卡尔·波兰尼的《大转型》是20世纪极具影响力的一部关于经济、政治和社会著作。在这本写于1944年的著作中，他告诉世人那些古典经济自由观 念下的市场主义不会令世界更幸福，根源在于19世纪之后出现的现代市场世界根本性的矛盾——"理性"市场逻辑主导的经济—政治结构看似可以 自我调节，实则难以为继。 本文内容出自新京报·书评周刊12月26日专题《卡尔·波兰尼：告别市场乌托邦》B04-05版。 B01「主题」卡尔·波兰尼 告别市场乌托邦 B08「中文学术文摘」传播研究 文摘一则 撰文丨孙睿 《国富论》希望展现出的机制是：一个人出于追求利益的动机，通过分工和市场机制的自发作用，就能使得整个群体的生产效率提升，财富也会 更好积累。但斯密从未认为市场可以脱离道德和同情心来理解，自利也不是自私，而是一个关心自身处境改善的天然动机。并且这一理论具有极 强的自由主义色彩，与文艺复兴以来对个体自由和人的理性的肯定一脉相承。市场参与者们不需要任何指令驱使——不需要上帝的意志，也不需 要强制命令，只要他理性地思考自己的利害得失（这是人性中自然的存在，不需要失去自己的尊严获得），按照自由意志进入市场，这只"看不见 的手"就会实现协作与合作 ...

近日，特朗普或已亲信推举沃什当美联储主席。如果明年凯文·沃什接掌美联储，市场可能会看到几十年来美联储最显著的政策转向之一。 今年早些时候，在一场与胡佛研究所主持人彼得·罗宾逊（Peter Robinson）的对谈中，沃什毫不避讳地指出了当前美联储体系的沉疴，并抛出了一个论 断："通胀是一种选择（Inflation is a choice）。" 他驳斥了将通胀归咎于供应链或地缘政治的借口，坚持认为央行完全有能力决定价格水平，现在的局 面正是美联储错误选择的结果。 沃什的核心论点建立在对"自满"的批判之上。他指出，美联储在"大稳健"时期（Great Moderation）之后误以为通胀已死，从而在非危机时期维持了过于 庞大的资产负债表。引用沃什的原话："当你不断地这里印一万亿，那里印一万亿，这早晚会找上门来。" 他认为，美联储在2010年至2020年的平稳期 没有及时撤出，导致当真正的危机（如疫情）来临时，不得不跨越更多红线，造成了今天的通胀恶果。 作为潜在的美联储主席继任者，沃什不仅是批评者，更是改革者。他提出了具体的政策路径："如果我们在印钞机上安静一点，我们的利率其实可以更 低。" 这是一个非常关键的增量信 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中央经济工作会议 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行[1]。本次会议客观分析了中国经济面临的发展形势，不回避困难挑战，我们认为会议突 出问题导向、目标非常清晰，直接回应了市场和社会对消费、投资、房地产、企业账款、市场竞争秩序等一系列热点问题的广泛关切。 在政策工具的选择上，本次会议体现出更加注重质效的导向、工具的选择范围也更丰富。明年的政策取向是"稳中求进、提质增效"。其 中"提质增效"是今年的新要求，或意味着明年宏观政策会更加注重落地的效果，而不是仅强调总量扩张。我们在年度展望报告《"增 减"之间》[2]中也强调了2026年可能呈现总量政策适度加力，结构方面"增减"和"供需"同时发力以实现合理增长的观点。 2025.12.12 | 中金研究 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 适度加力，增减并行——12月政治局会议点评 >>点击图片查看全文<< 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作[3]。会议强调明年经济工作要坚持"稳中求进、提质 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：中金点睛 Abstract 摘要 在金本位时代，黄金曾是国际货币体系运转的中心，全球经济和贸易在金本位制度下迎来空前繁荣。布 雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元凭借深厚的金融市场、强大的主权信用与完善的制度保障，成为国际货币体 系的中心，而黄金则退居为一种具有风险分散功能的特殊商品。 然而近年来，随着美国经济相对优势下降、国家债务负担加重，美元的制度信任开始在霸权滥用下出现 裂缝。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突与2025年特朗普"对等关税"后，全球投资者开始重新评估美元资产的安全 性，国际货币体系加速走向碎片化与多元化。在国际货币体系动荡的时代，人们很自然地把目光重新投 向黄金，黄金确实也经历了一轮显著的价值重估，并且与美债利率"脱锚"。 黄金能否替代美元，重新成为国际货币体系运转的中心？我们认为过去几年黄金价格屡创新高，并不意 味着旧制度卷土重来，而是新世界裂变的回声。真正发生的不是金本位的"复活"，而是美元霸权的基础 开始动摇，多极货币体系的雏形正在显现。黄金正在被重新定价，但由于全球经济政治格局已经改变， 金本位亦有其内在缺陷，我们已不可能再回到那 ...

