交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复，且暂无新增检修预期，预计产量延续高位徘徊。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1110元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1162元/吨，基差为-52元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.80万吨，较前一周增加0.44%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震 ...

每日观点 纯碱： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1178元/吨，基差为-58元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.11万吨，较前一周增加2.39%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利空： 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1171元/吨，基差为-51元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.11万吨，较前一周增加2.39%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1125元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1181元/吨，基差为-56元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.11万吨，较前一周增加2.39%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - The main logic is the mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry, with high supply and falling terminal demand. The inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, and this situation has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1204 yuan/ton to 1203 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.08%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1160 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 44 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.27% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 168.35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 94.50 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.19%. The weekly production was 78.13 tons, including 42.11 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, new production capacity was continuously added. In 2023, the total new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.10 tons, and the operating rate was 71.86% [28]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 154.42 tons, an increase of 1.51% compared to the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The expected full - production time of Phase II of Yuangxing Energy's production line was postponed [3]. - **Negative factors**: Enterprises' production lines were expected to resume production, and there was no new maintenance plan in the near future, so production was expected to remain high. The downstream photovoltaic glass reduced production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with overall supply expected to be abundant. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1193 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 yuan, showing that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, while the 20 - day line is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans in 2025. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1222 | 1160 | - 62 | | Current Value | 1193 | 1140 | - 53 | | Change Rate | - 2.37% | - 1.72% | - 14.52% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 40 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.65%. The weekly production of soda ash is 75.36 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 40.45 tons, and the production is at a historical high [18][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: No detailed data provided in the given content. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 157.5 tons, an increase of 0.15% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a notable increase in inventory and production levels, while demand remains under pressure from the glass industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1228 CNY/ton, with a weekly K-line showing a downward trend and an increase in open interest by 217,876 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. - During the week of January 5-9, the soda ash futures opened at 1205 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1277 CNY/ton and a low of 1170 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.57% [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - As of January 8, domestic soda ash manufacturers had a total inventory of 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons (11.67%) from the previous week. This includes 836,500 tons of light soda ash (up 104,300 tons) and 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (up 60,100 tons) [3]. - The industry operating rate increased by 4.43%, and soda ash production rose by 8.11%. The commissioning of the second line at Alashan is expected to further enhance supply [3]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Futures, soda ash demand is being negatively impacted by a decline in float glass production, with short-term growth in demand expected to be negative. However, demand for light soda ash may increase due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production and improved exports [5]. - The overall production capacity of soda ash is projected to reach 44.6 million tons by 2026, influenced by significant new capacity additions. This high capacity may lead to a production strategy focused on "production as needed," putting pressure on cost lines for ammonia soda production [5]. - Zhengxin Futures suggests that short-term fluctuations in soda ash prices are primarily driven by commodity sentiment, with limited changes in the fundamentals. The market outlook remains cautious, with a focus on potential rebounds in glass production [5].

Glass Market Analysis - The main contract for glass (2605) experienced a fluctuating increase this week, with the average price of float glass in the domestic market at 1082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.16 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, indicating a downward shift in transaction focus [2][10] - The operating rate of float glass enterprises is at 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 77.42%, down by 0.14% [2][10] - Daily melting volume of float glass is 154,500 tons, which is a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [2][10] Demand and Inventory - Demand for float glass has improved on a week-on-week basis, with production and sales recovering, primarily driven by downstream purchasing based on demand [3][11] - Total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises across the country is 58.623 million heavy boxes, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.11% [3][12] - The supply-demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with insufficient production cuts compared to the declining demand, leading to persistent inventory pressure [3][12] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The main contract for soda ash (2605) also saw a fluctuating increase this week, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by demand amid a cautious market sentiment [4][13] - The capacity utilization rate for soda ash is at 81.65%, down by 1.09% week-on-week, with a production volume of 711,800 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [4][13] - Soda ash consumption has slightly declined, with daily melting of float glass decreasing and photovoltaic glass remaining stable [4][14] Inventory and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory stands at 1.4385 million tons, reflecting a significant week-on-week decrease of 4.06% [5][14] - The supply-demand contradiction for soda ash has eased, with continuous inventory reduction as enterprises lower production loads [5][14] - Future projections indicate that new projects in soda ash production may impact supply dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of float glass production line changes and new soda ash project developments [5][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term due to high supply, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and an unimproved supply - demand mismatch [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have high production, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume are in a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,115 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,169 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 54 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate downward in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,176 | 1,125 | - 51 | | Current Value | 1,169 | 1,115 | - 54 | | Change Rate | - 0.60% | - 0.89% | 5.88% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 6. Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production method is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 7. Demand in Fundamentals - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 8. Inventory in Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.93 tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, with abundant overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1103 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 3 yuan/ton, down 150.00% from the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 220 yuan/ton [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.74%. The weekly output was 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [17][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 108.16% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, and the operating rate was 74.85% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 149.43 tons, a decrease of 2.88% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed fluctuations. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].