一是产能持续扩张，竞争压力不断加大。近年来，我国酚酮行业呈现一体化、规模化和多元化发展态 势，产能持续增长。据卓创资讯统计，截至2024年年底，我国苯酚产能近十年的复合增长率达 13.65%，近五年增速为16.01%。尤其在2023年，7套新建装置与1套扩建装置集中投产，推动年度产能 增长率飙升至51%。当前酚酮产能扩张势头仍未止步，2025年苯酚总产能预计将突破735万吨。尽管苯 酚需求总量也在增长，但供应增速仍显著高于需求，市场正逐步转向供过于求格局，行业内部竞争压力 持续加剧。 二是市场价格承压走低，盈利空间难以提升。供过于求直接导致苯酚价格体系脆弱性增强，产品价格与 原料纯苯的联动性显著提升。今年以来，苯酚市场基本跟随纯苯价格震荡运行，在纯苯价格大幅走低的 背景下，苯酚现货价格一度跌破6500元/吨，创近两年新低。即便进入传统消费旺季"金九"，苯酚价格 仅较8月上涨217元/吨，同比跌幅近2000元/吨。行业开工率同样承压，上半年苯酚平均开工率仅为 72%，同比下滑5个百分点;自第二季度起，多数生产企业陷入持续亏损。尽管部分工厂尝试挺价维稳， 但在供需失衡的大环境下，价格缺乏突破动力。从后期趋势看，原 ...

近期，商务部发布公告，决定对原产于美国、欧盟、韩国、日本和泰国的进口苯酚继续征收反倾销税， 实施期限为5年。这为我国苯酚产业赢得又一阶段的政策保护窗口，有助于缓解外部低价进口产品对国 内市场的冲击。 然而，在外部屏障得以巩固的同时，国内市场的结构性矛盾与竞争压力正日益凸显，"稳内贸"的任务也 愈发艰巨。 自2019年我国对进口苯酚实施反倾销以来，进口依存度已从28.5%下降至2024年的16.8%。此次反倾销 税延续征收5年，将为国内企业争取更多应对调整时间。但行业需认识到，政策保护并不能从根本上解 决行业结构性问题。从中长期来看，酚酮行业将经历深刻的供给侧结构性改革。这一过程可能伴随部分 中小产能退出、行业兼并重组推进，以及企业向高附加值、差异化、精细化产品方向转型。只有通过持 续的产能优化、技术升级与市场出清，苯酚产业才能在反倾销保护期结束后，真正具备与国际厂商同台 竞争的能力，实现从"规模扩张"到"质量竞争"的战略转变。 一是产能持续扩张，竞争压力不断加大。近年来，我国酚酮行业呈现一体化、规模化和多元化发展态 势，产能持续增长。据卓创资讯（301299）统计，截至2024年年底，我国苯酚产能近十年的复合 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 2025-2026 work plan for the petrochemical industry emphasizes stable growth while focusing on economic benefits and high-quality development [4][14] - The plan sets a target for an average annual industrial value-added growth of over 5% and highlights the importance of economic efficiency recovery, innovation, and fine extension [18][19] - The 2025 version of the work plan introduces new measures such as optimizing pilot project management and emphasizes digital and green transformation [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Work Plan Release - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other ministries jointly issued the "Petrochemical Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 25, 2025 [3][13] 2. Goals and Measures Comparison - The 2025 version maintains a similar average annual growth target of 5% for industrial value-added but places greater emphasis on economic efficiency recovery and detailed targets for innovation and environmental goals [4][19] - The 2025 work plan introduces measures focusing on optimizing supply and enhancing project management, contrasting with the 2023 version's emphasis on major project construction [5][26] 3. Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition and a slowdown in domestic demand, necessitating structural adjustments and a focus on high-quality development [14][18] - The work plan aims to address issues of overcapacity and promote innovation to enhance competitiveness [17][19] 4. Integration with National Policies - The work plan aligns with the "National Unified Market" initiative, aiming for structural optimization and high-quality development in the petrochemical sector [6][14] - The integration of policies from both the industry and government levels is expected to effectively tackle the challenges faced by the petrochemical industry [6][14] 5. Future Investment Opportunities - The shift from a focus on expansion to optimizing existing capacities indicates potential investment opportunities in high-end materials and recovery of price cycles [7][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recently released "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aimed at addressing challenges such as intensified competition in the organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The plan targets an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value from 2025 to 2026, focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, optimization of carriers, and promoting cooperation [3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition, insufficient supply of high-end chemicals, and a slowdown in domestic demand growth, prompting the need for a comprehensive growth plan [3]. - The plan includes ten key tasks focusing on innovation, efficiency, demand expansion, optimization of carriers, and cooperation to enhance the industry's competitiveness [3]. - The elimination of outdated production capacity is expected to optimize supply-side dynamics and improve overall competitiveness in the petrochemical sector [3]. Group 2: Refining Capacity and Market Dynamics - As of 2024, China's refining capacity reached 955 million tons per year, with a target to keep crude oil processing capacity under 1 billion tons by 2025 [4]. - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with facilities below 2 million tons per year being phased out, and new integrated refining projects coming online, such as the 20 million tons per year project by Yulong Petrochemical [5]. - The capacity utilization rate in the chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [5]. Group 3: Profitability and Strategic Focus - The petrochemical industry has experienced a decline in profitability, with major private refining companies reporting a nearly 40% drop in net profits in the first half of the year [6]. - The plan emphasizes "controlling increments" and suggests focusing on high-value-added sectors to enhance supply in high-end markets, particularly in integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment [6]. - Companies that have already positioned themselves in high-value sectors, such as renewable energy materials, are expected to benefit from the market dynamics, with firms like Dongfang Shenghong seeing profit growth due to their investments in solar-grade EVA products [7].