该行提到，然而近年来，随着美国经济相对优势下降、国家债务负担加重，美元的制度信任开始在霸权 滥用下出现裂缝。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突与2025年特朗普"对等关税"后，全球投资者开始重新评估美元 资产的安全性，国际货币体系加速走向碎片化与多元化。在国际货币体系动荡的时代，人们很自然地把 目光重新投向黄金，黄金确实也经历了一轮显著的价值重估，并且与美债利率"脱锚"。 在金本位时代，黄金曾是国际货币体系运转的中心，全球经济和贸易在金本位制度下迎来空前繁荣。布 雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元凭借深厚的金融市场、强大的主权信用与完善的制度保障，成为国际货币体 系的中心，而黄金则退居为一种具有风险分散功能的特殊商品。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，过去几年黄金价格屡创新高，并不意味着旧制度卷土重来，而是 新世界裂变的回声。真正发生的不是金本位的"复活"，而是美元霸权的基础开始动摇，多极货币体系的 雏形正在显现。黄金正在被重新定价，但由于全球经济政治格局已经改变，金本位亦有其内在缺陷，我 们已不可能再回到那个由稀缺金属决定货币秩序的时代。黄金在多极化格局中仍可充当储值与避险资 产，但它无法替代信用货币在利率调节、流动性供给 ...

Abstract 摘要 在金本位时代，黄金曾是国际货币体系运转的中心，全球经济和贸易在金本位制度下迎来空前繁荣。布雷顿森林体系瓦解后，美元凭借深厚的 金融市场、强大的主权信用与完善的制度保障，成为国际货币体系的中心，而黄金则退居为一种具有风险分散功能的特殊商品。 然而近年来，随着美国经济相对优势下降、国家债务负担加重，美元的制度信任开始在霸权滥用下出现裂缝。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突与2025年 特朗普"对等关税"后，全球投资者开始重新评估美元资产的安全性，国际货币体系加速走向碎片化与多元化。在国际货币体系动荡的时代，人 们很自然地把目光重新投向黄金，黄金确实也经历了一轮显著的价值重估，并且与美债利率"脱锚"。 黄金能否替代美元，重新成为国际货币体系运转的中心？我们认为过去几年黄金价格屡创新高，并不意味着旧制度卷土重来，而是新世界裂变 的回声。真正发生的不是金本位的"复活"，而是美元霸权的基础开始动摇，多极货币体系的雏形正在显现。黄金正在被重新定价，但由于全球 经济政治格局已经改变，金本位亦有其内在缺陷，我们已不可能再回到那个由稀缺金属决定货币秩序的时代。黄金在多极化格局中仍可充当储 值与避险资产，但它无法替代 ...

Group 1 - The world is potentially forming a dual financial trend, with COMEX and SHFE as potential winners, while LME may suffer significant losses, particularly in industrial and financial-related precious metals like gold, silver, and copper [1] - The liquidity trends indicate a national-level withdrawal of liquidity, as no single entity can manage the liquidity of three precious metals simultaneously, highlighting the challenges faced by the London market [1] - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3346.4 billion in November, marking a slight increase of $3 billion from October, and maintaining stability above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, the highest since December 2015 [1][5] Group 2 - The central bank's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.12 million ounces, marking 13 consecutive months of accumulation, reflecting a strategic choice to optimize reserve structure and mitigate financial risks amid a complex international environment [3][5] - The stable foreign reserves are crucial for ensuring smooth international trade payments and cross-border investments, providing a solid external credit environment for Chinese enterprises [5] - The slight increase in foreign reserves in November was influenced by market factors, including a 0.3% decline in the US dollar index and rising non-US currencies, indicating a reduced correlation with other major currencies [5][9] Group 3 - Gold is viewed as a quality asset to avoid sanctions and currency fluctuations, with China's accumulation aimed at stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and enhancing its pricing power in the global precious metals market [8] - The current gold reserves account for approximately 9.28% of total foreign reserves, significantly below the global average of 15%, indicating a need for continued accumulation to diversify reserves [8] - The increase in gold reserves is expected to enhance international trust in the RMB, supporting trade models that involve "RMB pricing + gold settlement" in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [8][9] Group 4 - The recent foreign reserve data alleviates concerns over exchange rate fluctuations, stabilizing expectations for import-export enterprises and reducing hedging costs [9] - The surge in China's gold ETF size by 223% in 2025, from 73 billion to 236.1 billion, demonstrates the positive market impact of the central bank's gold accumulation [9][12] - The combination of stable foreign reserves and a reasonable reserve structure is likely to attract foreign investment, enhancing confidence in the Chinese market [12]

