能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 供需弱化与成本变量共振，芳烃震荡运行 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 24 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.09%，报 6436 元/吨，基 差 64（+11 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 1.33%，报 5435 元/吨。 成本：11 月 24 日布油主力收盘 58.1 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 61.9 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5320 元/吨（-40 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 15.2%，苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨（+3.4 万吨），环比累 库 30.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 69.0%（-0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.3% （+4.6%），ABS 产能利用率 72.4%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 55.9 ...

纯苯库存：截至11月24日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：16.4万吨，较上期增加1.7万吨。 纯苯下游：截至11月20日，下游整体开工率涨跌互现。其中，苯乙烯开工率至68.95%（-0.3%），苯酚 开工率至79.00%（+11.4%），己内酰胺开工率至88.24%（+2.2%），苯胺开工率75.68%（-4.5%）。 【行情展望】 【现货方面】 11月24日，今天纯苯市场价格震荡下跌，原料端价格偏弱运行，同时江苏港口库存持续上升且月底前到 货数量较大，市场现货供应充足，心态谨慎；中化泉州官方宣布25号开始全厂检修，计划至1月25日， 基本维持最初检修计划。苯乙烯与纯苯价差继续扩大。 【供需方面】 纯苯供应：截至11月20日，石油苯产量44.67万吨（-0.76万吨），开工率76.67%（-1.31%）。本周期无 棣鑫岳重整、中化泉州重整等装置停车。 纯苯近期有新增产能和装置重启，虽有装置降负，但供应整体维持宽松；下游刚需采购为主，但部分亏 损品种减产保价，需求端总体支撑有限。近期港口库存上升明显且后续到货依旧偏多，供需预期整体偏 宽松。美亚芳烃套利炒作有所降温，且受地缘扰动，成本端波动加剧，短期内纯苯价格 ...

纯苯-苯乙烯周报 供 需 预期偏 弱且油价支撑有限 ， 纯 苯反弹承 压 供需预期好转但成本端支撑偏弱 ， 价格驱动有限 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 广发期货有限公司 研究所 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月22日 Saturday 张晓珍 从业资格：F0288167 投资咨询资格：Z0003135 纯苯主要逻辑及观点 成本：在OPEC+持续增产及美国原油产量新高压力下，原油供需格局依然偏弱。叠加近期原油市场利空因素有所增加，美国推动俄乌和平协议谈判，以及美联储下个月降息预期不确定 性增加，油价有所承压。短期布油关注60美元/桶支撑，关注俄乌地缘动态。 供需： 近期有装置重启及新装置产能计入，虽有装置降负，但供应维持宽松；下游部分亏损品种减产保价，需求端支撑有限，纯苯供需预期偏弱。 供应端，石油苯本周期产量44.67万吨（-0.76万吨），产能利用率76.67%（-1.31%）。本周期无棣鑫岳重整、中化泉州重整等装置停车；苯加氢装置开工率57.75%（+3.2%）， 产量7.58万（+0.42万吨）。 需求端，下游开工率涨跌互现。其 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 海外汽油裂差走强，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：乙苯调油推动纯苯苯乙烯价格上行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差约为200美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差为125美元/桶，价差小幅扩张，非一体化的生产利润依然是负值。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2025年11月17日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：14.7万吨，较上期库存11.3万吨累库3.4万吨，环比上升30.09%；较去年同期库存11.77万吨累库 2.93万吨，同比上升24.89%。供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求依然不佳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至202 ...

