01 P A R T 纯碱期货 2025.11.24-11.28 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场整体平稳，价格区间保持稳定。供应端因部分装 置检修有所收缩，但市场供应依然充裕。需求端呈现分化态势，轻 碱需求相对平稳，重碱需求持续疲软。煤炭成本上涨及行业亏损为 价格提供支撑，企业稳价意愿较强。市场在弱现实与强成本间博弈， 预计短期维持窄幅震荡。期货方面，纯碱期价震荡下行，主力合约 跌破关键点位。高供应与弱需求的核心矛盾未解，虽然成本支撑存 在，但下游需求疲软及玻璃价格下跌拖累市场情绪，整体缺乏上行 驱动，价格重心下移。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场稳中偏强，轻碱价格小幅上涨，重碱 持稳。供应收缩但需求平稳，成本支撑明显，供过于求 格局下预计延续窄幅整理。期货多空拉锯，短期维持震 荡，预计纯碱2601运行区间1100-1250。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场持稳运行，轻碱需求平稳，重碱疲软。供 应因 ...

投资建议：基于公司业绩表现及主营产品价格价差变化，我们预测2025-2027年公司的归母净利润分别 为14.68、22.18、26.88 亿元，对应当前PE 分别为18.4x、12.2x、10.0x。参考公司5 年历史估值中枢同时 考虑阿拉善二期投产对于公司成长性的贡献，我们给予2026 年15 倍目标PE，对应目标价9.00 元，维 持"强推"评级。 事件：2025Q1-3 公司实现营收86.56 亿元，同比-16.54%；归母净利润10.62 亿元，同比-41.15%；扣非 归母净利润11.28 亿元，同比-37.08%。其中Q3 公司实现营收27.40 亿元，同比/环比分 别-17.04%/-10.11%；归母净利润3.19 亿元，同比/环比分别-46.38%/-20.86%；扣非归母净利润3.84 亿 元，同比/环比分别-34.14%/-5.95%。 主营产品景气低位震荡，拖累三季度业绩。今年以来国内纯碱市场受到下游光伏玻璃及平板玻璃需求低 迷的影响，价格持续下探；尿素则受到新增产能投放及出口阶段性受限的影响，价格承压运行。据百川 盈孚统计，2025Q3 公司主营重质纯碱/尿素/小苏打市场均价分别为1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 博源化工（000683）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 拟收购银根矿业股权，巩固纯碱龙头地位 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 13,264 | 12,260 | 15,354 | 16,260 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.1% | -7.6% | 25.2% | 5.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,811 | 1,468 | 2,218 | 2,688 | | 同比增速(%) | 28.5% | -18.9% | 51.1% | 21.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.72 | | 市盈率(倍) | 15 | 18 | 12 | 10 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 11 月 21 日收盘价 公司研究 纯碱 2025 年 11 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.32% higher than the previous week at 1,226 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week. Supply has narrow fluctuations, and next week's output is expected to increase slightly to 740,000 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Demand from downstream industries is average, and they mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis. As of November 13, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous value. - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous value. - The main basis was - 56 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from the previous value [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [14]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 232 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 84.80%. The weekly output was 739,200 tons, including 410,900 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.54% [20][22][24]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **产销率**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [28]. - **下游需求**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75% [31]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

