证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系（2025.08） 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看：截至 2025 年 8 月上旬，49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭（如无烟煤、焦炭 等）、中游农林（豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等）以及下游化工（硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等），表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征；下降品种则以黑 色金属（中板、角钢、热卷）、有色金属（铜、铝、锌等）、建材（水泥、 玻璃）、部分化工（PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素）和能源（液化气、天然气、油 品）为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大，整体价格承压。总体来看，价格 分化明显，上游能源与部分化工品景气回升，而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看：工业品同比整体仍在下行通道，但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正；有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼，硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%；而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位，市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...

玉米现货持续回落 盘面底部震荡 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米受降息预期影响及后期可能下调单产，美玉米12合约反弹到400美分/蒲以上。截止8月22日，玉米拍卖367万吨，成交130万吨，成交率36%。 进口玉米持续拍卖，09仓单仍较高，国内种植成本降低，新季玉米陆续上市，国内玉米现货继续回落。目前市场焦点依旧是新作，尤其是华北市场，市场预期华 北玉米10月大量上市大概率跌破2200元/吨。01玉米底部震荡，短期2150元/吨附近震荡。 淀粉：淀粉厂开机 ...

公司方面，据长江证券表示，玖龙纸业、博汇纸业等体量较大、吨盈利低位，后续利润弹性大以及特种 纸龙头仙鹤股份、华旺科技等。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 8月20日行情显示，港股玖龙纸业大涨逾11%。 消息面上，玖龙纸业公布，集团预计上半年盈利约21亿元至23亿元之间，较去年度7.93亿元增长165% 至190%。该盈利增长乃主要得益于销量上升，且原材料成本下降幅度及速度显著快于产品售价降幅， 从而推动毛利上升。 国泰海通证券表示，7月以来玖龙为首的龙头纸企提价，带动各地再生箱板纸、瓦楞纸行业均价上涨； 从提价落地节奏来看，7月底至8月初落地明显加速，主要由于成本端国废价格稳步抬升，促使7月中下 旬起小厂积极跟随涨价；预计旺季需求及成本驱动下，纸价将持续上涨，与原料成本差将重新扩大，盈 利有望改善。 兴业证券指出，目前纸价和浆价均处在历史底部，随四季度进入传统旺季，浆价纸价均有望向上，叠加 反内卷政策加持，行业或迎上行周期。 ...

阅文与王者荣耀联动，关注 IP 衍生品行 业势能 ——轻工纺服行业周报（20250811-0815） 一、行情回顾：本周（2025.08.11-2025.08.15），A股 SW纺织服饰行 业指数下滑 1.37%，轻工制造行业上涨 1.56%，而沪深 300 上涨 2.37%，上证指数上涨 1.70%。纺织服装在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅 排名第 29 位，轻工制造在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅排名第 16 位。 二、核心逻辑： 1）轻工行业：①我们认为潮玩谷子行业需求快速增长，Z 世代引领新 消费趋势，盲盒等产品触及情绪价值深层需求。伴随泡泡玛特、国谷 等产品走向世界，中国 IP 文化加速渗透。②DeepSeek 等 AI 新技术 与轻工制造有望深度融合，伴随以旧换新政策延续、财政持续发力、 国家推动房地产市场止跌回稳等，轻工内需有望逐步企稳，实现估值 修复。 潮玩谷子：阅文集团与王者荣耀联动，深耕 IP 衍生品市场。根据北京 商报网，近日阅文集团与王者荣耀启动了"国创内容战略合作计划"， 同步发布并上线了《诡秘之主》与王者荣耀联动，本次两大世界级 IP 联动，系双方深度合作以来，首次实现周边和皮肤同步上 ...

Price Increases in the Paper Industry - Major paper companies have been issuing price increase notices since July, with companies like Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and others raising prices for various paper products by 30 to 50 yuan per ton [1][4] - The average market price for AA-grade corrugated paper increased by 1.90% to 2573 yuan per ton, while the average price for boxboard rose by 0.32% to 3461 yuan per ton as of August 7 [1][4] Reasons for Price Increases - The price hikes are primarily driven by rising raw material costs and increased operational expenses, with companies like Shandong Century Sunshine Paper citing high production costs as a significant pressure [4][5] - A decrease in the supply of recycled paper due to adverse weather conditions has contributed to rising costs, benefiting the prices of corrugated and boxboard paper [4][6] Industry Performance and Trends - The paper and paper products industry reported a revenue of 681.21 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with total profits down 21.4% to 17.57 billion yuan, indicating significant growth pressures [5] - The upcoming traditional peak seasons, such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are expected to increase demand, with a potential for further price adjustments in August and September [6][7] Industry Challenges and Responses - The paper industry faces severe supply-demand imbalances, with increased production capacity leading to oversupply, while demand growth remains sluggish due to global economic slowdowns [8] - In response to low-price competition, industry associations in Guangdong and Jiangsu have initiated measures to promote high-quality development and reduce internal competition, with companies like Nine Dragons and Lee & Man supporting these initiatives by halting production [10]

编者按： 这里是民生调查局，见人所未见，调查民生之变。关注你想关注的、你没关注的，调查你想 看的、未看到的。 中新网北京8月17日电(记者 谢艺观)造纸行业再掀波澜。近段时间，各大纸企涨价函如雪花般涌来，有 企业甚至多次调价。为何纸企会接二连三宣布涨价？难道"洛阳纸贵"又要上演？ 涨价！涨价！涨价！ 7月以来，玖龙纸业、理文造纸、湖北荣成纸业、山鹰国际等业内知名纸企纷纷发布涨价函，涉及瓦楞 纸、再生牛卡纸、T纸、箱板纸、纱管纸等多类纸品。其中，玖龙纸业多个基地更是轮番调价，涨势强 劲。 中新网记者同时询问了电商平台上的快递盒、纸袋销售商家，多位客服表示，"价格暂时没调整，之后 是否上调具体要等通知。" 纸企为何纷纷调价？ 纸企巨头上调纸价后，其他纸企亦陆续跟涨，这波纸企涨价愈演愈烈。综合各公司调价信息，涨价范围 多是在每吨30元至50元之间。 上游原纸涨势不止，也波及到下游包装行业。近日，多个包装企业发布通知，上调纸板价格。 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至8月7日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场均价2573元/吨，较上月底上调 1.90%；中国箱板纸市场均价3461元/吨，较上月底上调0.32%。 资料图。 谢艺观 ...