正信期货：预计短期纯苯延续震荡格局 库存方面，截至2025年11月17日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量14.7万吨，较上期累库3.4万吨，环比 上升30.09%；较去年同期累库2.93万吨，同比上升24.89%。需求方面，在缺乏终端需求实质性回暖信号 的背景下，需求端对价格的支撑有限。现货方面，苯乙烯基差整体走强5~10块，换货月差走缩。现货 EB12+50~65商谈，11下EB12+55~+65成交；换货方面，11换12升水30成交。现货商谈区间6520-6630， 11下6520-6630。总结来看：11月多套供应装置传出检修计划，进口货到船数量维持低位，总供应有缩 量预期。苯乙烯、己内酰胺、苯胺、己二酸对纯苯需求下降，苯酚对纯苯需求稳定，下游总体需求下 降。策略：基本面短期无明显利好支撑，但成品油强势叠加歧化减产预期，预计短期纯苯延续震荡格 局。 新湖期货：纯苯价格或走入震荡区间 供给端，最新石油苯开工在76.67%，相较前一周下滑1.31%，新增部分检修装置，实际到港仍偏多，进 口远端下滑幅度暂不确定，但强预期为价格提供支撑。需求端，下游加权开工率在73.52%，环比小幅 提升，终端需求表现仍一般，纯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market continues to be weak. Recently, the arrival rhythm of imports has been relatively dense, and port inventories have significantly increased, putting pressure on the spot market. The spot discount has widened, and the basis has further weakened, indicating a shift in market sentiment from stable to weak. Although low gasoline inventories provide some support for Asian aromatics, the overall external processing margin is weakening, and its support for the domestic market is limited. Overseas arbitrage spreads have been repaired, which may attract some South Korean supplies to flow outward, alleviating China's subsequent import pressure to some extent, but this effect is more medium - term. Domestically, supply is moderately increasing, while downstream demand is insufficient. The profitability of major benzene - consuming products like caprolactam and phenol - acetone is severely compressed, and their operating rates are mostly weak or only at a rigid level, unable to effectively consume pure benzene. In general, pure benzene is still in a weak - equilibrium state dominated by inventory in the short term, with the supply - demand mismatch intensifying spot pressure and prices showing weak fluctuations. Future focus should be on changes in import rhythm and signs of increased operating rates due to active resumption of downstream plants or improved profitability [2]. - Styrene shows more resilience than pure benzene, presenting a structural divergence. Although the price difference between the futures and spot markets has adjusted, the inventory in East China continues to decline, reflecting the combined effect of tight supply and improved short - term exports. Currently, styrene's operating rate is relatively low, and plant maintenance effectively restricts supply, keeping inventory in a downward trend. The market is also concerned about the resumption of plant operations at the end of the month. Once the resumptions are concentrated, the tight supply pattern may be alleviated, and the inventory trend may reverse, which requires continuous monitoring [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Information - **Price**: On November 20, the main styrene futures contract closed up 0.55% at 6,595 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 (+19 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene futures contract closed up 1.14% at 5,595 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,420 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), Brent crude oil closed at $59.4/barrel (-$1.3/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at $63.5/barrel (-$1.4/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.8 tons (-2.7 tons), a 15.2% month - on - month decline, continuing the destocking trend but still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.7 tons (+3.4 tons), a 30.1% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene's operating rate and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.3 tons (-0.1 tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S products has recovered. The capacity utilization rate of EPS is 56.3% (+4.6%), ABS is 72.4% (+0.6%), and PS is 55.9% (+0.5%) [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices | Product | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,559.0 yuan/ton | 6,595.0 yuan/ton | 0.55% | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,594.0 yuan/ton | 6,620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Styrene Basis | 1.0 yuan/ton | 20.0 yuan/ton | 190000% | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,533.0 yuan/ton | 5,596.0 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,390.0 yuan/ton | 5,455.0 yuan/ton | 1.21% | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | $664.0/ton | $664.0/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | $829.9/ton | $829.9/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | $677.2/ton | $677.2/ton | 0.00% | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Price Difference | -408.0 yuan/ton | -345.7 yuan/ton | 15.28% | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Price Difference | -160.0 yuan/ton | -45.0 yuan/ton | 71.88% | | Brent Crude Oil | $60.7/barrel | $59.4/barrel | -2.14% | | WTI Crude Oil | $64.9/barrel | $63.5/barrel | -2.13% | | Naphtha | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 7,106.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | [5] 3.2.2 Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory | Product | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 34.4 tons | 34.3 tons | -0.43% | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 45.4 tons | 44.7 tons | -1.67% | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 17.5 tons | 14.8 tons | -15.16% | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 18.9 tons | 18.8 tons | -0.70% | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 11.3 tons | 14.7 tons | 30.09% | [6] 3.2.3 Operating Rate | Product | 2025/11/14 Capacity Utilization | 2025/11/21 Capacity Utilization | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 69.3% | 69.0% | -0.30% | | Caprolactam (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 86.0% | 88.2% | 2.18% | | Phenol (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 67.3% | 78.7% | 11.46% | | Aniline (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 80.2% | 75.7% | -4.49% | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 51.6% | 56.3% | 4.64% | | ABS (Styrene Downstream) | 71.8% | 72.4% | 0.60% | | PS (Styrene Downstream) | 55.4% | 55.9% | 0.50% | [7] 3.3 Industry News - The EU imposed sanctions on several Russian individuals. - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000 in September, higher than market expectations. - Iran's foreign minister announced the official termination of the Cairo Agreement signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency. - The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy resources and replacing the previous department dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, styrene and pure benzene import - domestic cost differences, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. The data sources are iFinD and Steel Union Data [13][18][22][28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for Q3 2025, with a loss of 11.84 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 122.71%, and a cumulative loss of 179 million yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 304.14% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The decline in performance is attributed to a larger decrease in product prices compared to raw material prices, high costs associated with trial production of new projects, and increased maintenance costs [1] - The company aims to enhance cost reduction and efficiency, consolidate its competitive advantages across the entire product and industry chain, and improve its risk resistance and performance levels [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - The company has established production capacities including 600,000 tons/year of propane dehydrogenation, 700,000 tons/year of phenol and acetone, and several other chemical products [2] - The company is focusing on building a new materials and new energy industry chain, with ongoing projects such as a 300,000 tons/year direct oxidation propylene oxide project and a 250,000 tons/year electrolyte solvent facility [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is committed to accelerating the progress of ongoing projects and developing high-end industry systems in new materials and new energy [3] - There are currently no ongoing merger and acquisition projects, but the company is actively seeking and evaluating potential targets for future opportunities [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the potential repeated submission of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, coal price weakness driving the futures market down, spot price fluctuations due to individual device operations, sufficient supply and weak demand in the PP market, and continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors are that device overhauls in some enterprises such as Binhuahua, Haiwei, and Xintai have led to a rebound in spot prices. Negative factors are that PDH has not shown significant negative feedback in the short - term despite losses, and the downstream market, especially the PP market, remains weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.121 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.5432 [1]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - sell propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton and short - sell call options (PL2601C6000) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and short - sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - **Upstream raw material prices**: On November 19, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $63.16/barrel, down $1.2 from the previous day; WTI was at $59.41/barrel, down $1.16. Other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed price changes. For example, MOPJ was at $561.94/ton, down $9.39 [5]. - **Mid - stream propylene prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of propylene in the East China region was 5925 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price difference between CFR China and FOB South Korea remained at $35/ton [5]. - **Downstream product prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of polypropylene granules was 6440 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Other downstream products like acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, etc., also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Profit situation**: Main refinery profit was 704.12 yuan/ton, and MTO monomer profit was - 179.17 yuan/ton. PDH profit was in a continuous loss state, with propylene PDH profit - FEI at - 225.20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price difference situation**: The price difference between MOPJ and propylene was 1829.03 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was not available on November 19, 2025 [5].