| 规格 | 市场 | 11月3日 | 11月4日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1130-1600 | 1130-1600 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1110-1300 | 1110-1300 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-1120 | -930-1120 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1170-1310 | 1170-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1300-1400 | 1300-1400 | 0/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1260-1370 | 1260-1370 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1200-1320 | 1200-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1260-1320 | 1260-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1230-1320 | 1230-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-980 | 930-9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.06 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company plans to acquire a 10.6% stake in Yingen Mining, increasing its ownership to 70.6%. This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's growth potential as Yingen Mining operates significant projects in the soda ash sector [12]. - The soda ash market is experiencing a downturn, with prices for key products like heavy soda ash and light soda ash dropping significantly. The average prices for Q1-Q3 2025 were 1,387 yuan/ton and 1,349 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 35.7% and 34.3%, respectively [12]. - The company maintains a strong safety margin and growth potential, with expectations for significant dividends and price elasticity in the future. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.47 billion yuan, 2.23 billion yuan, and 2.57 billion yuan, respectively [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.0% year-on-year and 10.1% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for the same period was 320 million yuan, down 46.4% year-on-year and 20.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Market Conditions - The soda ash industry is facing a prolonged downturn, with prices continuing to decline due to unfavorable supply-demand dynamics. The average prices for Q3 2025 were 1,240 yuan/ton for heavy soda ash and 1,200 yuan/ton for light soda ash, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.0% and 8.7%, respectively [12]. Strategic Moves - The planned acquisition of Yingen Mining is a strategic move to enhance the company's stake in a key subsidiary, which is crucial for future growth. Yingen Mining is responsible for significant production capacities in the soda ash sector, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's financials [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from potential rebounds in the soda ash market, with a focus on energy efficiency and equipment upgrades. The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and a commitment to shareholder returns through dividends [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.49%, and the glass futures dropped by 0.92%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the market's interest - rate cut expectation, the price first rose and then weakened due to the expectation of increased production. The glass market had a similar trend to the soda ash market, but due to the sluggish real - estate sentiment, the decline of glass was more significant than that of soda ash. It is expected that next week, the soda ash price will mainly show a volatile and weakening trend, and the glass price will also face challenges due to supply and demand factors [6]. - For soda ash, the current operation of soda ash plants is relatively stable with no large - scale maintenance plans, and the overall production remains at a relatively high level. New production capacities such as those of Yuangxing Energy Phase II and Yingcheng Xindu Chemical are expected to be put into operation in December, which will further exacerbate the future oversupply situation. The demand from the float glass industry is mainly for daily production needs, and the short - term demand pull from photovoltaic glass is limited. For glass, the supply has shown an upward trend due to the restart of some cold - repaired production lines, but the "coal - to - gas" policy in the Shahe area and the policy of restricting new production capacity may relieve the marginal supply pressure. The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and although the automobile industry provides some support, it cannot offset the negative impact of the real - estate demand decline [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to trade the SA2601 contract in the range of 1200 - 1260, with stop - loss set at 1180 - 1300. For the FG2601 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1130, with stop - loss set at 1060 - 1150 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.49% and glass futures fell 0.92% this week. Soda ash first rose under the interest - rate cut expectation and then weakened due to production increase expectation. Glass followed a similar trend but declined more due to real - estate sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash supply is expected to increase with new capacities coming online in December, and demand is relatively stable with limited short - term pull from photovoltaic glass. Glass supply may face short - term contraction due to policies, and demand from real - estate is weak while the automobile industry provides some support [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade SA2601 in the 1200 - 1260 range with stop - loss at 1180 - 1300, and operate FG2601 in the 1080 - 1130 range with stop - loss at 1060 - 1150 [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: Soda ash spot prices remained flat, and the basis was stable. As of October 30, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1185 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 50 yuan/ton. Glass spot prices weakened, and the basis also weakened but is expected to stabilize in the future. As of October 30, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1048 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 43 yuan/ton [14][19][22]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week. As of October 30, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 144 yuan/ton [24][26] 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Production and Operation**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week. As of October 30, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 86.78% (up 3.3% week - on - week), and the weekly production was 75.76 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week). The number of cold - repaired glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production was stable. The production capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased [28][42][49]. - **Profit and Cost**: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, with negative profits affecting future production. Glass enterprise profits also decreased due to weakening spot prices and increased costs. As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - tonnage joint - soda process was - 180 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 126 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels all decreased [35][40]. - **Inventory and Demand**: Soda ash enterprise inventories decreased slightly due to weak downstream demand and the decline in photovoltaic glass production. Glass enterprise inventories also decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down next week. The downstream deep - processing orders for glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days [53][57][61]

| 规格 | 市场 | 10 月 21 日 | 10月 22 日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1170-1270 | 1170-1270 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1130-1600 | 1130-1600 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1110-1320 | 110-1320 | 0/0 | | | 西北市场 | 930-1140 | -930-1140 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1200-1310 | 1200-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1330-1430 | 1320-1430 | -10/0 | | | 东北市场 | 1260-1370 | 1260-1370 | 0/0 | | 重质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1180-1320 | 1180-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1250-1320 | 1250-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华中市场 | 1240-1350- | 1240-1320 | 0/-30 | | | 西北市场 | 940- ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is operating steadily with a slight downward trend in some regions, as demand remains weak and market participants exhibit cautious purchasing behavior [2]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are maintained at 1130-1600 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1250-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices range from 1110-1320 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1240-1350 CNY/ton [2]. - The price indices for light and heavy soda ash on October 20 are 1160 and 1211.43 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous working day [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market showed a slight fluctuation, with the main contract SA2601 opening at 1214 CNY/ton and closing at 1219 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily change of 0.00% [5]. - The industry is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand situation, with high operating rates and accumulating inventories, leading to significant de-stocking pressure [5]. - The downstream glass market continues to decline, contributing to weak support for soda ash prices [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a gradual recovery in operating rates as previously shut-down facilities restart [6]. - Demand remains soft, with limited new orders and cautious purchasing intentions from downstream enterprises [6]. - If inventory pressures persist, manufacturers may implement discount measures to stimulate sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is maintaining a weak and stable operation with little price fluctuation, indicating a supply surplus and moderate demand [2][5][6]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are stable at 1130-1600 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1250-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - The price index for light soda ash is 1160, unchanged from the previous working day, and the heavy soda ash price index is 1211.43, down 1.43, a decrease of -0.12% [3]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1240 CNY/ton and closed at 1209 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 1.47% [5]. - The market is currently lacking clear directional drivers, with the supply-demand imbalance continuing to exert pressure on prices [5][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains high despite some companies undergoing maintenance, and the overall production capacity is substantial, making it difficult to fundamentally change the supply surplus situation [6]. - Demand from downstream industries, particularly glass, has not shown significant improvement, and companies are primarily adopting a cautious purchasing strategy based on actual needs [2][6]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, with no significant changes anticipated in supply or demand dynamics [6].