Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its current valuation, and investment considerations, emphasizing the impact of various factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and market conditions on gold prices [4][6][70]. Historical Performance of Gold - Over the past 200 years, gold has slightly outperformed inflation, with a long-term annualized return of around 0.6% after adjusting for inflation [6][7]. - Since 1971, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold's long-term annualized return has significantly increased to 8.89% [10][12]. - Gold has experienced three major bull and bear market cycles since 1971, with notable price fluctuations [15][18][20]. Recent Market Trends - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, gold and other major asset classes have seen an overall increase [4]. - The current market has experienced a recent correction after a significant rise, coinciding with new tax regulations on gold investments [4][66]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold prices is the U.S. dollar's real interest rate, which is calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate [31][32]. - Other influencing factors include mining costs, geopolitical risks, and financial crises, which often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [37][43][70]. Valuation Assessment - Gold's valuation can be assessed using the ratio of gold price to average mining costs, with a price below mining costs indicating a strong buying opportunity [46][49]. - As of November 3, 2025, gold is rated at approximately 1.1 stars, suggesting it is not currently undervalued [49][64]. Investment Strategies - There are three primary purposes for investing in gold: decorative (jewelry), short-term investment (gold funds), and long-term hedging (physical gold) [55][56]. - Decisions on whether to take profits or continue holding gold should be based on the initial investment purpose and current market conditions [62][64]. Tax Implications - New tax regulations effective November 1, 2025, will impose differentiated tax rates on gold based on its use, affecting the cost of purchasing gold jewelry while maintaining lower costs for investment-grade gold [66][69].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its current valuation, and investment considerations in light of recent market fluctuations. Group 1: Historical Performance of Gold - Over the past 200 years, gold has slightly outperformed inflation, with a long-term annualized return of around 0.6% after adjusting for inflation [3][4] - Since 1971, the annualized return of gold has significantly increased to 8.89% [7][11] - The transition from the gold standard to fiat currency has led to higher inflation rates, which in turn has driven up gold prices [9][10][11] Group 2: Bull and Bear Markets - Gold has experienced three major bull and bear market cycles since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971 [12] - The first cycle (1971-2000) saw gold prices rise from $37 to $850 per ounce, followed by a 20-year bear market where prices fell nearly 70% [14][16] - The second cycle (2001-2016) included a rise to $1921 per ounce during the financial crises, followed by a bear market with a maximum drawdown of about 44% [16][17] - The third cycle (2017-present) has seen gold prices rise significantly, reaching a peak of $4251.448 per ounce, with a maximum increase of 262.73% [19][20] Group 3: Volatility and Risk - Gold's volatility can be measured by its volatility rate of around 35% and a maximum drawdown of 44% since 2008, which is lower than the average risk of stock assets [22] - Historical maximum declines in A-shares were approximately 71% in 2008 and nearly 50% in 2015, indicating that gold's risk level is slightly lower than that of stocks but higher than bonds [22] Group 4: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold prices is the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar, which is calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate [24][25] - A significant decrease in the real interest rate typically leads to an increase in gold prices, while an increase in the real interest rate tends to decrease gold prices [25] - Other influencing factors include the cost of gold mining, which is currently around $1624 per ounce, and geopolitical risks such as regional conflicts and financial crises [29][31] Group 5: Valuation of Gold - Gold valuation can be assessed using the ratio of gold price to average mining cost; prices below mining costs indicate a buying opportunity [35] - As of November 3, 2025, gold is rated at approximately 1.1 stars, suggesting it is not currently undervalued [39][40] Group 6: Investment Purposes - There are three main purposes for investing in gold: decorative (jewelry), short-term investment (gold funds), and long-term hedging (physical gold) [44] - The decision to take profits from gold investments should depend on the initial investment purpose, with long-term holders typically not selling during short-term price increases [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its long-term returns, and factors influencing its price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these elements for investment decisions [1][38]. Long-term Returns of Gold - Gold's long-term annualized return, adjusted for inflation, is approximately 0.6% from 1802 to 2021, indicating it has outperformed inflation over time [3][4]. - From 1971 to April 2025, gold's long-term annualized return is significantly higher at 8.6% [6]. Historical Bull and Bear Markets - The first bull and bear market occurred from 1971 to 2000, where gold surged from $37/oz to $850/oz, a 22-fold increase, followed by a 70% decline over the next 20 years [11]. - The second cycle from 2001 to 2016 saw gold rise to $1921/oz during the financial crises, followed by a 44% drop over six years [13]. - Post-2016, gold prices have been on an upward trend due to global uncertainties, including the pandemic and regional conflicts [15]. Volatility and Risk - Gold's volatility is around 28.93%, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with 60-70% equity exposure [17]. - Historical bear markets in A-shares have seen declines of up to 71%, indicating gold's risk level is slightly lower than equities but higher than bonds [17]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factors affecting gold prices include: 1. **U.S. Dollar**: The real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation) significantly impacts gold prices. A decrease in real rates typically leads to higher gold prices [21]. 2. **Mining Costs**: Current mining costs are around $1500/oz, and prices below this level may indicate a buying opportunity [24]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Events like regional conflicts and financial crises often drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, increasing its price [25]. Investment Strategies and Considerations - Investment in gold can be categorized into three purposes: 1. **Decorative**: Jewelry, which has high premiums and is not primarily for investment [32]. 2. **Short-term Investment**: Gold funds, which are convenient for trading but may have management fees [33]. 3. **Long-term Hedge**: Physical gold, which serves as a hedge against extreme risks and is typically held long-term [35]. Conclusion - Gold remains a significant asset class for investment, with a long-term return that has improved since the end of the gold standard in 1971 [38]. - Key factors influencing gold prices include real interest rates, mining costs, and geopolitical risks, while its volatility is comparable to a mixed equity fund [39][40].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【直播回放】 有朋友问，历史上，黄金经历了哪些涨跌波动，收益率如何？ 连续上涨后，黄金目前估值如何？需要止盈吗？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0429 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 过去200多年里，黄金跑赢了通货膨胀 《股市长线法宝》最新版中，统计了黄金从1802年到2021年的年化收益率数据。 在剔除了通货膨胀之后，黄金长期年化收益率在0.6%上下。 这个数字是正的，说明黄金长期也跑赢了通货膨胀。 2. 黄金1971年之后，收益率大幅提升 不过黄金的长期收益有些特殊。 3. 黄金收益提升的原因：从金本位到纸币本位 在一百多年前，大多数国家，是处于金本位时代。 货币的发行会挂钩黄金。这种制度有利有弊。 好处是，金本位下，通货膨胀的数字是可控的，物价上涨比较慢。 缺点是限制了货币的供给，不利于社会经济发展。 从美国1929年大萧条之后，一直到二战，很多国家开始尝试废除金本位，改为纸币本位。 好处是货币供给大大增加，社会经济发展不再受 ...