研究员：孙海洋/张彤 机构：天风证券 三十年稳步扩张，产业链日趋完善 公司成立于1995 年，总部位于中国广东省东莞市，2006 年于香港联交所主板上市，目前为全球产能第 一的造纸集团和浆纸一体化的龙头企业，主要产品为各类环保包装纸、文化纸、高档全木浆纸及其上下 游产业链。集团现有造纸设计年产能超过2300 万吨，经历三十年发展，公司从包装主业向上下游浆纸 产业链不断延伸。 公司：聚焦浆纸一体发展，产业链布局成效显现 产能规模上，近年公司在行业底部逆势扩张，截至2025 年6 月30 日，公司造纸及木浆年设计产能接近 2900 万吨，FY2022-FY2025 造纸新增产能超过500 万吨，产能CAGR 达到9%，木浆新增产能超过450 万吨，浆纸扩张节奏基本匹配。产品结构上，公司坚持丰富拓展高档牛卡纸、白卡纸等高门槛、高盈利 的高端产品，伴随规模效应显现，近年吨纸成本下降较为明显，FY2025 吨盈利触底改善。产业链方 面，在全面禁废背景下，公司全力推进浆纸一体建设，我们预计截至25 年底，公司将拥有70 万吨再生 浆产能、200 余万吨木纤维产能以及540 余万吨木浆产能；未来在重庆、天津、广西北海等地仍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of eliminating outdated production capacity in the paper industry as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the paper industry, which aims to promote green and high-end transformation [1] Industry Summary - The policy encourages the reduction of high-pollution and low-efficiency capacity, leading to the gradual elimination of old pulp and paper production lines by some paper enterprises [1] - Leading companies benefit from environmental compliance advantages and large-scale production capabilities, creating favorable conditions for capturing market share and optimizing the competitive landscape [1] Company Summary - The company is responding to rising raw material costs and the industry's "anti-involution" initiative by initiating price adjustments for cultural paper, coated paper, and specialty paper products [1] - With the gradual ramp-up of the company's 700,000-ton chemical pulp project, the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp is increasing, effectively reducing dependence on imported wood pulp [1] - The company leverages the synergy between its "paper + chemical" dual main business to further optimize production costs in the paper business [1] - The ongoing improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry, along with the gradual release of high-end capacity and continuous upgrading of product structure, is expected to enhance the profitability elasticity of the paper business, providing strong momentum for the company's long-term stable development [1]

Group 1 - Company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, establishing a more complete industrial chain, and is currently the world's largest paper production group and a leader in the integrated pulp and paper industry [1] - The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, China, with a current design capacity of over 23 million tons of paper [1] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% in revenue over the past ten years, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion in FY2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [2] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to remain stable, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.3% over the past five years [3] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with supply-demand imbalances leading to short-term price pressures, but the situation is expected to improve as smaller capacities exit the market [3] - The company has been expanding its production capacity, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% in new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [4] Group 3 - The company is focusing on the integrated development of pulp and paper, with significant results in its industrial chain layout, including plans for 700,000 tons of recycled pulp capacity and over 2 million tons of wood pulp capacity by the end of FY2025 [4] - The company is diversifying its product structure by expanding high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton paper costs [4] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons of raw materials by 2027, which will help minimize waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [4]

Group 1 - The company, Jiu Long Paper, is expected to achieve net profits of 3.12 billion, 3.49 billion, and 3.84 billion CNY for FY26-28, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.6X, 7.7X, and 7.0X [1] - The company has been steadily expanding for thirty years, evolving from a packaging-focused business to a comprehensive pulp and paper industry chain [1] - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% over the past decade, with projected revenue of 63.24 billion CNY for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] Group 2 - The demand for corrugated box paper is expected to grow, with consumption projected at 35.82 million tons and 34.07 million tons for box paper and corrugated paper respectively in 2024, supported by a CAGR of 8.3% and 7.5% over the past five years [2] - The industry has returned to a capacity expansion cycle since 2022, with increased imports due to waste bans and zero tariff policies, leading to temporary price pressures [2] - The Guangdong Paper Association has initiated an "anti-involution" campaign to resist low-price competition and optimize capacity structure, indicating a positive shift in industry direction [2] Group 3 - The company has been expanding its production capacity even during industry downturns, with a design capacity nearing 29 million tons by June 30, 2025, and a CAGR of 9% for new paper production capacity from FY2022 to FY2025 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end products such as high-grade kraft paper and white cardboard, leading to a noticeable decrease in per-ton production costs [3] - The company aims to achieve a self-sufficiency rate of 1.02 million tons in raw materials by 2027, which will help reduce waste paper procurement costs and ensure stable production quality [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's stock price has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 11.22%, indicating strong market performance despite some fluctuations in shareholder activity and net profit decline [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohui Paper achieved a revenue of 14.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.46%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 889 million yuan, with 9.44 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Activity - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.94% to 45,800, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 7.46% to 29,216 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 8.64 million shares, an increase of 310,200 shares compared to the previous period, while Southern CSI 1000 ETF reduced its holdings by 86,800 shares [3]. Stock Performance - On November 10, Bohui Paper's stock rose by 2.15% to 5.71 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 121 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.61%, leading to a total market capitalization of 7.633 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a 11.09% increase over the last five trading days, a 13.07% increase over the last twenty days, and a 12.18% increase over the last sixty days [1]. Business Overview - Bohui Paper, established on April 29, 1994, and listed on June 8, 2004, is located in Huantai County, Zibo City, Shandong Province. The company primarily engages in the production and sales of various types of paper [1]. - The main revenue composition includes white cardboard (62.22%), cultural paper (25.10%), box board paper (6.89%), gypsum face paper (3.04%), and other supplementary products (2.75%) [1]. - The company is classified under the light industry manufacturing sector, specifically in the paper and bulk paper category [1].

