Core Viewpoint - Nikon has issued a severe profit warning, predicting a loss of 85 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025, marking the worst performance in its history since its establishment in 1917. The company's core lithography business is facing a complete collapse, leading to an unprecedented survival crisis [1]. Group 1: Nikon's Decline - Nikon's lithography machines shipped only 9 units in the past six months, all of which were low-tech, mature process equipment, indicating a significant technological lag [1]. - Once a dominant player with a 40% market share in the global lithography market in 2001, Nikon's market share has now fallen to single digits, reflecting a near-total loss of competitive strength [3]. - The company's downfall is attributed to a series of missteps, including rejecting the immersion lithography technology proposed by TSMC in 2002, which later became a game-changer for the industry [6][7]. Group 2: ASML's Ascendancy - ASML has emerged as the absolute leader in the high-end lithography market, with a 100% market share in EUV lithography machines and over 90% in high-end DUV lithography machines [12]. - The company has not only maintained its dominance but is also expanding into advanced packaging equipment, recognizing the need to control the entire semiconductor manufacturing process [13][15]. - ASML's strategic partnerships and open collaboration with top suppliers have allowed it to rapidly enhance product performance and reduce R&D costs, contributing to its market monopoly [25][26]. Group 3: Canon's Strategy - Canon has chosen a different path by focusing on the mature process lithography market, providing cost-effective products and maintaining high loyalty among second and third-tier wafer fabs [19]. - The company is exploring nanoimprint lithography (NIL) technology, which could potentially bypass the EUV system, although it faces significant challenges in terms of template lifespan and defect control [20][21]. - Canon's approach highlights the importance of finding niche markets and differentiating strategies in a landscape dominated by larger competitors [22]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The evolution of the lithography market reflects broader changes in the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt to disruptive technological changes and avoid path dependency [24][30]. - The competition is shifting from individual machine capabilities to comprehensive system-level solutions, with companies needing to provide integrated solutions to reduce complexity and speed up time-to-market [28]. - Geopolitical factors are increasingly influencing the semiconductor equipment market, necessitating a diversified supply chain strategy to mitigate risks [28].