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：国庆节前空单止盈 | | • | 纯苯国产：9月检修损失量6万吨，10~11月之后检修逐步降低。回到3~5万吨左右。9月新装置投产压力偏大，5.6万吨兑现。10、11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 月份分别有2.5、4.1万吨新产能落地。主要是裕龙石化，吉林石化，湖南石化，广西石化等。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：目前9月进口维持40-43万吨预期，四季度进口预期抬升，10月维持50万吨进口预期，11-12月维持高进口预期。外盘仍然 | | | • | 供应压力偏大。 苯乙烯：9月检修集中兑现，7.9万吨主要是广东石化和浙石化的影响相对较大。10~11月仍然有月均6万吨的检修，主要是镇海炼化和 | | | | 卫星石化影响。与此同时，苯乙烯的投产仍然在持续落地。预计11月吉林石化和广西石化均能落地，新增月均产量4万吨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on selecting elastic and advantageous sectors. Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. have impacted overseas chemical companies. In the long term, China's chemical industry has a clear competitive advantage, with significant cost benefits and technological advancements, allowing Chinese companies to fill gaps in the international supply chain [6][16] Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - Prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, indicating a high level of industry prosperity. The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quotas, and increased downstream demand has significantly optimized the supply-demand balance. Prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have increased by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively this year. Major refrigerant producers have seen substantial profit growth, with companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. reporting net profit increases of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [15][8] 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - For the week of September 15-21, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index dropped by 1.33%, underperforming the market by 0.89 percentage points. The Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index decreased by 1.99%, also underperforming the market [18][21] 3. Key Product Price Trends - The top price increases for the week included butyl acrylate (3.86%), bisphenol A (3.75%), and phenol (3.31%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in nitric acid (-3.11%), liquid ammonia (-2.71%), and caustic soda (-2.44%) [29][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The market fluctuates between anti - involution and crude oil price movements, with the industry's long - short sentiment remaining in a stalemate. Styrene's high - start in the peak season fails to reduce inventories, and there is increasing pressure on hard - rubber finished product inventories and external warehouses. Pure benzene's four downstream sectors are reducing their operations and entering a weakening phase. In the short term, the market will mainly be volatile [80]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. New device production is weak overall, with production pressure concentrated from August to September (50,000 - ton increase in August and 100,000 - ton increase in September). The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers emerged in August [3][80]. - Imported pure benzene: Low imports in August led to relatively low port inventories. September imports are expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, with an expected 500,000 - ton import in October. The external market still has large supply pressure [3][80]. 3.1.2 Demand - Styrene: There were few maintenance works in August, and the devices are operating at high capacity. From August to October, new styrene devices will be put into operation, with a monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure persists, and the entire styrene industry chain faces significant inventory pressure [3][80]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device in Hengyi Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation from August to September. Recently, caprolactam plants increased their loads, but the inventories of CPL and PA6 products are high. Factories in Shandong and South China maintain high raw - material inventories [3][80]. - Phenol: New 400,000 - ton and 200,000 - ton devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Jilin Petrochemical were put into operation from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. High - volume production continues [3][80]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new device has been put into operation. Yantai Wanhua plans maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching its limit, and downstream MDI production is increasing. Leading enterprises still have room to replenish inventories and can absorb the increase in pure benzene production [3][80]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: In the peak season, there are high production, high inventory, and moderate profits. The core issue is how to solve the problem of high external and factory inventories [3][80]. 