已点火，后续供应仍有提升空间。 1月8日，江苏井神化工纯碱装置恢复，价格稳定，轻质报价出厂1270元/吨；河南中源化学纯碱装置生产稳定，价格稳定，轻质出厂报价1130元/ 吨承兑，重碱暂不报价。 机构观点汇总： 财信期货：整体来看，纯碱需求受浮法玻璃产量下降拖累，光伏玻璃短期难放量，需求增速或为负增长状态。受益于碳酸锂产能扩张及出口改 善，轻碱需求有望增长。但由于纯碱产 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 市场分析 玻璃方面：本周玻璃主力合约2605震荡上涨，现货方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，国内浮法玻璃市场周均 价1082元/吨，环比下跌8.16元/吨，成交重心下移。 供应方面：本周浮法玻璃企业开工率73.65%，环比减少0.34%，产能利用率77.42%，环比减少0.14%， 浮法玻璃日融量15.45万吨，环比减少0.39%。 需求方面：本周浮法玻璃市场需求环比改善，玻璃产销恢复，下游按需采购为主。 库存方面：本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5862.3万重箱，环比增加0.11%。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然玻璃已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度 明显不足，库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间，库存继续大幅增长。因此短期在春节后旺季预期的背景 下，期货维持升水，然而一旦预料落空，叠加高库存压制，价格将面临下行风险，后期关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面：本周纯碱主力合约2605震荡上涨，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供应方面：据隆众资讯最新数据，本周纯碱产能利用率81.65%，环比减少1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-23 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利空： 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1115元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1169元/吨，基差为-54元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.93万吨，较前一周增加0.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 1、23年以来 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1100元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1103元/吨，基差为-3元，期货升 水现货；中性 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.43万吨，较前一周减少2.88%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate and move downward in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - The fundamentals show that the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is - 32 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 153.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main force is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Lithium**: Equipment problems lead to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the main basis is - 32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.57% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 80.08%, and the weekly output is 69.82 million tons, including 38.31 million tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new production capacity has been added or is planned to be added, with a total planned addition of 1570 million tons and an actual addition of 920 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 108.16% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 million tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [26]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 153.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity is 3930 million tons, the output is 3650 million tons, the apparent supply is 3536 million tons, the total demand is 3379 million tons, and the supply - demand difference is 157 million tons [34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1176元/吨，基差为-31元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.74万吨，较前一周减少3.47%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - The fundamentals show that the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is - 32 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 1587,400 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Lithium Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a high level in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1177 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 32 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.09%, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe has increased by 0.44%, and the main basis has decreased by 11.11% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 698,200 tons, of which 383,100 tons is heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.16% [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [26]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash plants is 1587,400 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2022, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2023, the supply - demand difference was 110,000 tons. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is expected to be 157,000 tons [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate and move downward mainly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventories are at historical highs, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - The basis is - 36 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, bearish [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, bearish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are decreasing, bearish [2]. - Overall, the short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be mainly in a fluctuating and downward trend [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at historical highs [4]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1175 | 1140 | - 35 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1140 | - 36 | | Change Rate | 0.09% | 0.00% | 2.86% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is - 221.5 yuan/ton, at historical lows [16]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80% [19]. - The weekly soda ash production is 720,900 tons, including 396,200 tons of heavy soda ash, at historical highs [21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 billion tons, and 100 million tons have been actually commissioned in 2025 [22]. 3.7 Fundamentals - Demand - The weekly soda ash production and sales rate is 100.93% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,100 tons, and the operating rate is 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Inventory National soda ash plant inventories are 1.5874 million tons, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The historical supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the growth rates of various indicators [36].