Core Viewpoints - The evolution of the international monetary system has consistently exhibited a stable "center-periphery" structure, where a few currencies dominate while the majority remain peripheral [2][3][4] - The stability of the monetary order is rooted in the nature of money as a "high-order belief," where individuals accept currency based on mutual trust in its value and acceptance by others [2][28] - The transition from one dominant currency to another is rare and often requires a combination of economic shifts and institutional reforms to facilitate the emergence of a new center [3][4] Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The historical perspective shows that the monetary order has maintained internal stability, with dominant currencies typically lasting one to two centuries [5][6] - The shift from the Spanish dollar to the Dutch guilder marked a transition from metal-based currency to credit-based systems, emphasizing the importance of financial innovation and institutional credibility [9][11] - The establishment of the classical gold standard in the 19th century created a more structured international monetary order, driven by the need for exchange rate stability and transaction efficiency [12][13] The Role of Trust and Institutional Frameworks - The essence of money is a social contract based on trust, where its value is derived from the issuer's commitment to honor debts [27][28] - Sovereign currencies differ from commodity or cryptocurrency due to state backing and legal tender status, ensuring their acceptance and circulation [28][29] - The natural monopoly of money arises from network effects, where increased usage enhances liquidity and reduces transaction costs, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle [29][30] Current Trends and Future Outlook - The current dollar-centric system is facing challenges as global trade and capital flows diversify, with potential for the renminbi to rise as a reserve currency through reforms and market-driven mechanisms [5][26] - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with emerging economies seeking greater independence in currency management and exchange rate flexibility [25][26] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and financial sanctions have prompted a reassessment of the dollar's safety as an asset, leading to increased diversification in the global monetary landscape [26][39]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical performance of gold, its current valuation, and investment considerations, emphasizing the impact of various factors such as inflation, monetary policy, and market conditions on gold prices [4][6][70]. Historical Performance of Gold - Over the past 200 years, gold has slightly outperformed inflation, with a long-term annualized return of around 0.6% after adjusting for inflation [6][7]. - Since 1971, when the U.S. abandoned the gold standard, gold's long-term annualized return has significantly increased to 8.89% [10][12]. - Gold has experienced three major bull and bear market cycles since 1971, with notable price fluctuations [15][18][20]. Recent Market Trends - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, gold and other major asset classes have seen an overall increase [4]. - The current market has experienced a recent correction after a significant rise, coinciding with new tax regulations on gold investments [4][66]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The primary factor affecting gold prices is the U.S. dollar's real interest rate, which is calculated as nominal interest rate minus inflation rate [31][32]. - Other influencing factors include mining costs, geopolitical risks, and financial crises, which often drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [37][43][70]. Valuation Assessment - Gold's valuation can be assessed using the ratio of gold price to average mining costs, with a price below mining costs indicating a strong buying opportunity [46][49]. - As of November 3, 2025, gold is rated at approximately 1.1 stars, suggesting it is not currently undervalued [49][64]. Investment Strategies - There are three primary purposes for investing in gold: decorative (jewelry), short-term investment (gold funds), and long-term hedging (physical gold) [55][56]. - Decisions on whether to take profits or continue holding gold should be based on the initial investment purpose and current market conditions [62][64]. Tax Implications - New tax regulations effective November 1, 2025, will impose differentiated tax rates on gold based on its use, affecting the cost of purchasing gold jewelry while maintaining lower costs for investment-grade gold [66][69].