1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated and closed higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between the macro - sentiment and the marginal improvement of the fundamentals. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile due to the game between inventory reduction and high - inventory pressure, as well as profit recovery and high supply [36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons or 0.27%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 380,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 428,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 79.55%, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31% [12]. 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,931,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 0.47%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 1,013,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 918,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 15,500 tons or 0.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 196,500 tons or 11.32% [15]. 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 822,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.60 percentage points [17]. 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production soda ash was 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6740%. The profit increased significantly because the raw material cost decreased while the soda ash price was firm and the by - product ammonium chloride price rose [20]. - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The profit improved significantly due to the decrease in raw material cost and the increase in soda ash price [24]. 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons compared with March 5. The weekly output of national float glass from March 6 - 12, 2026 was 1,033,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47% [27]. 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75,849,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3,788,000 weight boxes or 4.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days from the previous period [30]. 3.3 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price first rose and then declined, closing higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between macro - sentiment and marginal improvement of fundamentals. The production of soda ash increased slightly, the operating rate remained high, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, indicating that downstream demand had recovered. The raw material cost decreased, driving the industry profit to recover significantly. However, the absolute inventory level was still at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of loose supply had not been fundamentally reversed. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile [36]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pull - back. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with ample overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1110 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1162 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 52 yuan. The futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The expected full - production time of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line is postponed [3]. - **Negative Factors**: - Main Logic: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, high inventory in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. - Risk Points: The cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level positive factors exceed expectations [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Aspect | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1178 | 1162 | - 1.36% | | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price (yuan/ton) | 1120 | 1110 | - 0.89% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 58 | - 52 | - 10.34% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.25%. The weekly production of soda ash is 774,300 tons, including 414,000 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons, including production lines from Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Lingshan, and Chongqing Xiangyu. - In 2024, the total new capacity was 1.8 million tons, including production lines from Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Jinshan, and Henan Zhongda. - In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons, including production lines from Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali, Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II, Hubei Xindu, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, and Henan Jinshan [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.06% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No specific data on production and demand are provided, but it is mentioned that the production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | **2024E** | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2] - There is a mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry, which has not been effectively improved [5] Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash was 1,178 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main basis was - 58 yuan/ton, up 13.73% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12] 3. Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 160.80 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 97 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 83.25% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 77.43 tons, including 41.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20] 4. Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons, including Anhui Hongsifang, Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, etc [21] - In 2024, the total new capacity was 180 tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuangxing Energy, Henan Jinshan, etc [21] - In 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang, Lianyungang Alkali, etc [21] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [24] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 14.98 tons, and the operating rate was 71.86% [27] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [33] 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, etc. from 2017 to 2024E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and growth rate of the soda ash industry in different years [34] 8. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be favorable**: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is postponed [3] - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Enterprises' production lines are expected to resume, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the output is expected to remain high. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, decreasing terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1181 yuan/ton to 1171 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei decreased from 1125 yuan/ton to 1120 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. The main basis decreased from - 56 yuan/ton to - 51 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.93% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 83.25% [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.43 tons, including 41.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there are plans for new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new capacity is 640 tons; in 2024, it is 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.06% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.98 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 158.11 tons, an increase of 2.39% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuanning Energy is postponed [3]. - **Negative factors**: Enterprises' production lines are expected to resume production, and there is no new maintenance plan, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory levels. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, and overall supply is expected to be abundant. