9月30日，国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中，纯碱期货主力合约大幅收跌2.26%，报1255.00元/吨。 现货方面，据中财期货介绍，华南地区轻质纯碱均价为1350元/吨，重质纯碱均价为1400元/吨；东北地 区轻质纯碱均价为1350元/吨，重质纯碱均价为1400元/吨，沙河地区重质纯碱均价为1203元/吨。 展望后市，光大期货表示，在新投产能压力下纯碱宽松程度将进一步扩大，但当前基本面对市场影响程 度较弱。后续宏观刺激政策、反内卷及环保等外部题材将和纯碱羸弱的基本面持续博弈，故纯碱期价 上、下方空间都将受限，整体走势弱于玻璃。 基本面来看，建信期货指出，供应高位运行，但库存持续去化，整体偏弱格局未改。纯碱周产由降转升 至77.69，涨至今年以来最高点，环比增长4.19%。纯碱装置运行稳定，无检修消息，后期产量预计进一 步增加。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，玻璃产线冷修数量不变，整体产量不变，依旧底部徘徊，刚需生 产迹象明显，利润回升，主要来自于现货价格上行，预计下周产量继续底部。光伏玻璃走平，对整体纯 碱需求依旧不变，伴随反内卷进程，后续光伏玻璃减产加速，需求有望减弱。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1278元/吨，基差为-88元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

Group 1 - The overall domestic soda ash market is showing a stable yet slightly weak trend, with some regional price declines [2] - In North China, the mainstream price for light soda ash is maintained at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1220-1320 CNY/ton [2] - The supply from Hai Jing Yue He production line has returned to normal, leading to a slight increase in industry supply [2] Group 2 - The light soda ash price index on September 23 is 1184.29, a decrease of 4.29 from the previous working day, representing a -0.36% change [3] - The heavy soda ash price index is 1232.86, down 7.14 from the previous working day, indicating a -0.58% change [3] Group 3 - On September 23, the main futures contract SA2601 opened at 1287 CNY/ton and closed at 1273 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.60% [5] - The futures market is experiencing a weak oscillation pattern, influenced by the low sentiment in the chemical sector and the decline in glass futures prices [5] - Despite some pre-holiday inventory replenishment, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply levels and increasing losses for companies [5] Group 4 - Future supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, with limited maintenance plans, while demand is stable with modest support from pre-holiday stocking [6] - Current manufacturer inventory pressure is not significant, and there is a strong intention to maintain prices, suggesting that future prices will likely oscillate and stabilize [6]

| 规格 | 市场 | 9 月 16 日 | 9 月 17 日 | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1130-1550 | 1130-1550 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1140-1320 | 1140-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000-1200 | -1000-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1200-1310 | 1200-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1360-1430 | 1360-1430 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1300-1400 | 1300-1400 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1240-1320 | 1250-1320 | 10/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1270-1320 | 10/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1280-1350- | 1280-1350 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 1000- ...