【现货方面】 纯苯下游：截至11月13日，下游整体开工率涨跌互现。其中，苯乙烯开工率至69.25%（+2.3%），苯酚 开工率至67.58%（-7.7%），己内酰胺开工率至86.06%（持平），苯胺开工率80.17%（+2.4%）。 【行情展望】 纯苯供应：截至11月13日，石油苯产量45.43万吨（+1.65万吨），开工率77.98%（+2.83%）。本周期抚 顺石化等装置重启，另有部分企业负荷调整。 纯苯库存：截至11月17日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：14.7万吨，较上期增加3.4万吨。 纯苯近期多套装置存检修预期，但进口预期维持高位，整体供应仍或偏宽松；需求上，下游苯乙烯因部 分装置重启负荷提升，但部分亏损品种减产保价，国内需求端支撑有限。港口库存变动不大但依旧维持 高位，且后续到港仍较多，纯苯供应压力仍存。短期美湾歧化装置减产及调油需求对市场情绪或仍有提 振，但实际影响及持续性仍待考量。整体来看，纯苯供需预期仍偏宽松，叠加成本端支撑有限，或限制 反弹空间。不过因目前纯苯估值偏低，后续关注装置变动。短期BZ2603反弹空间有限，暂观望。 11月17日，今日纯苯市场价格先涨后跌，整体指数环比上涨；原 ...

Market Overview - The price of pure benzene has slightly increased as of November 13, driven by stable to strong raw material prices and reduced production at the US Gulf Coast disproportionation units, alongside favorable demand for oil blending [1] - Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases in both benzene and styrene, although there is caution due to rising port inventories in China and expectations of continued high arrivals [1] Supply and Demand - As of November 6, the production of petroleum benzene reached 437,800 tons, with an operating rate of 75.14%, reflecting an increase of 8,900 tons and 1.04% respectively [2] - The restart of several facilities, including Dalian Fuxia's aromatics unit and Shenghong Refining's reforming unit, has contributed to the supply dynamics, while some facilities are undergoing maintenance [2] - The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 113,000 tons as of November 10, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period [2] - The operating rates for downstream products as of November 6 showed a mixed trend, with styrene at 66.94% (+0.2%), phenol at 75.31% (-2.7%), caprolactam at 86.06% (unchanged), and aniline at 77.74% (-0.8%) [2] Market Outlook - The recent introduction of new production capacity and the restart of facilities, along with maintenance expectations, suggest that the overall supply of pure benzene may remain ample [3] - Demand is limited due to some loss-making downstream products anticipating production cuts to maintain prices, leading to overall weak support from the demand side [3] - Although there is an expectation of a certain volume of imports arriving in November and December, the impact of the US-Asia arbitrage window and oil blending on market sentiment remains uncertain [3] - The outlook for crude oil supply and demand is weak, limiting cost support and potential for price rebounds, with attention needed on facility operational changes [3]