策略对话化工：构建商品牛市轮动框架，看好化工大周期 机遇 20260226 摘要 中国 GDP 增速放缓至 4%-5%，全球经济增长约 3%，化工行业需求增 速预计在 3%-6%之间，需求端并非主要矛盾，核心在于供给侧受双碳 政策和碳指标稀缺性约束，高碳排行业扩产受限。 化工行业可能向"资源化"或"有色化"演进，供应链受阻导致价格长 周期上行。双碳政策和碳市场扩围是关键，2027 年化工石化或纳入碳 交易市场，碳排放额度成为稀缺资源，行业内部将出现分化。 化工股自 2025 年三季度上涨约 40%-50%，但部分化工品期货与现货 涨幅不大，是市场风偏和流动性充裕下的预期定价，资金倾向于配置具 备长期价值的高赔率资产。 化工产品盈利处于底部区间，下行空间有限，安全边际较高。2024 年 开始上市公司资本开支下降，2027 年前后仍在底部徘徊，反映扩产动 力转弱，供给端出现拐点特征。 部分子行业 2026 年处于产能扩张尾声，另一些 2027 年进入尾声。在 "产能增速走低"与"需求仍有增长"的组合下，供需改善确定性提升， 价格上行概率增加，行业处于"临界点"附近。 市场分歧在于景气何时到来，而非是否存在。行业景 ...

BZ&EB周报：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：苯乙烯偏强震荡为主 | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：虽然海外库存压力仍然偏大，但是整体进口量下调。26年1-3月纯苯单月进口量平均约43万吨左右。美韩关税仍在，但是后续美亚芳烃 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 物流在春节后可能继续发生，预估影响每个月3-4万吨纯苯。 | | 需求 | • | 总体来看，纯苯下游维持高开工、高利润格局，关注春节之后新订单恢复情况。 | | | • | 苯乙烯：目前京博、玉皇等边际装置3月开车仍然有不确定性，重点关注边际检修的回归。 | | | • | 己内酰胺、己二酸：价格上涨，行业利润快速修复，PA6库存也快速去化，重点关注春节之后新订单的跟进情况。 | | | • | 苯酚：利润维持高位，开工也在持续回升。 | | | • | 苯胺：下游库存开始累库，重点关注节后新订单情况 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-27 下游开工等待进一步恢复 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-9元/吨（+23）。纯苯港口库存30.40万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费167美元/吨 （-5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费164美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差121.2美元/吨（-24.1美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-160元/吨（+5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-585元/吨（+35），酚酮生产利润-734元/吨（+100），苯胺生产利润1198元/吨（-56）， 己二酸生产利润-277元/吨（+32）。己内酰胺开工率74.46%（+0.36%），苯酚开工率89.50%（+0.50%），苯胺开工率 89.12%（-0.46%），己二酸开工率71.50%（+0.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差170元/吨（+18元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润516元/吨（+44元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存158100吨（+61900吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存87200吨（+33200吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率74.7% ...

化工：持续强Call，建议上仓位，拥抱好机会 短期为什么上涨？ 后续有什么催化剂？ 短期，地缘冲突+后续旺季，油价上行，催化补库涨价；部分品种开年提价；美国特朗普强调资源品如磷的战略地 位 后续，旺季补库+行业自律+3月两会等。 往年，3-5月为旺季，补库带来涨价，目前产业链库存不高（之前跌价周期，谁敢囤货呢？ ）。 竞争 化工：持续强Call，建议上仓位，拥抱好机会 短期为什么上涨？ 后续有什么催化剂？ 短期，地缘冲突+后续旺季，油价上行，催化补库涨价；部分品种开年提价；美国特朗普强调资源品如磷的战略地 位 后续，旺季补库+行业自律+3月两会等。 往年，3-5月为旺季，补库带来涨价，目前产业链库存不高（之前跌价周期，谁敢囤货呢？ ）。 国家聚焦内需+双碳赋能，有一个落地，都是利好；短期都没有的话，那上行节奏会缓一些，趋势不变 中长期怎么看？ 预计景气长周期上行，驱动力不是全球需求高增长，和过去的周期有些不同了（参考有色），而是企业主动扩产 放缓+政策限制低效扩张，供需差逐步收窄，从过剩到平衡再到紧张。 稍微叠加些自律，景气提前到来，区别于之前仅是供需平衡表数据主导下的行情。 少产一点，可以赚更多的钱，还费那 ...