3.1.3 Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. With the expected weakening of crude oil, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton [3][80]. - EB processing fee: Given the high port styrene inventory and high downstream raw - material inventory, the reasonable styrene processing fee is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Positions that previously squeezed profits are being closed, and unexpected maintenance may be less than expected [3][80]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term volatility, medium - term bearish [3][80]. - Inter - period: Styrene backwardation [3][80]. - Inter - variety: None currently [80]. 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, styrene has high inventory, moderate profits, and high production [52][54]. 3.2.2 Downstream Market - ABS: Production continues to increase. The industry faces issues such as inventory and market price fluctuations [67]. - PS: Production and profit margins show certain trends, with attention to inventory and price changes [69][70]. - EPS: Production and profit margins also have their own characteristics, and capacity utilization and inventory levels are of concern [74][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, due to unplanned production cuts in some styrene plants and maintenance plans from September to October, the supply of styrene has shrunk. Driven by peak - season demand in the downstream EPS/PS industries, overall operations have slightly improved, raw material procurement has followed up, and demand support has strengthened. However, although port inventories continue the downward trend from high levels, the current inventory level may still limit the upside potential of prices. Additionally, attention should be paid to the potential impact of macro - policies and geopolitical factors on the commodity market. The strategy is to take a short - term low - buying approach for EB10, and pay attention to the pressure around 7200; widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [2]. - Recently, the restart of some pure benzene plants has led to a month - on - month increase in production, and the supply side remains at a relatively high level. The demand side is sluggish, with unplanned production cuts in some styrene plants and a general weakening of the operating rates in other downstream industries. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains loose, and the pre - holiday stocking demand has not been significantly released, resulting in weak overall market drivers. In the short term, price trends may be easily affected by geopolitical and macro factors. The strategy is for BZ2603 to fluctuate in tandem with styrene [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (November) on September 17 was $67.95, down $0.52 (-0.8%) from September 16; WTI crude oil (October) was $64.05, down $0.47 (-0.7%); CFR Japan naphtha was $600, up $4 (0.7%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $850, unchanged; CFR China pure benzene was $742, up $1 (0.1%); the spread between pure benzene and naphtha was 133, down 3 (-2.2%); the spread between ethylene and naphtha was 241, down 4 (-1.6%); the listed price of pure benzene by Sinopec East China was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5980 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.1%); BZ futures 2603 was 6057 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.3%); the BZ basis (03) was -77, up 21 (-21.4%); the import profit of pure benzene was -90 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (2.2%); the exchange rate (RMB central parity rate) was 7.1013, down 0.0014 (0.0%) [2]. 3.2 Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of styrene in East China on September 17 was 7180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.1%); EB futures 2510 was 7138 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-0.3%); EB futures 2511 was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (-0.3%); the EB basis (10) was 42, up 10 (31.3%); EB10 - EB11 was -14, up 4 (-22.2%); the non - integrated EB cash flow was -142 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (10.6%); the integrated EB cash flow was -334 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan (16.5%); the EB - BZ spot spread was 1200 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-1.2%); EB03 - BZ03 was 1169 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan (5.2%); EB10 - BZ03 was 1081 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan (-0.4%); CFR China styrene was $888/ton, down $1 (-0.1%); the EB import profit was -168 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.2%) [2]. 3.3 Cash Flows of Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream - The cash flow of phenol on September 17 was -392 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan (-12.2%); the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) was -1830 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (4.6%); the cash flow of aniline was 220 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan (26.3%); the Eb2 cash flow was 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (16.7%); the PS cash flow was -180 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (-21.7%); another cash flow was -201 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (-6.1%); no information was provided for ABS cash flow [2]. 3.4 Inventories of Pure Benzene and Styrene (Weekly, Longzhong) - On September 15, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.40 million tons, down 1.00 million tons (-6.9%) from September 8; the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.90 million tons, down 1.75 million tons (-9.9%) [2]. 