1. Investment Rating of the Report - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pulp is expected to remain loose, with an increase in exports from three South American countries in September. Although the offer price of hardwood pulp has risen for two consecutive periods, the offer price of softwood pulp has declined [4]. - Demand is weak. Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers have not increased significantly. Paper mills maintain just - in - time replenishment, which does not boost pulp prices [4]. - Pulp inventory shows a narrow - range destocking trend. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a decrease of 0.003 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [4]. - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts is high. It is recommended to wait and see. The trading strategy is a 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and attention should be paid to the destocking of pulp warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp showed a mixed trend, and overall supply is expected to remain loose [4]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp papers did not rise significantly, and paper mills' replenishment did not boost pulp prices [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased slightly [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: A 12 - 1 reverse arbitrage is recommended, and it is advisable to wait and see due to the lack of upward driving force and high old warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp futures fluctuated at a low level, and the old warehouse receipt problem has not been resolved, suppressing the near - month contract [8]. - **Spot Market**: Hardwood pulp prices were stable, while softwood pulp prices declined. For example, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of hardwood pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased [20]. - **Position**: As of October 24, 2025, the total position of pulp futures decreased by 10.45% from the previous week, and the position of the main contract decreased by 11.98% [23]. 3.3 Part Three: Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In September, the import volume of pulp and wood chips increased. The total pulp import volume was 2.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.27% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts was stable. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of hardwood pulp mills was stable [34][39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of white cardboard increased, while other paper types were stable. In September 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper types was stable [41][50][57]. - **International Demand**: In September 2025, the inventory - available days of European softwood pulp and hardwood pulp decreased, indicating a demand recovery. In the United States, demand was stable [75]. 3.4 Part Four: Valuation of Pulp Futures - **Basis**: As of October 24, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle and Shandong Silver Star weakened [84]. - **Spread**: The 11 - 1 month spread of pulp shrank [84]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 24, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp decreased slightly, while that of hardwood pulp increased slightly [88].