该行估计FY25公司造纸销量2,100万吨+，同比+10%，过去玖龙专注箱瓦纸，2024年市占率近30%，近 几年公司战略重心为：扩浆纸品类+强化原料布局，产业链一体化增厚超额利润。据公司公告，FY22- 25公司核心聚焦广西+湖北新基地，扩产重心在纸浆、及配套造纸，FY25公司投产120万吨白卡纸、60 万吨文化纸，175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆，截至FY25，该行估算公司造纸、纸浆(含再生浆)产能超 2,300万吨、500万吨，对应2021-25年产能增速CAGR在8%、30%+。往前看，公司1HFY26仍有120万吨 白卡纸、70万吨文化纸、70万吨化机浆拟投放，至2025年末公司纸+浆产能突破3,000万吨，该行估计 FY26公司销量延续小幅增长，产品结构继续优化。 中金发布研报称，考虑到玖龙纸业(02689)自制浆成本优势超预期，上调FY25-26年业绩25%、49%至18 亿元、25亿元，引入FY27年25亿元，对应P/B为0.5x、0.4x、0.4x;该行维持跑赢行业评级，上调目标价 33%至6.0港元，目标价对应P/B为0.5x、0.5x、0.5x，隐含11%上行空间。公司发布盈利预告，预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - 中金上调玖龙纸业FY25-26年业绩预期，主要因自制浆成本控制超预期，预计FY25盈利21-23亿元，同比增加165%至190% [1] Group 1: Performance and Financials - FY25业绩上调25%至18亿元，FY26上调49%至25亿元，FY27引入25亿元 [1] - 目标价上调33%至6.0港元，隐含11%上行空间 [1] - FY25归母净利润预计17-19亿元，同比增加126%至153% [1] Group 2: Production and Market Strategy - FY25造纸销量预计2100万吨，同比增长10% [2] - 公司战略重心为扩浆纸品类及强化原料布局，预计FY25投产120万吨白卡纸、60万吨文化纸、175万吨化学浆、60万吨化机浆 [2] - 预计到2025年末，纸+浆产能将突破3000万吨 [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Market Conditions - 业绩超预期的核心在于自制浆成本控制及动力煤价格下跌 [3] - 预计2025年下半年煤价环比修复，需关注自制浆成本变化对利润的影响 [3] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Debt Management - FY25资本开支预计在130亿元以上，FY26资本开支可能仍偏高 [4] - 需关注公司负债率变化及最新投产规划 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 20.1% year-on-year for 1H2025, but a significant decline of 47.6% in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 120 million yuan [3]. - The revenue for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 1.99 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 15.2% and 25.1% [3]. - The net profit for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 64.68 million yuan and 56.99 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 51.7% and 42.2% [3]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The company completed a production volume of 1.0237 million tons of mechanical paper in 1H2025, with sales of 987,200 tons, marking increases of 76.3% and 74.4% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The average price per ton was 4,175 yuan, which is a decrease of 1,886 yuan year-on-year [4]. - The full production of the industrial packaging paper line at the Hubei base added 550,000 tons per year of corrugated boxboard capacity, contributing to ongoing revenue growth [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Margins - The gross margin for 1H2025 was 8.2%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 margins at 8.8% and 7.7%, respectively [5]. - The average price per ton for paper cup base paper in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 6,800 yuan and 6,489 yuan, showing declines of 300 yuan and 418 yuan year-on-year [5]. - The increase in competition led to price reductions in various paper products, contributing to the decline in gross margin [5]. Group 4: Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for 1H2025 was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The financial expense ratio increased due to the cessation of capitalizing interest on loans as paper machine production lines were completed and increased bank borrowings [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is currently "No Rating" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue increase of 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 4.122 billion yuan, although the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.7% to 122 million yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and a bottoming out of pulp prices, leading to potential improvements in profitability in Q3 2025 [3] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, with a total designed capacity of 2.444 million tons as of H1 2025, which includes various product categories [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from different product categories was as follows: food packaging paper at 1.308 billion yuan (down 18.2%), daily consumer series at 1.157 billion yuan (down 1.7%), cultural paper at 447 million yuan (down 12.7%), and industrial packaging paper at 1.079 billion yuan (new category) [4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 7.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was -17 million yuan, indicating short-term fluctuations, but the operational capability remains stable with inventory turnover days at 50.15 [6] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 321 million yuan, 520 million yuan, and 699 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.5X, 11.4X, and 8.5X [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic price of broadleaf pulp has recently increased, while cultural paper and white card paper remain under pressure due to supply and demand factors. However, the waste paper sector shows a strong willingness to raise prices, continuing its upward trend. In July, China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and U.S. furniture sales rose by 5.1% year-on-year. The extension of reciprocal tariffs and countermeasures between China and the U.S. for another 90 days, along with the approaching U.S. interest rate cuts and overseas promotional stocking demands, suggests a potential recovery in the export chain [17][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - The domestic price of broadleaf pulp has risen slightly, while cultural paper and white card paper prices are still under pressure. The waste paper sector continues to show strong price increase intentions, maintaining an upward trend. In July, China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and U.S. furniture sales rose by 5.1% year-on-year. The extension of reciprocal tariffs and countermeasures between China and the U.S. for another 90 days, along with the approaching U.S. interest rate cuts and overseas promotional stocking demands, suggests a potential recovery in the export chain [17][25]. 