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash factory inventories are at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,125 yuan/ton, the SA2605 closing price is 1,181 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 56 yuan, with the futures price higher than the spot price, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 158.11 million tons, a 2.39% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, indicating a bearish outlook [2][33]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The expected full - production time of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy is postponed [3]. - **Negative Factors**: - Enterprises' production lines are expected to resume, and there is no new maintenance plan, so production is expected to remain high [5]. - The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5]. - The main logic is that soda ash supply is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,190 yuan/ton to 1,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,125 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 65 yuan/ton to - 56 yuan/ton, a change of - 13.85% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 97 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.25%. The weekly production of soda ash is 774,300 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 414,000 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.06% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No specific data provided other than a data source reference [30]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 158.11 million tons, a 2.39% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - The main logic is the mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry, with high supply and falling terminal demand. The inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, and this situation has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1204 yuan/ton to 1203 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.08%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1160 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 44 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.27% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 168.35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 94.50 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.19%. The weekly production was 78.13 tons, including 42.11 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, new production capacity was continuously added. In 2023, the total new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.10 tons, and the operating rate was 71.86% [28]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 154.42 tons, an increase of 1.51% compared to the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The expected full - production time of Phase II of Yuangxing Energy's production line was postponed [3]. - **Negative factors**: Enterprises' production lines were expected to resume production, and there was no new maintenance plan in the near future, so production was expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with overall supply expected to be abundant. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1193 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 yuan, showing that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, while the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans in 2025. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1222 | 1160 | - 62 | | Current Value | 1193 | 1140 | - 53 | | Change Rate | - 2.37% | - 1.72% | - 14.52% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 40 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly production of soda ash is 75.36 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 40.45 tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No detailed data provided in the given content. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a notable increase in inventory and production levels, while demand remains under pressure from the glass industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1228 CNY/ton, with a weekly K-line showing a downward trend and an increase in open interest by 217,876 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. - During the week of January 5-9, the soda ash futures opened at 1205 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1277 CNY/ton and a low of 1170 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.57% [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - As of January 8, domestic soda ash manufacturers had a total inventory of 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons (11.67%) from the previous week. This includes 836,500 tons of light soda ash (up 104,300 tons) and 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (up 60,100 tons) [3]. - The industry operating rate increased by 4.43%, and soda ash production rose by 8.11%. The commissioning of the second line at Alashan is expected to further enhance supply [3]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Futures, soda ash demand is being negatively impacted by a decline in float glass production, with short-term growth in demand expected to be negative. However, demand for light soda ash may increase due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production and improved exports [5]. - The overall production capacity of soda ash is projected to reach 44.6 million tons by 2026, influenced by significant new capacity additions. This high capacity may lead to a production strategy focused on "production as needed," putting pressure on cost lines for ammonia soda production [5]. - Zhengxin Futures suggests that short-term fluctuations in soda ash prices are primarily driven by commodity sentiment, with limited changes in the fundamentals. The market outlook remains cautious, with a focus on potential rebounds in glass production [5].

Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a fluctuating increase this week, with the average price of float glass in the domestic market at 1082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.16 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, indicating a downward shift in transaction focus [2][10] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises is at 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 77.42%, down by 0.14% [2][10] - Daily melting volume of float glass is 154,500 tons, which is a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [2][10] Demand and Inventory - Demand for float glass has improved on a week-on-week basis, with production and sales recovering, primarily driven by downstream purchasing based on demand [3][11] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises across the country is 58.623 million heavy boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.11% [3][12] - The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with insufficient production cuts compared to the declining demand, leading to persistent inventory pressure [3][12] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) also saw a fluctuating increase this week, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by demand amid a cautious market sentiment [4][13] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash is at 81.65%, down by 1.09% week-on-week, with a production volume of 711,800 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [4][13] - Soda ash consumption has slightly declined, with daily melting of float glass decreasing and photovoltaic glass remaining stable [4][14] Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory stands at 1.4385 million tons, reflecting a significant week-on-week decrease of 4.06% [5][14] - The supply-demand contradiction for soda ash has eased, with continuous inventory reduction as enterprises lower production loads [5][14] - Future projections indicate that new projects in soda ash production may impact supply dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of float glass production line changes and new soda ash project developments [5][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term due to high supply, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and an unimproved supply - demand mismatch [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume are in a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,115 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,169 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 54 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,176 | 1,125 | - 51 | | Current Value | 1,169 | 1,115 | - 54 | | Change Rate | - 0.60% | - 0.89% | 5.88% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 6. Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production method is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 7. Demand in Fundamentals - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 8. Inventory in Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].