今日国内纯碱市场整体延续稳中偏弱格局。截至目前，华北地区轻质纯碱价格在1220-1320元/吨，重质纯碱价格在 1240-1350元/吨；东北地区轻质纯碱价格在1330-1410元/吨，重质纯碱价格在1340-1500元/吨。供应方面，五彩碱业装置 自今日起停车检修，陕西兴化近期亦有检修计划，行业整体供应呈现收缩态势；下游需求波动有限，企业多维持刚需 补库，对市场支撑力度不足；部分厂家采取灵活接单策略，整体市场以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | 规格 | 市场 | 8月25日 | 8月26日 | 日 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻质纯碱 | 华北市场 | 1220-1320 | 1220-1320 | 0/0 | | | 华东市场 | 1150-1460 | 1150-1420 | 0/-40 | | | 华中市场 | 1150-1360 | 1150-1320 | 0/-40 | | | 西北市场 | 1020-1200 | -1020-1200 | 0/0 | | | 西南市场 | 1220-1310 | 1220-1310 | 0/0 | | | 华南市场 | 1 ...

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 3、"反内卷"政策利好情绪消退。 1、主要逻辑：纯碱供给高位，终端需求下滑，库存处于同期高位，行业供需错配格局尚未有效改善。 2、风险点：下游浮法和光伏玻璃冷修不及预期，宏观利好超预期。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1311元/吨，基差为-111元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存191.08万吨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-26 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑， 终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1220元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1337元/吨，基差为-117元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存191.08万吨，较前一周增加0.90%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、23年以来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The supply of soda ash remains at a high level with few alkali plant overhauls; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand has weakened. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -104 yuan, with futures at a premium to spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary 3.2.1 Bullish Factors The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high [5]. - The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5]. - The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1358 yuan/ton | 1230 yuan/ton | - 128 yuan | | Current Value | 1309 yuan/ton | 1205 yuan/ton | - 104 yuan | | Change Rate | - 3.61% | - 2.03% | - 18.75% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia - soda method is - 25.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 41 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [17]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 761,300 tons, including 429,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still planned significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual expected production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.73% [24]. - The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [33]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with prices remaining stable but under pressure due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing behavior from enterprises [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 18, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in various regions is as follows: Northwest at 1050-1200 CNY/ton, Northeast at 1330-1410 CNY/ton. Heavy soda ash prices are 1050-1180 CNY/ton in the Northwest and 1360-1520 CNY/ton in the Northeast [2]. - The soda ash price index on August 18 shows a decline, with the light soda ash index at 1228.57 (down 1.43, -0.12%) and the heavy soda ash index at 1272.86 (down 11.43, -0.89%) [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 18, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1398 CNY/ton and closed at 1386 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.56%. The trading range was between 1370 and 1413 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,398,920 contracts, down by 10,970 contracts [5]. - The futures market is characterized by weak fluctuations, driven by supply-demand imbalances, with manufacturers accumulating inventory and weak downstream demand suppressing price increases [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to a strong supply and weak demand situation, with close attention needed on inventory changes and recovery in downstream demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soda ash market is in a state of high supply and weak demand, with the spot market expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures market to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - The glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with the spot market expected to continue its weak oscillation, and the futures market to be restricted by factors such as high inventory and weak demand. It is advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash futures are in an oscillation phase. The spot market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with the mainstream price of light soda ash at 1060 - 1470 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash at 1060 - 1520 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation, and the futures may remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market was weak last week, with small price fluctuations. The supply first tightened due to enterprise maintenance and then recovered, while the demand remained weak. The market sentiment turned from wait - and - see to cautiously bearish. It was expected that the market would maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and the operating range of soda ash 2601 was 1250 - 1400. It was advisable to wait and see [11]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The supply of the soda ash market is high and the inventory is under pressure, while the demand is weak. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range weakening oscillation in the short term. The operating range of soda ash 2601 is 1300 - 1450. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly soda ash production, weekly soda ash operating rate, weekly light and heavy soda ash inventory, daily soda ash basis, and weekly ammonia - soda process production cost in North China. The multi - empty flow is - 97.4, the capital energy is 76.2, and the multi - empty divergence is 91.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13][16][18][22] Glass Futures Mid - line Market Analysis - The glass is in an oscillation trend. The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market generally fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The futures are also in a weakening oscillation. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [29]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market decreased last week. The demand was weak, and the supply increased after resumption. The market was in a weak oscillation. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150. It was advisable to hold an empty - position and wait and see [32]. - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The price of 5mm float glass in the domestic market fell by 10 - 60 yuan/ton last week. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. The expected operating range of glass 2601 is 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to hold an empty - position and wait and see [33]. Relevant Data Situation - The relevant data include China's weekly float glass production, weekly float glass operating rate, weekly production cost and production profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, daily glass basis, and weekly float glass ending inventory. The multi - empty flow is - 98.8, the capital energy is 15.3, and the multi - empty divergence is 95.0, indicating a high risk of market reversal [35][38][40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. Although there are some potential positive factors such as the upcoming summer maintenance peak, the overall situation is still bearish due to high supply, weak terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,260 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,383 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 123 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; outlook is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand situation, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The upcoming summer maintenance peak will lead to a decline in production [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,409 yuan/ton to 1,383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1,275 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%. The main basis decreased from - 134 yuan/ton to - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.21% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show various data such as effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, and supply - demand differences. The supply - demand situation has fluctuated over the years, and in 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157,000 tons [35].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable with slight fluctuations in prices, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressure for soda ash companies [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 12, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1290-1370 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1390-1520 CNY/ton [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash plants is stable, with a relatively high industry operating rate and sufficient market supply. However, the downstream demand sentiment is poor, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere [2][6]. Futures Market - On August 12, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1345 CNY/ton and closed at 1409 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.31%. The market was influenced by potential environmental disruptions in Qinghai and rising costs, despite the lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals [5][6]. Future Outlook - The number of companies undergoing maintenance is low, resulting in a loose supply in the soda ash market. With limited order growth and a lack of clear driving factors, short-term soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation trend [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,409 yuan/ton, and the basis is -134 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low-end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,345 | 1,235 | -110 | | Current Value | 1,409 | 1,275 | -134 | | Change Rate | 4.76% | 3.24% | 21.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co-production method in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in-production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures continued the downward trend, with the closing price of the main contract SA2601 down 0.08% from the previous week, at 1332 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe decreased by 1.20% to 1235 yuan/ton. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has faded, and the market has returned to fundamentals. Supply is increasing as maintenance work is gradually completed and some enterprises are undergoing maintenance. Demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory at soda ash plants is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of the soda ash market remain weak. With the fading of the "anti-involution" policy benefits, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the main futures contract decreased by 0.08% to 1332 yuan/ton, and the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 1.20% to 1235 yuan/ton. The main basis increased by 16.87% to -97 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1235 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week [15]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method was 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has recovered from a historical low [18]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 85.41%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production was 74.46 tons, with heavy soda ash accounting for 42.34 tons, at a historical high. The weekly heavy soda ash production rate was 56.86% [21][23][25]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity plans of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new production capacity in 2025 was 100 tons [26]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 90.69% [30]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75.19% [33]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in operation decreased significantly [36]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national plants was 186.51 tons, a 3.86% increase from the previous week, and it was above the five-year average [39]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [40]. 6. Influence Factor Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance season in summer is approaching, and production will decline [5]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The production of heavy soda ash's downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has faded [6][8]. 7. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].