Industry Research Summary - Soda Ash Industry Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is characterized by simple processes and limited competition due to resource barriers. The main production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process is favored for its cost advantages, with production costs as low as 500-600 RMB per ton [2][3]. Key Insights - **Natural Soda Process Market Share**: Currently, the natural soda process holds a market share of only 15%, primarily contributed by Boyuan Chemical. This is a significant increase from less than 5% in 2022. Future expansions, such as the Alashan Phase II project, are expected to increase this share [1][3][4]. - **Price Influences**: Soda ash prices are primarily influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than upstream raw material costs. Prices surged during 2020-2021 due to supply shortages but declined in 2022 with new capacity additions. A continued increase in supply pressure is expected to lead to further price declines in 2024-2025 [1][5][11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The main downstream applications for soda ash include flat glass (46%), daily-use glass (20%), and photovoltaic glass (13%). The demand for flat glass is expected to decline due to a weakening real estate market, while photovoltaic glass is projected to be a significant growth area, with a 54% increase in production in 2023 [1][6][7]. Future Projections - **Demand Growth**: Soda ash demand is projected to grow by approximately 2.64% by 2025, with photovoltaic glass contributing the most significant growth rate of 3.9%. The decline in flat glass demand due to real estate market pressures necessitates a focus on photovoltaic and flat glass sectors [7][8]. - **Capacity Expansion**: The industry is expected to see significant capacity expansion, with Boyuan Chemical's Phase I project reaching 5 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 43.5 million tons by the end of 2024. This increase will contribute to rising inventory levels, which may pressure prices [1][9][10]. Inventory and Price Trends - **Current Inventory Levels**: Soda ash inventory is currently high at approximately 1.8 million tons, which poses a significant challenge for price recovery. Future price movements will largely depend on inventory digestion [10][11]. - **Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to stabilize between 1,250 and 1,350 RMB when supply-demand balance is achieved, particularly as higher-cost producers exit the market [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Players**: Boyuan Chemical remains a leading supplier due to its cost advantages. Other companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haohua are also noteworthy as they have secured mining rights for natural soda projects, although their market impact will not be felt until 2027 [13]. Boyuan Chemical faces risks related to its Mengda Mining project, which may affect its stock performance [13].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-17 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1225元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1339元/吨，基差为-114元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.75万吨，较前一周减少1.35%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 一、纯碱期货行情 | 日盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate, production capacity and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry, particularly the soda ash sector, is entering a new downward price cycle due to increased production capacity and other factors, leading to negative profit margins for the industry by 2024 [1][3]. Supply Side - Soda ash production capacity accelerated in 2023, surpassing 40 million tons (up 19.5% year-on-year), with projections to reach 43.45 million tons in 2024, marking a 24.6% increase over two years [4]. - The production volume is also expected to rise, reaching 36.21 million tons in 2024 (up 21.4% year-on-year), the highest growth rate since 2007 [4]. - The structure of production capacity is changing significantly, with the proportion of natural soda ash increasing from 5% in 2022 to 16% in 2024, and further to 19% in the first seven months of 2025 [4]. - Major contributors to this increase include projects from companies like Boyuan Chemical and China Salt Chemical, which leverage the cost advantages of natural soda ash [4]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is primarily driven by the glass industry, with flat glass accounting for 46% of apparent consumption in 2024, translating to 35.96 million tons [2]. - The real estate sector is a significant factor affecting demand, with construction area declining by 12.7% year-on-year in 2024, impacting flat glass demand negatively [5]. - However, automotive glass demand is providing some support, with a 10.5% increase in vehicle production in the first seven months of 2025 [6]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing short-term fluctuations but is expected to maintain long-term growth, with production projected to reach 27.34 million tons in 2024 (up 30.92% year-on-year) [6]. Competitive Landscape - The cost differences among various production methods are significant, with natural soda ash having the lowest unit cost at approximately 1000-1200 RMB/ton in 2024, compared to 1400-1600 RMB/ton for the joint alkali method and 1500-1700 RMB/ton for the ammonia-soda method [6]. - Regions rich in natural soda ash and raw materials, such as Inner Mongolia and Henan, have a clear cost advantage, which is expected to influence the competitive dynamics in the industry [6]. Industry Outlook - The industry is facing pressure to optimize supply, with a focus on phasing out high-cost production methods and controlling low-level capacity expansion [7]. - Demand recovery is anticipated through potential easing of real estate policies and a return to growth in the photovoltaic sector [7]. - Policy guidance is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency standards and promoting the development of green production methods like natural soda ash [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices remaining unchanged across various regions, while demand from downstream sectors is weak, leading to a cautious purchasing strategy [2][5]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in North China are at 1170-1270 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1210-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In East China, light soda ash prices range from 1130-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1260-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - Other regional prices for light and heavy soda ash are also reported, with no significant changes noted [1]. Index Analysis - As of September 3, the light soda ash price index is at 1175.71, and the heavy soda ash price index is at 1231.43, both remaining stable compared to the previous working day [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On September 3, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1267 CNY/ton and closed at 1276 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.24% [5]. - The market is experiencing a slight rebound, but the overall fundamentals remain weak, influenced by factors such as the solar industry's internal competition and potential production halts from major manufacturers [5]. Market Outlook - Future predictions indicate that as production facilities resume operations and fewer companies plan maintenance, market activity may gradually increase [6]. - However, with weak downstream demand and a focus on essential purchases, the soda ash market is expected to continue a stable but weak trend in the short term [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1175元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1276元/吨，基差为-101元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.75万吨，较前一周减少2.27%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张， ...