Summary of Soda Ash Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process has the lowest cost at approximately 600 RMB/ton, while the ammonia-soda process costs around 1,300 RMB/ton, and the dual-soda process costs about 1,000-1,100 RMB/ton after considering by-product ammonium chloride [1][4]. Key Points Production Capacity and Structure - The domestic soda ash production capacity structure is changing, with the share of natural soda increasing significantly from 6% in 2023 to over 10% by 2025. The share of ammonia-soda is decreasing, while the dual-soda process is increasing [1][4]. - The industry is highly concentrated, with leading companies holding about 74% of the capacity, primarily located in North China, Central China, and Northwest regions. Major producers include Boyuan Group (660,000 tons, expected to reach 780,000 tons by 2026) and Henan Jinshan (640,000 tons, projected to exceed 800,000 tons after expansion) [1][6]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The price difference between light and heavy soda ash typically ranges from 50-100 RMB/ton, with light soda being produced first and then converted to heavy soda at an additional cost of 50-80 RMB/ton [2]. - The domestic soda ash export volume is expected to reach 2.4-2.5 million tons in 2026, up from 2.2 million tons in 2025, with export prices around 160 USD/ton, closely aligned with overseas prices [2][14]. Supply and Demand Factors - The main upstream raw materials for soda ash production include salt, synthetic ammonia, and limestone, while the main downstream demand comes from photovoltaic glass, float glass, and daily-use glass, accounting for about 60% of total demand [3]. - The soda ash industry is currently facing a slight loss in the dual-soda process and significant losses in the ammonia-soda process, with expected prices in 2026 ranging from 1,000 to 1,350 RMB/ton [2][15]. Future Capacity and Production Trends - New capacity additions are expected to slow down in 2026, with the main production increases coming from previously installed facilities reaching full capacity, such as projects from Boyuan Group and Hubei [5][6]. - The anticipated new capacity includes a 1 million ton project in Tongliao, with the first phase of 500,000 tons expected to be operational in the second half of 2027 [5][6]. Global Market Context - Globally, soda ash capacity is approximately 81.5 million tons, with significant production in the US and Turkey. However, overseas companies are also facing losses, leading to the shutdown of a 1.4 million ton natural soda facility in early 2026 [8][9]. - China accounts for about 50% of global soda ash supply, with production expected to increase from 29 million tons in 2021 to approximately 37.86 million tons by 2025 [9][10]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - Historical price trends show that soda ash prices have fluctuated significantly, with a strong market in 2021 reaching nearly 4,000 RMB/ton. The expected price range for 2026 is between 1,000 and 1,350 RMB/ton, with a volatility space of about 300-350 RMB [19][28]. - The industry is expected to remain in a state of oversupply, with limited upward price movement unless significant supply-side changes occur [23][24]. Environmental and Regulatory Factors - The "anti-involution" policy has minimal impact on the soda ash industry, as overall emissions meet national standards. The ammonia-soda process faces more regulatory scrutiny due to higher emissions [22]. Conclusion - The soda ash industry is undergoing significant changes in production methods and capacity structure, with a shift towards more cost-effective natural soda processes. The market is currently characterized by oversupply and price pressures, with future growth dependent on demand recovery and potential export opportunities.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory levels. It's expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a historical high, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. The risk lies in the lower - than - expected cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and better - than - expected macro - level positive factors [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,224 yuan/ton to 1,204 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.63%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1,180 yuan/ton to 1,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69%. The main basis remained unchanged at - 44 yuan/ton [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method was - 168.35 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method was - 94.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] Soda Ash Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.19% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 78.13 tons, including 42.11 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new production capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [25] - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.10 tons, with an operating rate of 71.86% [28] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory at factories was 154.42 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week, running above the five - year average [34] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1239 yuan/ton to 1212 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.18%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1185 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The main basis changed from - 54 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.70% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - alkali method is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production method is - 40 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.65%, and the weekly output is 75.36 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.45 tons, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass has weakened [4]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 157.27 tons, an increase of 11.67% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Likely to be negative**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and the industry output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a notable increase in inventory and production levels, while demand remains under pressure from the glass industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1228 CNY/ton, with a weekly K-line showing a downward trend and an increase in open interest by 217,876 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. - During the week of January 5-9, the soda ash futures opened at 1205 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1277 CNY/ton and a low of 1170 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.57% [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - As of January 8, domestic soda ash manufacturers had a total inventory of 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons (11.67%) from the previous week. This includes 836,500 tons of light soda ash (up 104,300 tons) and 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (up 60,100 tons) [3]. - The industry operating rate increased by 4.43%, and soda ash production rose by 8.11%. The commissioning of the second line at Alashan is expected to further enhance supply [3]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Futures, soda ash demand is being negatively impacted by a decline in float glass production, with short-term growth in demand expected to be negative. However, demand for light soda ash may increase due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production and improved exports [5]. - The overall production capacity of soda ash is projected to reach 44.6 million tons by 2026, influenced by significant new capacity additions. This high capacity may lead to a production strategy focused on "production as needed," putting pressure on cost lines for ammonia soda production [5]. - Zhengxin Futures suggests that short-term fluctuations in soda ash prices are primarily driven by commodity sentiment, with limited changes in the fundamentals. The market outlook remains cautious, with a focus on potential rebounds in glass production [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1177 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1120 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.34%. The main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.51% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [23] 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [26] - The daily melting capacity of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [29] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historical high for the same period [35] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the industry's effective production capacity, output, and apparent supply generally showed an upward trend, but there were fluctuations in the supply - demand gap [36] 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to reduced maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3] - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2025, there were still large - scale production plans, and the industry output was at a historical high. The demand for soda ash decreased due to the production reduction of photovoltaic glass [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.04% higher than the previous week at 1,200 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. Supply is expected to remain abundant next week, with an estimated weekly output of 720,000 tons and an operating rate of 83% due to fewer maintenance enterprises. Downstream demand is tepid, mainly on a need - by - need basis, and some downstream inventories are high. The market sentiment is weak with insufficient drivers. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased. As of December 25, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,176 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.04%. The low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe increased from 1,125 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.89%. The main base difference increased by 27.45% from - 51 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. [13] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low. [16] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%. The weekly output was 711,900 tons, including 385,600 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - alkalinity rate was 54.16%. [19][22][25] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons. [26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Output Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - output ratio of soda ash was 108.54%. [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 154,500 tons, with an operating rate of 73.89%. [32] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average. [38] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. [39] 3.6 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow. [5] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production - launch plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. [6] 3.7 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. [7]

Group 1 - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 4.13% [1] - Light soda ash inventory is 735,500 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons week-on-week, while heavy soda ash inventory is 703,000 tons, a decrease of 68,200 tons [1] - On December 25, the price of light soda ash from Jiangsu Kunshan Jinggang decreased to 1,350-1,370 RMB/ton, while Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical's light soda ash price remained stable at 1,300 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - According to Caixin Futures, the demand for heavy soda ash is negatively impacted by the decline in float glass production, with the annual demand growth expected to be slightly negative [3] - Light soda ash demand is anticipated to continue growing due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity and improved exports, although the large base of soda ash production capacity will pressure cost lines [3] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that short-term commodity sentiment is decent, but fundamental changes in soda ash remain limited, with a mid-term trend expected to maintain a bearish outlook amid a supply surplus [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1,170 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term due to weak fundamentals [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: Equipment problems have led to enterprise production cuts for maintenance, resulting in a slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,140 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,135 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Change Rate | 0.00% | - 0.44% | 16.67% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamentals - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 147.60 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 129 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15]. - Operating Rate, Production Capacity, and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.35%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.54 million tons, including 39.78 million tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historically high level [18][21]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with 1 billion tons actually put into production [22]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamentals - Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 106.02% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 157,200 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently experiencing a stable yet fluctuating trend, with prices remaining steady across various regions, but overall market sentiment is cautious due to supply pressures and weak demand [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in North China are stable at 1220-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1160-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In East China, light soda ash prices are between 1200-1620 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are at 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - Other regional prices for light and heavy soda ash remain unchanged, indicating a lack of significant market movement [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The industry is facing a supply surplus due to limited new maintenance and a slight increase in operational load from some facilities [2]. - Downstream enterprises are primarily purchasing based on essential needs, showing low acceptance of high-priced soda ash, leading to a cautious market atmosphere [2]. - The recent performance of new orders from manufacturers has been mediocre, contributing to a lack of strong market support [2]. Price Index Analysis - As of December 10, the light soda ash price index is at 1202.86, remaining unchanged from the previous working day, while the heavy soda ash price index has decreased by 4.29 to 1197.14, reflecting a decline of 0.36% [3]. Futures Market - On December 10, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1123 CNY/ton and closed at 1094 CNY/ton, marking a daily decline of 2.93% [5]. - The market is under pressure due to new capacity coming online and the recovery of previously reduced production facilities, particularly the Alashan natural soda project, which has negatively impacted market sentiment [5]. - The overall industry fundamentals remain weak, compounded by a downturn in the downstream glass market, leading to a cautious trading environment [5]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight increase in soda ash supply due to concurrent maintenance and resumption of production [6]. - Demand remains subdued, with companies primarily maintaining essential purchases, resulting in low trading activity [6]. - The soda ash market is anticipated to remain in a narrow range, with close attention needed on production dynamics and downstream inventory replenishment [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. With high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory above the 5 - year average, the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward pattern [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants are at a high - production level, with the second - phase of Yuanxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,100 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,094 yuan/ton, with a basis of 6 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - **Market trend**: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward movement in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems have caused some enterprises to reduce production for maintenance, resulting in a slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - expansion plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market - **Closing price**: The closing price of the main contract is 1,094 yuan/ton. - **Spot price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,100 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: The main basis is 6 yuan, with a change of - 220.00% [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end market price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 220 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [14]. - **Operating rate and production volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.74%, and the weekly production volume is 703,900 tons, including 381,500 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historically high level [17][20]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [24]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].