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Co., Ltd. emphasizes that its current main industries are paper manufacturing and chemicals, indicating a focus on enhancing its market position and internal value [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The main products in the paper segment include newsprint, cultural paper, coated paper, packaging paper, as well as chemical pulp and mechanical pulp [1] - The chemical products primarily consist of caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, propylene oxide, chloroacetic acid, methyl chlorides, and aniline [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - The company believes its stock price does not reflect its intrinsic value and plans to accelerate the implementation of transformation projects to achieve production efficiency [1] - There is a commitment to strengthen the market expansion of high-end products and continuously optimize the profit structure [1] - The company aims to deepen investor relations management to effectively communicate transformation value and operational highlights, supporting a valuation enhancement plan to aid in value recovery and improve the experience of minority shareholders [1]

Core Points - The stock price of Bohui Paper increased by 2.11% on November 6, reaching 5.33 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 7.125 billion CNY [1] - Bohui Paper's main business includes the production and sales of various types of paper, with the revenue composition being 62.22% from whiteboard, 25.10% from cultural paper, 6.89% from boxboard paper, and 3.04% from gypsum face paper [1] - As of September 30, 2025, Bohui Paper reported a revenue of 14.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million CNY [2] Financial Performance - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 3.82%, with a 7.68% rise over the last five trading days and a 6.60% increase over the last 20 days [1] - The company has distributed a total of 889 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 94.36 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.94% to 45,800, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 7.46% to 29,216 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Southern CSI 1000 ETF, with the former increasing its holdings by 310,200 shares [3]

Core Insights - On November 5, Yuegui Co., Ltd. saw a stock price increase of 5.17%, reaching 16.47 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 805 million CNY and a turnover rate of 11.27%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 13.21 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Yuegui Co., Ltd. was established on October 5, 1994, and listed on November 11, 1998. The company is based in Liwan District, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province [1] - The main business activities include the production and sale of refined sugar (white sugar, brown sugar), pulp (unbleached pulp, bleached pulp), and paper (cultural paper, specialty paper), as well as the mining, processing, and sale of sulfur iron ore, sulfuric acid, reagent acid (refined sulfuric acid), iron ore powder (sulfur iron ore slag), and phosphate fertilizer (ordinary calcium phosphate) [1] Revenue Composition - The revenue composition of Yuegui Co., Ltd. is as follows: sulfur concentrate 37.15%, refined sugar 21.46%, pulp 13.92%, others 7.53%, sulfuric acid 5.79%, iron ore powder 4.79%, silver powder 2.30%, phosphate fertilizer 1.89%, lump ore 1.40%, trading business 0.97%, -3mm ore 0.96%, cultural paper 0.67%, amino sulfonic acid 0.58%, reagent sulfuric acid 0.50%, and exported hand-picked ore 0.08% [1] Shareholder Information - Tianhong Fund has a fund that ranks among the top ten circulating shareholders of Yuegui Co., Ltd. The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 1.5864 million shares, which accounts for 0.35% of the circulating shares [2] - The Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) was established on September 9, 2021, with a current scale of 5.525 billion CNY. Year-to-date, it has incurred a loss of 2.82%, ranking 4173 out of 4216 in its category; over the past year, it has lost 2.94%, ranking 3840 out of 3901; since inception, it has lost 29.3% [2] Fund Management - The fund manager of Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736) is Sha Chuan, who has been in the position for 7 years and 294 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 27.922 billion CNY, with the best fund return during the tenure being 126.66% and the worst being -69.41% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 28.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.50 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [6][7]. - Cultural paper prices have hit a bottom, and there is an expectation for gradual improvement in profitability due to upcoming demand seasons and cost advantages from lower raw material prices [6][7]. - The corrugated box paper prices are on an upward trend, driven by domestic and international supply constraints, which is expected to enhance profitability in the coming quarters [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 41.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.6%. The net profit is forecasted to be 3.40 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.7% [2][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.22 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [2][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be around 15.6% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.9% [2][8]. Market Data - As of November 3, 2025, the company's closing price was 14.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 39.66 billion yuan [3][6]. - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.3 and a dividend yield of 2.10% [3][6]. Long-term Growth Potential - The company is advancing its integrated forestry and pulp-paper strategy, with plans to increase its forest land area by over 10,000 hectares annually. New production capacities are expected to come online in the second half of 2025, which will support future growth [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.500 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.471 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year change of -7%, +2%, and -5% respectively. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 9.823 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 707 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6%, +3%, and -9% respectively [2][4][5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, totaling 279 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the main reason for the decline in net profit was the drop in profitability of cultural paper, with prices for copperplate and double-glue paper decreasing by 500 yuan/ton (-9.3%) and 338 yuan/ton (-6.6%) respectively compared to Q2 2025. The decline in paper prices was attributed to a seasonal demand slump and oversupply in the cultural paper segment [5][6]. - The profitability of boxboard paper remained stable due to rising raw material prices, while the profitability of dissolving pulp and externally sold wood pulp was expected to remain stable as well [5][6]. Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see improved performance due to the launch of the Nanning project and seasonal demand recovery. The company has new production capacity planned, including 1 million tons of boxboard paper and 400,000 tons of specialty paper, which will contribute to increased production and sales in Q4 2025 [10]. - The overall paper industry is anticipated to enter an upward cycle as new capacity pressures ease and demand stabilizes, with the company expected to achieve net profits of 3.4 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [10].