1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Pure benzene is recommended for long - position allocation. Although the impacts of the conflict have been gradually factored into the absolute price valuation, and it is not advisable to chase high prices in the short term, the relative valuation of aromatics to naphtha is not expensive. Key factors include significant reduction in Asian pure benzene supply due to reduced cracking unit loads, increasing domestic exports of styrene, and active restocking by other downstream industries of pure benzene [3][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Import**: In the context of continuously reduced loads of overseas refineries, the monthly average import volume of pure benzene after the second quarter has been revised down to 350,000 tons. The import volume is expected to decline to around 380,000 tons in April and about 300,000 tons in May [3][68]. - **Domestic Production**: From March to May, the monthly average maintenance loss is 60,000 tons. Some domestic refineries such as Fujian United, CNOOC Shell, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Gulei have started preventive load - reduction. Attention should be paid to whether there will be additional load - reduction in the future [3][68]. Demand - **Styrene**: Ethylene plants mainly ensure the operation of styrene units and reduce the loads of other ethylene downstream products. The downstream 3S products of styrene are gradually showing negative feedback [3][68]. - **Caprolactam and Adipic Acid**: Prices have risen, industry profits have recovered rapidly, PA6 inventory has been rapidly depleted, monthly average production is higher than previously expected, and there are fewer maintenance plans [3][68]. - **Phenol**: Profits remain high, and the operating rate is continuously rising. There are not many maintenance units, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Shandong Ruilin [3][68]. - **Aniline**: Profits remain high. 17,000 tons were under maintenance in March, and there will be less maintenance from April to May, maintaining a high level in the short term [3][68]. Valuation - The valuation of this round mainly refers to the situation during the Russia - Ukraine conflict. After the aromatics blending oil demand starts in the second quarter, various price spreads are likely to exceed those in 2022. In the short term, when crude oil is at $100 per barrel, a styrene price of around 10,000 yuan/ton on the futures market is reasonable. Currently, the naphtha cracking spread is continuously expanding, and BZN is compressed to a historical low, with upward momentum for the valuation center. The reasonable valuation range of the bz2603 contract is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton based on a $100 - per - barrel crude oil valuation [3][68]. - Short - term shorting of EB processing fees is not recommended because of the significant contradictions in ethylene and large phased profit fluctuations [3][68]. Strategy - **Single - sided Strategy**: Buy pure benzene on dips [3][68]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Buy pure benzene and short PTA [3][68].