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1175元/吨，基差为-35元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存164.44万吨，较前一周减少3.68%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 纯碱早报 2025-11-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current soda ash market sentiment is poor, and prices may run weakly. However, the absolute valuation of soda ash is not high. As the load and inventory gradually decline, the room for further price decline may be limited [6]. - The improvement in the light soda ash market and the decline in soda ash load have partially alleviated the downward trend of the near - term contract, but the continuous weakness on the demand side may suppress the driving force for prices to continue to strengthen. The impact of the main contract roll - over on the price spread should be monitored, and in the short term, it is more likely to continue the volatile adjustment [10]. - In the medium - term expansion cycle, low industry profits may become the norm due to the continuous rise in costs [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - This week, the main 01 contract of soda ash weakened and fell below the recent phased low, with the price center of gravity moving down again. As of Thursday's close, the 01 contract of soda ash finally closed at 1,158 yuan/ton [6]. Spot Market - Recently, the price of light soda ash has been relatively firm, while the price of heavy soda ash has continued to be weakly stable, with downstream demand mainly for rigid restocking. As of Thursday, the closing price of the 2601 contract of soda ash was 1,158 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,210 - 1,320 yuan/ton, about 1,260 - 1,320 yuan/ton in East China, and about 1,230 - 1,320 yuan/ton in Central China. The market price of light soda ash in East China is 1,180 yuan/ton, about 1,250 yuan/ton in North China, and about 1,150 yuan/ton in Central China [8]. Basis and Spread - In terms of basis, the basis of the 01 contract in each region has strengthened month - on - month. As of Thursday, the basis of the 01 contract of heavy soda ash in North China was about 142 yuan/ton, and about 42 yuan/ton in Central China. In terms of spread, as of Thursday, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts of soda ash was - 74 yuan/ton, with a narrow month - on - month adjustment [10]. Production Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate continued to decline compared with last week. As of November 20, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of domestic soda ash was about 82.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the utilization rate of ammonia - soda production capacity was about 89.77%, a decrease of 1.08% compared with last week; the utilization rate of combined - soda production capacity was about 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12]. Production and Shipment - In terms of production, as of November 20, the soda ash output was about 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons. Among them, the output of light soda ash was about 324,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was about 396,200 tons, a decrease of about 14,700 tons. In terms of shipment, as of November 20, the shipment volume of domestic soda ash enterprises was about 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was about 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79% [15]. Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash continued to improve month - on - month, and the apparent demand for light soda ash continued to rise month - on - month [17]. Glass Industry - The daily output of float glass decreased slightly month - on - month. This week, the daily output of domestic float glass was about 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous period; the weekly output of float glass was about 1,110,200 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 79.03%, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous period. As of November 20, the in - production capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass was about 89,380 tons per day, unchanged from last week; the current capacity utilization rate was about 68.35%. This week, the kiln - blocking volume was relatively stable, with the actual kiln - blocking volume at about 820 tons per day [20]. - The inventory of float glass increased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million heavy boxes, an increase of 56,000 heavy boxes from the previous period, a rise of about 0.09%, equivalent to 27.7 days of inventory, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The factory inventory in Hubei was about 6.14 million heavy boxes, an increase of 250,000 heavy boxes from last week. The inventory of float glass traders in Shahe decreased slightly month - on - month. As of November 20, the inventory of traders in Shahe was about 4.24 million weight boxes, a decrease of 240,000 weight boxes from last week. The factory inventory in Shahe continued to increase month - on - month. As of November 20, the factory inventory in Shahe was about 4.636 million weight boxes, an increase of 225,600 weight boxes from last week [22][26]. - In terms of float glass maintenance, the cold - repair loss increased slightly from the previous period this week. As of November 20, the national float glass loss was about 288,930 tons. In terms of profit performance, the industry profit has continued to weaken month - on - month recently. As of November 20, the weekly average profit of domestic float glass using natural gas as fuel was about - 206.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.14 yuan/ton from the previous period; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was about 26.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.19 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was about 8.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period [31]. Inventory - The inventory of the soda ash industry decreased slightly compared with the data on Monday. As of November 20, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of about 7,300 tons from Monday, a decline of about 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was about 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was about 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons [33]. Industry Profit - The profit of the soda ash industry continued to fluctuate narrowly. As of November 20, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of domestic combined - soda process soda ash was about - 153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.5 yuan/ton from the previous period; the theoretical profit of domestic ammonia - soda process soda ash was about - 38.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous period [36].