新华财经广州8月12日电（记者吕光一） 近段时间以来，国内造纸行业"涨声"不断，以龙头纸企为首， 行业多次发出涨价通知，范围覆盖瓦楞纸、牛卡纸、箱板纸等多个品类，引发市场关注。 年内多次提价 7月下旬开始，玖龙纸业、江西理文造纸、湖北荣成纸业、山鹰国际等多家纸企再次发出涨价通知，宣 布因成本上涨，将从8月1日起上调瓦楞纸、再生牛卡纸等部分纸种的价格，涨幅普遍在30-50元／吨。 记者注意到，造纸行业这一波涨价潮事实上从今年一季度已经开启，一些龙头纸企已多次发布涨价函。 特别是进入7月份以来，部分企业甚至在近一个月的时间内提价多次，行业涨价步伐明显加快。 国金证券分析指出，随着纸浆价格逐渐企稳回升，叠加9-11月为文化纸招标旺季、下半年进入箱板瓦楞 纸消费旺季，在下游需求刺激下，纸价有望持续回暖以增厚纸厂利润。 陈竹表示，涨价能否落地与维持取决于供求关系。目前来看是比较好的时机，旺季需求即将到来。"一 方面，下半年是造纸旺季，需求会增加；另一方面，近期原材料成本价格上涨明显，对价格有部分支撑 作用。长期来看，如果下游需求能够保持，则价格有望稳定。"陈竹说。 市场期待"反内卷"效果 与涨价函一起来的还有"停机函" ...

Macro and Strategy Research - In July 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a shift from a year-on-year increase to stability, with a month-on-month increase driven by summer travel demand and improved consumption policies [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing of the decline in July 2025, with international pricing of oil and non-ferrous metals rising, while domestic production material prices remained weak due to adverse weather conditions [3][4] Industry Research - The price of corrugated paper has increased, with leading companies like Nine Dragons Paper raising prices, which has led to downstream companies issuing price increase notices for cardboard [6][7] - Beijing has optimized its housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy multiple properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to positively impact the home goods sector [8] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 3.00 percentage points during the week of August 4 to August 8 [7] - The corrugated paper price rose by 50 yuan per ton from August 1 to August 8, indicating a positive trend in the packaging paper market as demand increases in the second half of the year [7][8]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to address the issue of overcapacity and promote the exit of backward production capacity. Although the industry will remain under pressure in the short term, medium to long-term investment opportunities are emerging [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status: Overcapacity and Intensified "Involution" Dilemma - The main contradiction in the domestic paper industry is the mismatch between supply and demand, with production capacity growth far exceeding demand since 2020. For instance, the capacity for boxboard paper is projected to reach 47.77 million tons in 2024, while the apparent consumption is only 35.33 million tons, indicating a capacity surplus of approximately 1.4 to 2.1 times [16][18]. - The prices and profitability of major paper types have dropped to historical lows due to this supply-demand imbalance, leading to widespread losses in the industry. The total profit of the paper and paper products industry fell to 52 billion yuan in 2024, with losses from unprofitable companies reaching 16.8 billion yuan [26][27]. - The industry's operating indicators show a continuous decline in the operating rate, which has dropped from 80-90% to 60-70%, reflecting both proactive production cuts by companies and insufficient market demand [28][30]. 2. Historical Insights: Lessons from the 2016-2018 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-side reform from 2016 to 2018 was driven by strong national policies, leading to a market clearing of backward production capacity and an increase in industry concentration. The number of paper enterprises decreased from 6,841 in February 2016 to 6,594 by mid-2017 [39][40]. - The price surge during this period was a result of effective supply-side reforms and steady demand growth, with major paper types experiencing price increases of over 40% [45][48]. 3. Core Judgments: Is This Round of "Anti-Involution" a New Cycle or a New Story? - The current paper industry has several logical foundations for initiating a new cycle of recovery, similar to those present before the last round of supply-side reforms. These include government policies aimed at addressing "involution" and the natural market clearing dynamics due to widespread losses [57][58]. - The new national standard for energy consumption limits in the paper industry, effective from May 2025, will impose stricter requirements, potentially accelerating the exit of outdated production capacity [59][61].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase in the next 6-12 months [6][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that multiple paper companies have issued price increase notices, which may improve the industry's profitability [2]. - It notes that overseas pulp mills are reducing production, which is expected to stabilize and potentially increase pulp prices [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in finished paper prices as pulp prices rise and demand improves, particularly in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its integrated operations in the pulp and paper industry, which is expected to improve profitability [5]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company show a steady growth trajectory from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 436.97 billion, 472.71 billion, and 506.73 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - In August, several paper companies announced price increases, marking the fourth round of price adjustments since July, indicating a trend towards improved profitability in the packaging paper sector [2]. - Domestic pulp prices have been under pressure due to concentrated production capacity and weak downstream demand, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as demand picks up [3]. Company Performance - The company has launched several new production lines and projects, including a 37,000-ton specialty paper project and various pulp production lines, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 436.97 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.29%, and net profits of 35.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.33% increase [6]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.27 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].