2. Key Data Tracking - In July, China's furniture retail sales increased by 20.6% year-on-year, while sales in building materials and home furnishing markets decreased by 12.9% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [39]. - The domestic price of broadleaf pulp has increased by 109 yuan/ton compared to July, influenced by international production cuts and price increases. The waste paper sector has also seen price increases, with waste paper prices rising by 21 yuan/ton for old books and 100 yuan/ton for old yellow board paper [18][22]. - In July, the U.S. furniture and home decor store sales increased by 5.1% year-on-year, maintaining a single-digit growth for 11 consecutive months. The inventory turnover ratios for U.S. furniture wholesalers and retailers indicate stable conditions, suggesting resilience in overseas demand [25][26]. 3. Company Announcements and Industry Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Gujia Home, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in home consumption. In the paper and packaging sector, it highlights Sun Paper as a key player benefiting from new capacity releases [5][14][15].

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Overweight" [6] Core Views - In July, the decline in pulp and paper prices slowed, with expectations for a rebound in pulp prices and stabilization in white paper prices, while black paper prices continued to rise [2] Summary by Sections Cultural Paper - Prices for cultural paper have been declining, with the average market price for 70g high white double glue paper at 5094 CNY/ton, down 1.11% month-on-month and 9.34% year-on-year [10][23] - Supply and demand remain imbalanced, with production recovering but overall demand still weak [13][10] - Profitability is stable as both prices and costs are declining, with the average theoretical gross margin at 1.59% [23] White Cardboard - Prices continue to decline due to weak seasonal demand, with the average market price for 250-400g white cardboard at 4036 CNY/ton, down 1.25% month-on-month and 9.02% year-on-year [24] - The supply-demand gap is expected to widen, putting further pressure on prices [27] - Profit margins are decreasing as the price drop exceeds the cost drop, with gross margins declining [39] Boxboard - Prices for boxboard have shown mixed trends, with the average price at 3449 CNY/ton, down 1.49% month-on-month [42] - Demand is expected to recover in August, alleviating some supply pressure [46] - Profitability remains low as the price drop is greater than the cost drop [11] Waste Paper - The supply of waste paper is tight, leading to a gradual increase in prices [12] Wood Chips - Import volumes have increased month-on-month, with overall demand stabilizing [14] Wood Pulp - External prices are stabilizing, but the supply-demand imbalance persists, with average prices for imported hardwood pulp at 490 USD/ton [15][6]

Group 1 - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase wave, with leading companies like Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and Shanying International announcing price hikes effective from August 1, marking the fourth round of price adjustments since July [1] - The primary driver for this price increase is the rising costs of raw materials, energy, and logistics, particularly affecting packaging paper prices [1] - The price of waste cardboard, a key raw material for corrugated paper, has a strong positive correlation with corrugated paper prices, with recent supply issues leading to price adjustments of 20-40 yuan/ton in certain regions [1] Group 2 - Manufacturers' pricing strategies aim to stimulate downstream purchasing and reinforce price increase expectations, encouraging packaging companies to procure in advance and reduce inventory pressure [2] - Despite frequent price hikes, weak terminal demand and overcapacity in the paper industry create uncertainty in the transmission of price increases through the supply chain [2] - The corrugated paper price increase has not fully translated to the packaging sector, with some packaging companies engaging in price competition due to insufficient orders [2] Group 3 - The overall profitability of the paper industry is expected to remain low in the second half of the year due to the linkage between raw material costs and paper prices [3] - Long-term challenges include overcapacity and insufficient demand, leading to severe competition and price wars among companies [3] - The Guangdong Provincial Paper Industry Association has initiated a campaign to promote high-quality development and combat low-price competition, indicating a push towards healthier industry practices [3]