新春之际，《中国化工报》记者来到位于唐山市京唐港经济开发区的开滦能源化工股份有限公司（以下简称开滦股份）煤化工循环经济园 区，入眼即是一座座由塔器、机泵和管道编织成的"工业森林"，黝黑的"乌金"煤炭就在这里变成聚甲醛、己二酸、尼龙66、聚磷腈等绿色产 品，实现从传统燃料到现代化工新材料的转变。 在开滦股份唐山中润公司食堂，记者注意到后勤保障人员正在打包一份份特殊的"新年礼包"，一张张金红的"福"字，一封封"致员工家属 的信"，将带着公司的感念与值守员工的思念一起跨越山海，送到异地坚守岗位员工的家人手中。 "矢志同奔万里程，雄心共创千秋业""创一流风正好扬帆，聚醛力干川江海阔"……贴在办公室的对联激励着开滦人，继续书写开滦新辉 煌。 在开滦股份唐山中润公司甲醇分厂的实验室，"大国工匠"化工正高级工程师邓晶正专注调整着设备参数。"目前，我们团队正重点推进甲 醇精馏装置节能改造，预计投产后，甲醇精馏的吨甲醇蒸汽消耗可以降低25%，一年就可以节省低压蒸汽6万吨；另外，我们也在提升预热炉 的热效率，在实现烟气零硫、低氮环保排放的同时，还可以每小时节省500立方米的燃料气。"邓晶说起这些项目，眼神中闪耀着自信光芒。谈 到 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-26 周中苯乙烯港口库存回升，下游利润有所压缩 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润197元/吨（+20元/吨），PS生产利润-353元/吨（+70元/吨），ABS生产利润-1041元/吨 （+1元/吨）。EPS开工率0.00%（-48.02%），PS开工率49.40%（-0.30%），ABS开工率68.90%（+0.00%）。 市场分析 原油方面。美伊局势仍是焦点，特朗普表示伊朗未放弃核野心，但仍保留外交窗口，继续关注谈判动向及对芳烃 成本的影响。 纯苯方面。节后港口库存微幅累积，港口库存仍处于历史高位。中国纯苯开工率明显较前期底部回升，进口到港 后续压力仍存。下游表现尚可，苯乙烯开工有进一步回升预期；己内酰胺开工仍处于低位，苯酚、苯胺、己二酸 开工均在偏高位。 苯乙烯方面，国内开工见底回升，苯乙烯港口库存周中继续回升，但库存绝对水平略低于同期；另外仍关注长停 的京博及玉皇后续的复工可能。节后下游EPS企业采购积极性有所回升；但苯乙烯涨价后，下游生产利润大幅压缩， 特别是ABS亏损加剧。 策略 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-32元/吨（+17）。纯 ...

油价震荡，BZ2604日度区间预计在6080-6320附近。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯苯产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6152 | -47 主力结算价:纯苯(日,元/吨) | 6195 | 38 | | | 主力成交量:纯苯(日,手) 市场价:纯苯:华东市场:主流价 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-02-25 原油提升芳烃成本，苯乙烯过节期间库存回建 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-49元/吨（-44）。纯苯港口库存30.40万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费165美元/吨 （-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费163美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差151.3美元/吨（+3.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-135元/吨（-15元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-725元/吨（-145），酚酮生产利润-834元/吨（-118），苯胺生产利润1254元/吨（+19）， 己二酸生产利润-235元/吨（-131）。己内酰胺开工率74.10%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率89.00%（+0.00%），苯胺开工 率89.58%（+0.33%），己二酸开工率69.00%（+0.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差81元/吨（-80元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润478元/吨（+106元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存158100吨（+61900吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存87200吨（+33200吨），处于库存回建阶段。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene: The port inventory was still at a high level before the holiday. The domestic production rate has started to recover from the bottom. The arrival of imports has rebounded from the bottom, and there is still pressure on shipments to China in the future. The downstream production performance is acceptable, with the styrene production rate starting to recover from the bottom, the caprolactam production rate remaining at a low level, and the production rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid all performing well [1][3] - Styrene: The domestic production peak has passed, and Tianjin Bohua has resumed production. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of Shandong Yuhuang and Jingbo, which have been shut down for a long time. The styrene production profit has started to peak and decline, and the market is worried that the supply may return more than expected under the current production profit. The port inventory declined again in the middle of the week, and the seasonal inventory accumulation was not realized before the holiday. EPS rapidly reduced its production load seasonally before the holiday, and the inventory increased seasonally; the PS production load declined again, but the inventory pressure was not large; after the ABS inventory pressure eased, the production rebounded [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is -1 yuan/ton (+63), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is -125 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 152 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+8 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 154.3 dollars/ton (-4.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary, with aniline having a relatively high profit of 1235 yuan/ton (+174) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 403 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and Production Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 million tons (-0.80 million tons), and the production rate has started to recover from the bottom [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 96,200 tons (-12,400 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 54,000 tons (-6,800 tons), and it is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The production rate is 71.1% (+1.1%) [1] IV. Production Rates and Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 321 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 48.02% (-8.22%) [2] - PS: The production profit is -329 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 54.00% (-1.20%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is -651 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 68.90% (+4.50%) [2] V. Production Rates and Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is -630 yuan/ton (+30), and the production rate is 74.10% (+0.94%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is -716 yuan/ton (+0), and the phenol production rate is 89.00% (+3.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 1235 yuan/ton (+174), and the production rate is 89.25% (+0.21%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is -163 yuan/ton (-9), and the production rate is 69.00% (-0.10%) [1] 4. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - Period: None - Cross - Variety: Short EB2604 and long BZ2603 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene supply - demand is expected to remain in a relatively balanced state. In the medium - to - long - term, as the number of spring maintenance units of petroleum benzene increases in the second quarter and the downstream caprolactam enters the peak season, there is a certain support for the domestic pure benzene price. Technically, the daily K - line of BZ2603 should focus on the support around 6000 and the resistance around 6260 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene is 6071 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the settlement price is 6118 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract is 12797 lots, an increase of 415 lots; the open interest is 16541 lots, a decrease of 2310 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it is 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it is 6150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it is 6075 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions is unchanged. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea is 777 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China is 778.02 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.13 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 73.12 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.69 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 617.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.75 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 75.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output is 44.31 tons, an increase of 1.41 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 30.5 tons, unchanged. The production cost is 5331.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 185.4 yuan; the production profit is 647 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 69.96%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 73.16%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 86%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 89.04%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 69.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 30th to February 5th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 2.40% to 75.40% year - on - year, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 0.21% to 56.47% year - on - year. From January 31st to February 6th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.02% to 74.95% year - on - year. As of February 9th, the port inventory of pure benzene in East China was 29.7 tons, an increase of 0.34% compared with last week. From January 30th to February 5th, the profit of domestic petroleum benzene increased by 114 yuan/ton to 647 yuan/ton [2]