Core Viewpoint - The packaging paper industry is experiencing a price increase for raw paper, with multiple companies announcing new price hikes in the fourth quarter to cope with rising costs [3][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since the third quarter of this year, the price of raw paper used in the packaging paper industry has been continuously rising [3]. - As of November 24, the average daily price of corrugated paper was 3,213 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%, while the average price of boxboard was 3,889 RMB/ton, up 6.86% year-on-year [4]. - Several well-known pulp and paper companies have recently issued price adjustment notices for various paper types, with price increases ranging from 50 RMB/ton to 200 RMB/ton, effective mainly from late November to December 1, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Outlook - Companies in the packaging paper sector are adjusting their prices, with increases of 10% to 15%, which is lower than the 20% to 30% increase in upstream raw paper prices [3]. - Major securities firms believe the current paper industry is benefiting from a combination of price increases, improved demand, and structural upgrades, with a positive outlook for profitability in the fourth quarter [4]. - Notable companies such as Sun Paper, Annie Co., Huatai Paper, and Bohui Paper have seen significant net buying in financing, indicating strong market interest [5]. - Forecasts suggest that companies like Hengfeng Paper, Qifeng New Materials, and Bohui Paper will see net profit growth rates of 70.67%, 35.33%, and 20.2% respectively for the year 2025 [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Hong Kong paper stocks is driven by a combination of falling raw material prices, improved demand, and low valuation levels, indicating a potential recovery in the paper industry [3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - From June 20 to July 14, paper stocks in Hong Kong experienced a significant increase, with an average rise of approximately 15%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [1][4]. - Notable companies such as Sunshine Paper and Nine Dragons Paper saw monthly gains of 19% and nearly 12%, respectively [1][3]. - The paper sector recorded a cumulative increase of 13.73% during this period, with a trading volume of 2.520 billion shares and a total transaction value exceeding 5.6 billion HKD [4][5]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The decline in international wood pulp prices, with European softwood pulp prices dropping about 15% since the beginning of the year, has positively impacted paper companies' profit margins [3][10]. - Major companies have raised their factory prices for cultural paper by 300-500 HKD per ton since June, reflecting a strong demand recovery and low inventory levels in downstream sectors [3][10]. - The combination of lower costs and successful price increases is expected to enhance profit expectations for paper companies in the upcoming quarters [10][11]. Group 3: Demand Signals - Seasonal demand for educational materials during the summer is expected to boost printing needs, while packaging paper benefits from recovering orders in consumer electronics and home appliances [11]. - Export performance has been strong, with a 34% year-on-year increase in corrugated paper exports from January to May, particularly to emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The paper sector in Hong Kong is currently undervalued, with dynamic P/E ratios for companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper below their five-year averages [11]. - Recent inflows from southbound funds into leading paper companies indicate a shift in market sentiment towards optimism regarding the sector's recovery [11].