Price Trends - The price of waste paper has increased from 0.3 yuan per jin to 0.4-0.5 yuan per jin, leading to a rise in the prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper by 30-50 yuan per ton due to increased costs [1][3] - Despite the price increases in packaging paper, prices for paper types made from pulp, such as white card paper and cultural paper, have been declining due to excess capacity and insufficient demand [1][7] Industry Dynamics - The paper industry is experiencing a negative cycle where expanding production does not lead to profitability, as companies feel pressured to expand to maintain market share [2] - The domestic paper industry is projected to add over 10 million tons of new capacity from 2023 to 2024, while demand growth is expected to be only 1.5% in 2024, leading to significant supply-demand imbalances [8] Cost Pressures - Rising operational costs have prompted multiple price increase notices from companies like Nine Dragons Paper, with the latest being the sixth notice in July alone [3][4] - The increase in waste paper prices due to heavy rainfall has contributed to the cost pressures faced by paper manufacturers [3][4] Market Sentiment - Despite the price increases, the transmission of these costs to the packaging sector remains uncertain due to weak terminal demand, leading to competitive pricing among packaging companies [5][6] - The overall profitability of the industry is under pressure, with some companies reporting losses while others are barely breaking even [12] Future Outlook - The paper prices are expected to remain weak in the second half of the year, with companies focusing on cost management to maintain profit margins [14] - The industry is likely to see further consolidation as smaller companies may struggle to survive in the current environment, leading to a potential increase in market share for larger firms [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of the first "anti-involution" initiative, aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing structural overcapacity issues in the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association has issued the first "anti-involution" initiative in the domestic paper industry, emphasizing the need to resist low-price competition and maintain market order [1][6]. - The initiative encourages companies to set prices based on actual costs, reasonable profits, and market demand, aiming to protect the overall value of the industry [1][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite steady growth in consumption for certain paper types like corrugated paper and household paper, overall capacity expansion has outpaced demand growth, leading to low utilization rates, with some types below 55% [4]. - The industry is facing a prolonged supply-demand imbalance, characterized by declining operating rates and slow inventory reduction, indicating a typical cyclical bottom phase [6][9]. Group 3: Price Adjustments - Several paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have announced price increases due to rising costs, marking the fourth round of price hikes in July alone [7]. - The overall paper industry has been under significant pricing pressure, with major paper types experiencing price declines since 2021, reflecting weak market demand and overcapacity [7][9]. Group 4: Institutional Focus - Institutions are focusing on companies like Sun Paper, which has integrated pulp and paper production, and others in the sector that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative and potential market restructuring [10][13]. - Analysts suggest monitoring companies that are diversifying product lines and those with integrated operations, as the industry may see improvements in profitability due to reduced competition and optimized capacity [10][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the government's "anti-involution" initiative, which aims to address excessive competition and promote product quality. The new capacity in the paper industry, which has seen significant growth in recent years, is projected to slow down starting in 2026. This, combined with expectations for commodity prices to return to healthier levels, suggests that the industry may gradually enter an upward cycle, with a focus on the valuation recovery and profit elasticity of leading companies [2][4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The government has emphasized the need to address "involution" in competition, with a focus on promoting quality and phasing out outdated capacity. The paper industry, which has faced oversupply, is likely to benefit from these broader industry reforms [2][4] Current Market Conditions - The paper industry is currently at a cyclical low, with profitability under pressure. As of Q1 2025, total inventory in the paper industry has decreased compared to Q4 2024, indicating that the industry has not yet entered a passive destocking phase. The price of wood pulp is showing signs of bottoming out, with recent price adjustments indicating a willingness among leading manufacturers to stabilize or increase prices [8] Short-term Outlook - The third quarter is expected to be a pressure test for the industry, with the fourth quarter showing strong improvement potential. Despite the seasonal downturn and new capacity coming online, the price decline for pulp and paper is expected to be limited, and leading companies are likely to manage costs effectively [8] Mid-term Outlook - Supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, with the industry poised for recovery as new capacity growth slows from 2026 onwards. The anticipated return to healthier pricing levels due to the "anti-involution" measures will support this recovery [8] Recommended Companies - The report recommends Sun Paper as a leading company with strong profit margins and a history of resilience through cyclical downturns. Other notable companies include Nine Dragons Paper and Bohui Paper, which also show significant profit elasticity potential. Special paper leaders like Xianhe Co. and Huawang Technology are highlighted for their stable demand and cost advantages [8]