3.5 Changes in the Operating Rates of the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain (Weekly, Longzhong, Huarui) - The Asian pure benzene operating rate (Huarui) on September 11 was 79.0%, up 1.1% (1.4%) from September 4; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, down 0.1% (-0.1%); the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 54.6%, up 4.8% (9.6%); the phenol operating rate was 68.9%, down 6.3% (-8.4%); the caprolactam operating rate was 86.3%, down 4.2% (-4.6%); the aniline operating rate was 65.5%, down 2.5% (-3.7%); the styrene operating rate was 75.0%, down 4.7% (-5.9%); the downstream PS operating rate was 61.9%, up 0.9% (1.5%); the downstream EPS operating rate was 61.0%, up 8.5% (16.2%); the downstream ABS operating rate was 70.0%, up 1.0% (1.4%) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - BZ2603 fluctuated weakly and closed at 6,057 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase slightly this week, with the restart of some downstream plants potentially narrowing the supply - demand gap in the short term. However, the demand recovery may be limited due to the styrene maintenance cycle from late - September to October. Pre - holiday stocking demand may support prices. International oil prices are strong, and positive macro - factors are emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene was 6,057 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main settlement price was 6,069 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main trading volume was 2,238 lots, down 2,681 lots; the main open interest was 12,075 lots, down 47 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China were 5,990 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 5,900 yuan/ton, and 6,045 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Northeast China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 6,125 yuan/ton and remained unchanged respectively. The FOB mid - price in South Korea was 721 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR mid - price in China was 740.5 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 68.65 US dollars/barrel, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 604.88 US dollars/ton, down 3.62 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13%. The weekly output was 45.55 million tons, up 0.22 million tons. The port inventory was 14.4 million tons, down 0.5 million tons. The production cost was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene was 74.98%, down 4.76%. The capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 95.72% (up 6.41%), 78.54% (down 0.46%), 69.24% (down 0.1%), and 64.3% (up 2%) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 15, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 13.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.94%. From September 5 - 11, the profit of petroleum benzene of PetroChina was 443 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Outlook - This week, the operating loads of domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene plants are expected to increase, and the number of imported cargo arrivals is expected to decrease. Some downstream plants such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline will restart. However, styrene is in the maintenance cycle from late - September to October, which may limit the demand recovery. Pre - holiday stocking demand may support prices. International oil prices are strong due to geopolitical conflicts, and positive macro - factors such as smooth Sino - US - Spanish talks and upcoming domestic policies are emerging [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Materials, Sinopec, Ju Hua, Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun, Dao Tong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as Epoxy Chloropropane (up 10.00%), Synthetic Ammonia (up 4.35%), and others, while products like Urea and Sulfur experienced notable declines [4][5][21]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and fluctuating international oil prices are influencing market dynamics, with a recommendation to focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks [6][22]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [23]. Summary by Sections Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in Epoxy Chloropropane (10.00%), Sulfur (4.59%), and Synthetic Ammonia (4.35), while Urea saw a decrease of 8.47% [4][5][21]. - The report notes that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across different sub-sectors [22][23]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to enter a growth cycle, such as Glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [23]. - It highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sub-products, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng, Xin Yang Feng, and others for their stable demand [23]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, with Brent crude oil priced at $66.99 per barrel and WTI at $62.69, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [6][24]. - It anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize between $65 and $70, suggesting a cautious outlook for the market [6][24].